Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[AuH2O]

It basically says there are West Coast media shills who are spoon fed messaging by the Pac12 and run with it as fact. Basically, the Pac12's attempt to control messaging to prop up the Pac12 & discredit Big12.

In this case the two messages are:

1. The Big12 only has 1 AAU school, while the Pac12 has 6. The Pac12 is pushing the narrative that if Pac12 schools join Big12, they will lose research funding.
2. The Big12 is talking to Fresno State, which Pac12 shills want people to equate that the Big12 is in negotiations with Fresno State. If the Big12 would consider such an inferior school, why would Pac12 schools consider joining such an academically deficit, low brow conference.

At this point, it seems about clicks and YouTube views vs. providing news worthy content. They have to construe some messaging to stay relevant.

First, if anybody thinks what sports conference a school is in affects AAU status, they should be ignored as it has nothing to do with it.

Second, people that think the sports conference you are in has an impact on research dollars also has no idea how it works. ISU could join the PAC or MWC tomorrow, and in both cases there would be absolutely zero affect on research dollars.

CW and others keep saying this about conference affiliation making or costing millions in research dollars for schools.

I’ll say this again. This is not at all how it works in any way. Athletic conference does not impact actual research dollars. No research dollars flow to conferences. Zero. People use the Big 10 research alliance or whatever it’s called because they post some big $ amount in research. That is simply the sum of research dollars among Big 10 schools. Read their reports. It’s like saving a few $ by pooling admin resources, sharing license costs. It’s nothing.

 

[NWICY]

Fresno State zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

 

[Clonehomer]

Just get this over with already...

Big 12 should make a take it or leave it deal to the 4 corners. If they don't want to jump, we move on and wait for Clemson, FSU, UNC, and UVA to de-stabilize the ACC. You can still play everyone home and home in a 12 team conference.

The only people that want this over are the fans. The conferences don't care how long this extends out as long as they have TV contracts. So the only conference on the clock right now is the PAC because of that TV contract running out. The Big12 should just leave the offer on their desk and walk away and wait for the phone call. They have no incentive to rush this or really any downside to staying at 12 and watching the PAC fall behind financially.

 

[isucy86]

Just get this over with already...

Big 12 should make a take it or leave it deal to the 4 corners. If they don't want to jump, we move on and wait for Clemson, FSU, UNC, and UVA to de-stabilize the ACC. You can still play everyone home and home in a 12 team conference.

Agree. The Big12 has to give Pac12 schools an offer.

Hopefully, behind the scenes Yormark has been in conversations with ESPN & FOX about adding Pac12 programs and which teams they value to keep the $32M per school payout.

If ESPN/Fox aren't interested, then approach other potential media partners. I would think the Big12 & Pac12 media rights values would increase if the conferences joined because of exposure to new markets. And in the case of Pac12 schools, provide them kickoff times in eastern & central time zones.

 

[Stormin]

Agree. The Big12 has to give Pac12 schools an offer.

Hopefully, behind the scenes Yormark has been in conversations with ESPN & FOX about adding Pac12 programs and which teams they value to keep the $32M per school payout.

If ESPN/Fox aren't interested, then approach other potential media partners. I would think the Big12 & Pac12 media rights values would increase if the conferences joined because of exposure to new markets. And in the case of Pac12 schools, provide them kickoff times in eastern & central time zones.

There will be a Big 12. PAC 12 teams will be added. There is absolutely zero advantage to merge with PAC 12. That is an idiotic move. And you keep pushing a merger of some sort. Why?

 

[Clonehomer]

Agree. The Big12 has to give Pac12 schools an offer.

Hopefully, behind the scenes Yormark has been in conversations with ESPN & FOX about adding Pac12 programs and which teams they value to keep the $32M per school payout.

If ESPN/Fox aren't interested, then approach other potential media partners. I would think the Big12 & Pac12 media rights values would increase if the conferences joined because of exposure to new markets. And in the case of Pac12 schools, provide them kickoff times in eastern & central time zones.

I think we e already established that half the PAC schools are an anchor on the rest. So merging is not an answer. Take the 4-6 schools that have value and let the rest merge with the MWC to be with like sized athletic departments.

