I don’t think conferences can negotiate against some of their members. If partial PAC/B12 talks happened, it would be among the individual schools.
Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
- Thread starter ISUcyclones11
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Oregon for sure and possibly UW and Utah would be the PAC schools that boost the per team media value in a simple assessment. The rest would not, with the exception being inventory for the late slot, though that value seems to be lessened.
And in regard to the late slot, AZ time and a couple mountain time zone schools could fit that fine. Having mountain zone schools chip in a few local 8 pm kicks would fill that.
I've been of the opinion that Fox wants Saturday after dark and USC and UCLA was the first domino to fall. They need more content, but would prefer Big 12 payments than Big 10. I suspect all Big 12 and Pac schools targeted want more than the current 32 million, but not so much as to make Oregon and Washington worth moving to the Big 10. A lot to negotiate.
Semantics.
We need to pull PAC teams to kill/disfigure it. Whether that’s 4 or 8. A few million in per team revenue is worth finishing off the PAC as anything but mountain west level.
A lot can happen over another round. Streaming could be legitimate next time, leadership changes, ESPN’s ACC figures out how to be the 3rd conference and hunts for B12 and PAC.
The Big 12 and Iowa St in particular see huge risk reduction by gutting the PAC this cycle, and that’s worth a few million/year from taking schools out of the money (imo, taking any but Oregon and UW is doing that)
The last is an important factor. There is an existential move for the Big 12. Locking down geography reduces the risk of being left out of a breakaway by SEC and Big 10. If you have Utah, Colorado, Arizona and Kansas it helps. Eliminating a decent sized chunk of the country from the top level of CFB might not make financial sense, yet I doubt the numbers work to poach a bunch of those schools. So it likely ends up the most economical route for the Big 10 and SEC to poach Oregon, Washington, the top half of the ACC, and include a Big 12 w/ the 4 corner schools.
I think package in/package out makes more sense than a GOR. A 10+ year GOR is going to be a tough sell for a lot of schools. If the state says they couldn’t possibly split up their schools, that has to remain true even if one of them gets a golden ticket. Remember, the B12 is in a position of strength and should negotiate as such. If they grab some combination of the corner schools, WAOR are in very a tough spot. Getting 1 into the B12 is a better scenario than having 2 stuck in the PAC that primarily consists of the MWC.
It was long assumed OU and Okie St were a package deal. Before that, Texas, A&M and TT were all tied together. Until they weren’t.
Now we’re talking- take whatever number it takes to kill the PAC, don’t worry about value or maxing revenue imo. If that’s just 4, great. If it’s 6, that’s fine. Likely 8 is the max imo, as eventually the P2 will take that 20 school Big 12 down to 16 or 18 (likely at the time when ACC schools become available).
My prior comment was because previously you said take the 4-6 that have value. There likely aren’t that many that have value $30+ million in value themselves. Their value is in the macros as their departure should bring more PAC schools thus removing the PAC as a major conference. If we need to take all 4C schools, 2-3 of which likely don’t add value in themselves, to get Oregon and UW, we clearly should.
This is contentious, but Imo if somehow an invite to SDSU were to help AZ and ASU jump, that would be worth it long term too. Ideally we’d only take SDSU next round after PAC subsidizes their brand, similar to how Utah used a decade in PAC to distance themselves from G5 brand. At the very least, we need to drive SDSU’s price up, so that the PAC can’t appease Oregon and UW with unequal revenue sharing
What’s with the SDSU fixation? IMO, Colorado is a questionable add. SDSU is no different than Colorado but with 1/4th the fanbase and none of the history in a region that somehow cares even less about college sports.
Agree.
If the Big 12 can get to a P3 (really a P2+1) setup, it doesn’t really matter how much our revenue/school is.
We need to be the clear “other guy” to the BIG/SEC that has the only auto CFP berths outside of BIG and SEC. A catch-all for nearly all other schools from the P5 era. Critical mass so that separation is not feasible or profitable for networks. And ideally the consolidation of “other” P5 schools happens as soon as possible.
a full merger doesn’t make sense, but a Mountain West rebranded as PAC with Oregon St, WSU, Stanford, Cal, and SMU is as already better than what is ideal. People will want them to have a spot in CFP. Frankly, I’d rather have the BIG indulge by taking Cal and Stanford
What fixation? It was a hypothetical in which interest/invite to SDSU is an acceptable cost IF it gets other PAC schools (most likely AZ and ASU) to jump this round. Likely also acceptable cost because they wouldn’t require full shares.
The Big 12 definitely should make the share % the PAC must offer higher.
