The Hodge

[isufan2]

If David Carr wins at 165. He should win the Hodge hands down. Toughest weight and 3 National Champs at that weight. 197 is tough also. Spencer Lee has the weakest weight and has only wrestled 1/2 the year. GO DAVID!!!!

 

[wxman1]

He may have only wrestled half the year but the half he has done probably seals it for him.

 

[crablegs]

David Carr should not win the Hodge unless several people happen to lose.

 

[TheJackWePack5]

It will be Spencer Lee.

 

[JM4CY]

It will be Spencer Lee.

Yup.

 

[enisthemenace]

It will be Spencer Lee.

Unless something crazy happens, it will be Spencer, for sure. The Wrestling Nomad put out a tweet today comparing Carr and RBY which was really interesting to think about, and I think shows how difficult it can be to sort through that award unless you have a Gable Steveson or Spencer Lee type. His tweet basically said Carr picked up a win last night that RBY simply cannot achieve, which complicates the Hodge discussion between just those two.

I took that and decided to dig into the numbers a bit more.

RBY has a great resume…on the surface. He is 12-0 with 83% of his matches resulting in bonus.

David is 18-0 (not counting non-D1 comp), with 50% of his matches resulting in bonus.

Again…on the surface, RBY would be ahead of Carr simply based off of dominance stats. However…RBY’s schedule has been INCREDIBLY soft compared to Carr‘s.

Just looking at Wrestlestat (you can look at any other ranking service and it’s pretty close), RBY has only wrestled/beaten 2 guys in the top 10 at 133, with one being a true freshman (granted…that guy is Jesse Mendez). He won both via regular decision. The average ranking of RBY’s opponents is 50.8.

Carr has wrestled/beaten 4 guys in the top 10, including the reigning, unbeaten champ at 165. He has also taken down #11 (Kennedy) and #12 (Facundo). That’s 6 matches in the top 12, all by regular decision. If you just look at Carr’s top 12 matches, so that his activity is the same as RBY’s, Carr’s opponent average ranking is 16.2.

I tried to take RBY’s schedule and match it up by “like opponents” by ranking to Carr, and the “dominance” stat is a hell of a lot closer if you look at it that way. Bonus starts coming into play when the opponent is ranked 20+ for both. RBY has bonus point victories over everyone ranked #23 and above. Carr has bonus point victories over everyone ranked #21 and above, except #25 Holden Heller (Pitt; 7-3).

I know…long, but I thought interesting.

 

[isufan2]

Unless something crazy happens, it will be Spencer, for sure. The Wrestling Nomad put out a tweet today comparing Carr and RBY which was really interesting to think about, and I think shows how difficult it can be to sort through that award unless you have a Gable Steveson or Spencer Lee type. His tweet basically said Carr picked up a win last night that RBY simply cannot achieve, which complicates the Hodge discussion between just those two.

I took that and decided to dig into the numbers a bit more.

RBY has a great resume…on the surface. He is 12-0 with 83% of his matches resulting in bonus.

David is 18-0 (not counting non-D1 comp), with 50% of his matches resulting in bonus.

Again…on the surface, RBY would be ahead of Carr simply based off of dominance stats. However…RBY’s schedule has been INCREDIBLY soft compared to Carr‘s.

Just looking at Wrestlestat (you can look at any other ranking service and it’s pretty close), RBY has only wrestled/beaten 2 guys in the top 10 at 133, with one being a true freshman (granted…that guy is Jesse Mendez). He won both via regular decision. The average ranking of RBY’s opponents is 50.8.

Carr has wrestled/beaten 4 guys in the top 10, including the reigning, unbeaten champ at 165. He has also taken down #11 (Kennedy) and #12 (Facundo). That’s 6 matches in the top 12, all by regular decision. If you just look at Carr’s top 12 matches, so that his activity is the same as RBY’s, Carr’s opponent average ranking is 16.2.

I tried to take RBY’s schedule and match it up by “like opponents” by ranking to Carr, and the “dominance” stat is a hell of a lot closer if you look at it that way. Bonus starts coming into play when the opponent is ranked 20+ for both. RBY has bonus point victories over everyone ranked #23 and above. Carr has bonus point victories over everyone ranked #21 and above, except #25 Holden Heller (Pitt; 7-3).

I know…long, but I thought interesting.

Now you see why I posted this. I figured Lee had a good chance of being beaten. Now Carr has to do his job and win.!!!