 

[isucy86]

There will be a Big 12. PAC 12 teams will be added. There is absolutely zero advantage to merge with PAC 12. That is an idiotic move. And you keep pushing a merger of some sort. Why?

I support adding all Pac12 teams that would keep the Big12 media rights deal above $32M per school. If that includes Washington State, Cal, etc- then I am good. As long as ESPN/FOX are willing to pay.

I am not naive enough to think all 10 can support $32M/school.

I view it as a friendly merger/consolidation, not a hostile takeover.

 

[WhoISthis]

I think we e already established that half the PAC schools are an anchor on the rest. So merging is not an answer. Take the 4-6 schools that have value and let the rest merge with the MWC to be with like sized athletic departments.

That’s a little shortsighted Imo. This isn’t about maxing the per team revenue.

Just like Yormark gave up a few million to jump ahead of PAC, we’ll give up a few million more to kill the PAC. If that means adding some out of the money schools, we’ll do it. If there’s no PAC, the per team revenue isn’t as important.

And in terms of taking on the ACC and getting 4-6 schools, that will ultimately be decided by ESPN, but having brands the ACC schools find as peers will help

 

[BCClone]

That’s a little shortsighted Imo. This isn’t about maxing the per team revenue.

Just like Yormark gave up a few million to jump ahead of PAC, we’ll give up a few million more to kill the PAC. If that means adding some out of the money schools, we’ll do it. If there’s no PAC, the per team revenue isn’t as important.

And in terms of taking on the ACC and getting 4-6 schools, that will ultimately be decided by ESPN, but having brands the ACC schools find as peers will help

I don't need to kill the PAC just hamstring it so they appear as second rate. They are almost there, if they are nearly all streaming, we really can just be patient and let them fade away some. That would allow us to grab 2 teams and that would send it down to near AAC status.

 

[Clonehomer]

That’s a little shortsighted Imo. This isn’t about maxing the per team revenue.

Just like Yormark gave up a few million to jump ahead of PAC, we’ll give up a few million more to kill the PAC. If that means adding some out of the money schools, we’ll do it. If there’s no PAC, the per team revenue isn’t as important.

And in terms of taking on the ACC and getting 4-6 schools, that will ultimately be decided by ESPN, but having brands the ACC schools find as peers will help

You can kill the PAC by taking 4 teams. You do not need to take OSU and WSU to do so. Technically, the PAC may survive with those schools, but when Stanford and Cal are your top schools, it really isn't much competition.

 

[LLCoolCY]

as of now?! Yeesh…



Then the smoke continues from Dodds. (Double Yeesh)

 

[Clonehomer]

as of now?! Yeesh…



Then the smoke continues from Dodds. (Double Yeesh)

Both of these make a lot of sense to rebuild the conference after the Big12 takes 4-6 teams. Perhaps the PAC already knows it's coming? The name value would make it worthwhile for the remaining teams to rebuild rather than find a new home.

 

[Stormin]

I support adding all Pac12 teams that would keep the Big12 media rights deal above $32M per school. If that includes Washington State, Cal, etc- then I am good. As long as ESPN/FOX are willing to pay.

I am not naive enough to think all 10 can support $32M/school.

I view it as a friendly merger/consolidation, not a hostile takeover.

If the value of Washington State, Cal, and Oregon State was $32 million each, the PAC 12 would have a new media contract. Why fill up our Conference with the bottom of the PAC 12? PAC 12 thought it was fine for Iowa State to drop to Mountain West or the AAC. PAC 12 took Colorado and started Conference poaching along with the B1G.

I see our offer to take a select few as a lifeline they would be wise to take.

 

[IceCyIce]

The PAC will most likely survive this revenue cycle (TV Contract). It will be mostly streaming reducing the PAC school brands. There could be defections (4 corners) and additions SDST, UNLV, SMU, Rice, Fresno or others? Remove large brands add smaller G5's but the current TV contract will be enough to keep th PAC alive. The next contract will kill the PAC making them Mountain West competitors.

 

[exCyDing]

That’s a little shortsighted Imo. This isn’t about maxing the per team revenue.