I don’t see why the AZ schools would want SDSU in PAC. That’s an equalizer for SDSU, resulting in more competition for BIG leftovers. If they’re going to be in a conference with SDSU, best it be because they killed the PAC as a major conference. This means whatever PAC schools left out are in basically the MWC and behind AZ/ASU
Why hasn’t the PAC offered SDSU membership to shore up a conference that’s looking very shaky? Why didn’t the B12 add them in 2021? Because the people who have access to the data know they’re not worth it.
As an aside, any unequal revenue distribution for full members beyond the first couple of years is exactly what doomed the B12. No way that’s worth trying again.
The B12 doesn’t need to add anyone outside the P5 to induce PAC members to jump. They offer two things: more money and more stability. SDSU hurts one of those factors.
Everyone knows this, but people keep coming up with weird hypotheticals to shoehorn SDSU in. I don’t get the allure.
Pretty much in agreement.
But there are two options for the Big12 and not sure there is a wrong choice. The Big12 can be very selective and add 2-4 teams. That could actually increase media revenue $2-$3M per school if Utah, Washington & Oregon are added.
The second approach would be to add 6-8 schools. Using my guestimate values in a prior post, adding all but Cal/Stanford would drop the Big12 media rights from $31.7 to $31.2M. Why quibble over $500k?
Remember, the whole ESPN/FOX Big12 deal is worth $31.2M per school. The new 12 team Playoff is projected to be around $22M per school. That's a bump around $16M per Pac12 team. The Big12 schools could take a cut off the Pac12 schools Playoff $.
That's why there is a recent buzz about the Pac12 adding Rice, UNLV, etc. beyond SDSU & SMU. Every P5 school will bring a conference around $22M annually in Playoff money. The Pac12 can add those schools, give the newbies $15 and distribute the difference to current Pac10 members. Each could make up $3-$5M annually. That would help close the gap between what Amazon/ESPN have offered and the Big12's extension.
Why not? The Pac12 schools don't have a GOR or Media deal beyond June 30, 2024. They are essentially free agents.
Its all semantics. Yormark could put together a deal and have a consultant approach select Pac12 schools and let them know they have also approached these other schools with the same deal. The schools can converse among themselves or come to the consultant/Big12 on their own. Obviously, ASU & UA would probably converse. The others, might come back unilaterally.
The conference represents all current members, they’d never legally be allowed to negotiate to exclude some in a merger. It may be just semantics to you, but legally it’s really not.
There is no way the league is taking OSU and WSU without their sister school, and we shouldn't. No one knows if they are tied together, I am like you I would have said OU and OSU were also together until OU left.
The only way we get Oregon and Washington is to make the P12 unstable, and force them to move, with the B10 and SEC both passing, because they both want ACC teams more. That is why you offer the 2 Arizona schools now, and hope they take the offer and jump, setting up a domino effect, causing other schools to look to jump so they do not get left out. But you place Oregon St. and Washington St. at the bottom of the deck. The league really does not need them, nor will they bring in enough money to be worth the offer.
You're talking apples and oranges. The conferences are only going to negotiate for their full slate. If part of the PAC and part of the B12 broke off to form a new conference, they'd do that without the conference working on their behalf. If the B12 is going to take on some PAC members, it's working with those schools and not the PAC.
I think that's about what happens, ultimately. WAOR might be fine riding out 1 more crappy PAC media deal thinking they have a shot to get into the B10. That makes the corner schools vulnerable. Taking that deal without having any hopes of getting a payday at the end is just delaying the inevitable and turning down money in the interim.
Then there's how they stack up against ACC schools down the road. If the B12 is offering a seat at the table now, is that seat still there in 5-10 years when the ACC is on the verge of restructuring? If it looks like being in the B12 is their best case scenario in 10 years, doesn't it make sense to grab the ring now knowing it's also their best case-scenario for the next 5 years?
Agree. We didn't hear anything about WSU & OSU being part of the package when Washington & Oregon were courting the Big10. But I expect both schools knew they were fighting an uphill battle.
But we did see the CA BOR try to tie Cal to UCLA. And essentially Stanford to USC.
But if Washington and Oregon legislators feel they have some leverage, they could force the package issue. But the $22M per school playoff money gives both Big12 and the 4 Oregon/Washington schools some wiggle room.
No it wont, because the Big 12 will also be getting that playoff money. So it wont close the gap, it will just remain the same if both get the same amount for the playoff, because it is not paid per team, it is paid per conference, and divided. Just because you add teams doesnt automatically give you another 22M each team.