Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[AuH2O]

Unless the SEC/Big Ten add every single significant program in Texas and Florida there will be teams outside those two conferences occasionally rising up and playing very elite football despite any media cash disadvantage.

Of course the same could occur with other programs in any state who have the right coach and fan/alumni support...but I don't think it's even particularly difficult for programs like Baylor, Houston, TCU, Florida State, SMU, Miami, UCF to field very good football teams without the SEC/Big Ten advantages. Even a place like Cincy or Pitt might deserve mention here because Ohio State and Penn St can only take so many local top recruits from those high talent states.

The other way to end that "rising up" reality is to literally breakaway where Big Ten/SEC teams don't play anybody else at all anymore.

The Big 10 has had a massive cash advantage over everyone in the Big 12 outside of OU and UT forever. While the absolute dollar amount difference is unprecedented, the percentage difference is nothing new.

If we've learned anything during the last couple decades is the marginal benefit of that money is pretty damn small these days. The game changer would be if schools figure out a way and have the willingness to play ball with collectives and divert donors to NIL. But we're seeing ADs like Iowa wanting or having to stay disconnected. Whether it's that they don't want to give up their donor funds or that they are concerned about collectives essentially looking like a money laundering avenue to shovel funds to FB and MBB around Title IX.

 

[Clonehomer]

I put together this hypothetical map of future realignment where the B1G, SEC, and B12 all go to 24 member teams (for football).

My Maps

My Maps makes it easy for you to create beautiful maps and share them with others.

www.google.com

The situation I see is the PAC cannot agree on expansion targets or a media deal, leading to the Corner 4 leaving for the Big 12, and B1G could then move it to pick up Stanford, Cal, Oregon, and Washington. Yormark pushes to add Oregon St. and Wazzou to officially have teams in every time zone. So that gets us to: B1G - 20, SEC - 16, and B12 - 18

Then around 2028/29, negotiations around new media deals for the B1G and SEC will lead to them trying to pick away at the ACC. The SEC will eventually grab Clemson, FSU, Miami, GT, NC State, and VT, while the B1G would finally get ND along with UVA, UNC, and Duke. In order for the SEC to get to 24, they would target two teams from the B12. I chose Okie St and Kansas, but I could also see TCU and Baylor being in play. That gets both the B1G and SEC to 24 teams each, while the B12 is at 16.

The B12 then adds the remaining ACC teams - BC, Cuse, Pitt, Louisville, and Wake - which puts the league at 21. The last step would be to add 3 more schools. SDSU gets the conference into California, as well as two of SMU, Memphis, Tulane, and UConn. My preference would be Memphis and Tulane to reach further into SEC territory, but would entertain other options.

The Big12 won't be adding WSU or OSU. SDSU is a better option than them and even that's not a good one. The conference will not expand just to expand. There has to be a benefit.

 

[isucy86]

You're probably technically right, they'll be a Power conference by virtue of the auto bid to the CFP. That will be a huge reason why they'll backfill rather than completely disband. It'll be like the last days of the old Big East where they still had a BCS bowl, but everybody knew that would only last for the duration of the current deal.

That's the key, duration of the current deal. The 12 team playoff is initially an extension to the 4 team Playoff deal with ESPN.

But in 2026 when the media rights goes out to open bid, its very possible the current financial structure gets evaluated. Currently, all G5 schools split about the same amount that each P5 conference currently receives. But will the P5 or subset agree to split the estimated $2B using the same financial calculation? Or do they give G5 programs a much smaller %?

And those changes could apply to more than G5 conferences. Do powerful schools/conferences push for a bigger split going to conferences whose teams earn Playoff berths? Or even tie auto berths based on conferences winning games in the 12 team playoff. IMO we won't see 6 auto berths starting in 2026.

 

[Clonehomer]

You're probably technically right, they'll be a Power conference by virtue of the auto bid to the CFP. That will be a huge reason why they'll backfill rather than completely disband. It'll be like the last days of the old Big East where they still had a BCS bowl, but everybody knew that would only last for the duration of the current deal.

Autobids to a conference go away with the new CFP. It'll be the top 6 conference champions. A subtle difference probably not noticed by most. But if the PAC slips, there could easily be two conferences champs ranked ahead of them. That would leave them on the outside looking in.