Just like Yormark gave up a few million to jump ahead of PAC, we’ll give up a few million more to kill the PAC. If that means adding some out of the money schools, we’ll do it. If there’s no PAC, the per team revenue isn’t as important.

And in terms of taking on the ACC and getting 4-6 schools, that will ultimately be decided by ESPN, but having brands the ACC schools find as peers will help

It is about maintaining per school revenues. The ACC is going to get poached by the B10 and SEC in about 10 years. It will be poach or be poached between the ACC and B12. I think we’re in a solid spot now, and adding from the PAC can strengthen that position.

Besides, full merger talks between the B12 and PAC were discussed last summer. The B12 cut it off pretty quick because it was apparent the numbers were far from working.

 

[isucy86]

If the value of Washington State, Cal, and Oregon State was $32 million each, the PAC 12 would have a new media contract. Why fill up our Conference with the bottom of the PAC 12? PAC 12 thought it was fine for Iowa State to drop to Mountain West or the AAC. PAC 12 took Colorado and started Conference poaching along with the B1G.

I see our offer to take a select few as a lifeline they would be wise to take.

I agree, that's why I said I am not naive to believe all 10 would bring $32M.

What I am saying is, I am not a media rights value expert. I will leave that up to ESPN & FOX to decide which schools are worth $32M annually! ESPN & Fox might value Cal or Stanford since they are in the SF media market. Do I personally think either school would bring $32M annually from ESPN/Fox- no.

So now look at Oregon State & Washington State. Standalone are they worth $32M? Obviously no. But what if Washington tells the Big12 it would only join as a package deal with Washington State. ESPN/Fox valued both Washington schools at $64M- so a financial breakeven for the Big12. Do you take both schools? Oregon could make a similar demand.

How bad does the Big12 want Washington/Oregon? It's no secret that Washington & Oregon long-term want to be in the Big10. Would the Big12 still take those schools as a package, knowing there is a strong possibility the more valuable schools could be gone in 6 years? Would the Big12 want contractual language up front that if Washington/Oregon leave the Big12 that it endangers WSU & OSU's position in the Big12 in 2031?

Which Pac12 schools do I think are worth more than $32M each? Washington, Oregon, Arizona State and Utah. If I had to speculate, Washington & Oregon are worth more than $45M each. Arizona State & Utah around $37M. Then CU & UA are around $25M each. I would put Stanford, Cal, OSU & WSU around $15M each.

So using my wild a$$ guesses, that would mean the 4 corner schools at $31M each would not add value to the Big12's current deal which pays each school $31.7M from ESPN/Fox. But it's damn close, so I doubt the TV side or Big12 Presidents would quibble.

Same goes for a Washington/WSU or Oregon/OSU combination ($30M each). Again I think the TV folks & Big12 Presidents would say we are not going to quibble over that amount of money. Especially when Presidents & AD's know that a 12 team CFB Playoff will bring $20M+ annually per conference school. And that doesn't even include additional payouts to the 12 Playoff teams.

IMO, the bigger issue is whether ESPN & Fox want that additional game inventory. And if they don't how would the Big12 shoehorn another partner into the current agreement with ESPN/Fox. The rumor is Amazon wants the Pac12's tier one rights. That would not work as ESPN/Fox already have lead position in it's TV deal with the Big12. But would ESPN/Fox compromise and allow an Amazon, Apple, etc. to have Tier 1 rights on Pac12 teams? Or some other compromise.

In the end, I thing the bigger the Big12 is the better. If that is a Big12/Pac12 consolidation that is 20 teams- awesome!!! I don't necessarily look at the new 20 teams as a conference as maybe a TRUE scheduling alliance With each Big12 team playing 1 or 2 games annually against a Pac8 team.

IMO there is something more to ohio state ducking Washington. I don't necessarily want to see it happen, but is that a sign the CyHawk game might come to an end?

 

[isucy86]

It is about maintaining per school revenues. The ACC is going to get poached by the B10 and SEC in about 10 years. It will be poach or be poached between the ACC and B12. I think we’re in a solid spot now, and adding from the PAC can strengthen that position.

Besides, full merger talks between the B12 and PAC were discussed last summer. The B12 cut it off pretty quick because it was apparent the numbers were far from working.

Do we really know why merger talks were ended Obviously, the numbers could have been a reason.

But could it also have been both conferences wanted removal of certain schools from the merger? I could see Pac12 maybe not wanting: BYU, Cincy, UCF, UH or WVU. Likewise maybe the Big12 said Washington State and Oregon State should be excluded.

Also, there is now a lot of chatter that Kliavkoff promised Pac12 Presidents & AD's a new agreement between $40-$50M per school. Based on Yormark's decision to do an extension, the conferences couldn't have been further apart on the approach for a new agreement- open market vs. extension.

It appears the Big12 judged the market place correctly and Kliavkoff has maybe 60 days to bring a solid proposal to Pac12 Presidents & AD's. If he can't, by shortly after the Final Four, the Pac10 is done.

 

[exCyDing]

I agree, that's why I said I am not naive to believe all 10 would bring $32M.

What I am saying is, I am not a media rights value expert. I will leave that up to ESPN & FOX to decide which schools are worth $32M annually! ESPN & Fox might value Cal or Stanford since they are in the SF media market. Do I personally think either school would bring $32M annually from ESPN/Fox- no.

So now look at Oregon State & Washington State. Standalone are they worth $32M? Obviously no. But what if Washington tells the Big12 it would only join as a package deal with Washington State. ESPN/Fox valued both Washington schools at $64M- so a financial breakeven for the Big12. Do you take both schools? Oregon could make a similar demand.

How bad does the Big12 want Washington/Oregon? It's no secret that Washington & Oregon long-term want to be in the Big10. Would the Big12 still take those schools as a package, knowing there is a strong possibility the more valuable schools could be gone in 6 years? Would the Big12 want contractual language up front that if Washington/Oregon leave the Big12 that it endangers WSU & OSU's position in the Big12 in 2031?

Which Pac12 schools do I think are worth more than $32M each? Washington, Oregon, Arizona State and Utah. If I had to speculate, Washington & Oregon are worth more than $45M each. Arizona State & Utah around $37M. Then CU & UA are around $25M each. I would put Stanford, Cal, OSU & WSU around $15M each.

So using my wild a$$ guesses, that would mean the 4 corner schools at $31M each would not add value to the Big12's current deal which pays each school $31.7M from ESPN/Fox. But it's damn close, so I doubt the TV side or Big12 Presidents would quibble.

Same goes for a Washington/WSU or Oregon/OSU combination ($30M each). Again I think the TV folks & Big12 Presidents would say we are not going to quibble over that amount of money. Especially when Presidents & AD's know that a 12 team CFB Playoff will bring $20M+ annually per conference school. And that doesn't even include additional payouts to the 12 Playoff teams.

IMO, the bigger issue is whether ESPN & Fox want that additional game inventory. And if they don't how would the Big12 shoehorn another partner into the current agreement with ESPN/Fox. The rumor is Amazon wants the Pac12's tier one rights. That would not work as ESPN/Fox already have lead position in it's TV deal with the Big12. But would ESPN/Fox compromise and allow an Amazon, Apple, etc. to have Tier 1 rights on Pac12 teams? Or some other compromise.

In the end, I thing the bigger the Big12 is the better. If that is a Big12/Pac12 consolidation that is 20 teams- awesome!!! I don't necessarily look at the new 20 teams as a conference as maybe a TRUE scheduling alliance With each Big12 team playing 1 or 2 games annually against a Pac8 team.

IMO there is something more to ohio state ducking Washington. I don't necessarily want to see it happen, but is that a sign the CyHawk game might come to an end?

If any states insist on packaging their schools, I think there’s a case to be made that their continued membership is a package deal. For example, if WA and WA St are a package to get into the B12, the conference has an option to retain WA St should WA get a B10/SEC invite.

The B12 is in a very unfamiliar position of power at the moment. They’re well ahead of the PAC and don’t need to add anyone. If the PAC had anything on the table from the networks that topped the B12, IMO, they’d take it and start trying to poach from the B12. They don’t have a better deal in the works, hence the delay.

Whatever grouping of PAC teams the B12 invites, it has to maintain or grow the per-school right now. I’m not inclined to support taking on members that drag it down. The PAC will continue as a conference, and schools that get left behind don’t really have another option. They’ll still be there should the B12 want to revisit when the ACC gets restructured.

The key is maintaining and solidifying the B12’s position as the #3 conference. That’s what allows us to be choosy.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

I agree, that's why I said I am not naive to believe all 10 would bring $32M.

What I am saying is, I am not a media rights value expert. I will leave that up to ESPN & FOX to decide which schools are worth $32M annually! ESPN & Fox might value Cal or Stanford since they are in the SF media market. Do I personally think either school would bring $32M annually from ESPN/Fox- no.

So now look at Oregon State & Washington State. Standalone are they worth $32M? Obviously no. But what if Washington tells the Big12 it would only join as a package deal with Washington State. ESPN/Fox valued both Washington schools at $64M- so a financial breakeven for the Big12. Do you take both schools? Oregon could make a similar demand.

How bad does the Big12 want Washington/Oregon? It's no secret that Washington & Oregon long-term want to be in the Big10. Would the Big12 still take those schools as a package, knowing there is a strong possibility the more valuable schools could be gone in 6 years? Would the Big12 want contractual language up front that if Washington/Oregon leave the Big12 that it endangers WSU & OSU's position in the Big12 in 2031?

Which Pac12 schools do I think are worth more than $32M each? Washington, Oregon, Arizona State and Utah. If I had to speculate, Washington & Oregon are worth more than $45M each. Arizona State & Utah around $37M. Then CU & UA are around $25M each. I would put Stanford, Cal, OSU & WSU around $15M each.

So using my wild a$$ guesses, that would mean the 4 corner schools at $31M each would not add value to the Big12's current deal which pays each school $31.7M from ESPN/Fox. But it's damn close, so I doubt the TV side or Big12 Presidents would quibble.

Same goes for a Washington/WSU or Oregon/OSU combination ($30M each). Again I think the TV folks & Big12 Presidents would say we are not going to quibble over that amount of money. Especially when Presidents & AD's know that a 12 team CFB Playoff will bring $20M+ annually per conference school. And that doesn't even include additional payouts to the 12 Playoff teams.

IMO, the bigger issue is whether ESPN & Fox want that additional game inventory. And if they don't how would the Big12 shoehorn another partner into the current agreement with ESPN/Fox. The rumor is Amazon wants the Pac12's tier one rights. That would not work as ESPN/Fox already have lead position in it's TV deal with the Big12. But would ESPN/Fox compromise and allow an Amazon, Apple, etc. to have Tier 1 rights on Pac12 teams? Or some other compromise.

In the end, I thing the bigger the Big12 is the better. If that is a Big12/Pac12 consolidation that is 20 teams- awesome!!! I don't necessarily look at the new 20 teams as a conference as maybe a TRUE scheduling alliance With each Big12 team playing 1 or 2 games annually against a Pac8 team.

IMO there is something more to ohio state ducking Washington. I don't necessarily want to see it happen, but is that a sign the CyHawk game might come to an end?

The only way you take Oregon ST and Washington St into the conference is a package deal is if both Oregon and Washington agree to a long term GOR. The last thing the B12 needs is to bring in those four schools and then 5 years later, the B10 or SEC expands again and Oregon and Washington jump for the money, and the conference is left with OSU and WSU.

No way do I see Oregon or Washington locking themselves up long term into the B12, unless all options of joining the B10 or SEC are gone., even if it mean keeping their sister schools in a P5 conference.

 

[Clonehomer]

The only way you take Oregon ST and Washington St into the conference is a package deal is if both Oregon and Washington agree to a long term GOR. The last thing the B12 needs is to bring in those four schools and then 5 years later, the B10 or SEC expands again and Oregon and Washington jump for the money, and the conference is left with OSU and WSU.

No way do I see Oregon or Washington locking themselves up long term into the B12, unless all options of joining the B10 or SEC are gone., even if it mean keeping their sister schools in a P5 conference.

I'm not sure that UO and UW are worth it with the baggage of OSU and WSU. Even if they agree to a long GOR. They would be valuable additions, but not that valuable.