 

[HFCS]

The Big 10 has had a massive cash advantage over everyone in the Big 12 outside of OU and UT forever. While the absolute dollar amount difference is unprecedented, the percentage difference is nothing new.

If we've learned anything during the last couple decades is the marginal benefit of that money is pretty damn small these days. The game changer would be if schools figure out a way and have the willingness to play ball with collectives and divert donors to NIL. But we're seeing ADs like Iowa wanting or having to stay disconnected. Whether it's that they don't want to give up their donor funds or that they are concerned about collectives essentially looking like a money laundering avenue to shovel funds to FB and MBB around Title IX.

Yeah. Illinois is not going to have some sudden advantage they haven't already had in the past 50 years of being between terrible and average.

Meanwhile "best Florida/Texas program outside SEC/Big 12" is probably always going to be able to destroy plenty of their teams...that's just the easy one to point out. You can do it other places but have to be more buttoned up.

 

[LLCoolCY]

Everything is fine…

 

[CyCrazy]

Well that sounds like the words from Animal House.

 

[Clonehomer]

Everything is fine…

By consummate, is he implying they're going to get ****** in the negotiations?

 

[isucy86]

Sounds like Boise is hitting the panic button

MIKE PRATER: Boise State wasted 3,298 days — and why that’s so painful today

SMU football has a cold, dreary reputation — more than eight wins in a season only once since 1984 — and somehow this program of insignificance has become more attractive

www.idahopress.com

lol

First thing BSU needs to do is get rid of the blue turf. It was a nice novelty for a program trying to find an identity, but its outlived its usefulness. IMO it reaks of "minor league". Plus I hate watching a game on that field, I turn the channel. Just like the Oregon & TCU basketball courts.

 

[isucy86]

I put together this hypothetical map of future realignment where the B1G, SEC, and B12 all go to 24 member teams (for football).

My Maps

My Maps makes it easy for you to create beautiful maps and share them with others.

www.google.com

The situation I see is the PAC cannot agree on expansion targets or a media deal, leading to the Corner 4 leaving for the Big 12, and B1G could then move it to pick up Stanford, Cal, Oregon, and Washington. Yormark pushes to add Oregon St. and Wazzou to officially have teams in every time zone. So that gets us to: B1G - 20, SEC - 16, and B12 - 18

Then around 2028/29, negotiations around new media deals for the B1G and SEC will lead to them trying to pick away at the ACC. The SEC will eventually grab Clemson, FSU, Miami, GT, NC State, and VT, while the B1G would finally get ND along with UVA, UNC, and Duke. In order for the SEC to get to 24, they would target two teams from the B12. I chose Okie St and Kansas, but I could also see TCU and Baylor being in play. That gets both the B1G and SEC to 24 teams each, while the B12 is at 16.

The B12 then adds the remaining ACC teams - BC, Cuse, Pitt, Louisville, and Wake - which puts the league at 21. The last step would be to add 3 more schools. SDSU gets the conference into California, as well as two of SMU, Memphis, Tulane, and UConn. My preference would be Memphis and Tulane to reach further into SEC territory, but would entertain other options.

A lot of the experts I have seen speculate, look for the Big10 & SEC to probably end up at 20 teams. There just aren't enough schools that bring enough value.

Conversely, I could see the 3rd conference be bigger at 24-28 teams.

 

[CyCrazy]

Sounds like Boise is hitting the panic button

MIKE PRATER: Boise State wasted 3,298 days — and why that’s so painful today

SMU football has a cold, dreary reputation — more than eight wins in a season only once since 1984 — and somehow this program of insignificance has become more attractive

www.idahopress.com

lol

Were the previous Ad's consulting Bruce Vandevelde on how to run a program?

 

[isucy86]

Autobids to a conference go away with the new CFP. It'll be the top 6 conference champions. A subtle difference probably not noticed by most. But if the PAC slips, there could easily be two conferences champs ranked ahead of them. That would leave them on the outside looking in.

And the top 6 rated conference champions is only guaranteed for the 2 year extension with ESPN.

 

[Gorm]

Everything is fine…

 

[1UNI2ISU]

IF the Big 12 would go with the reduced share, non-football member model (which I think they should)...

I'm not saying Creighton is the absolute perfect add to balance Gonzaga but I'm also not not saying it....

 

[CoKane]

I don't see any G5 schools making the jump to a power conference in the next 15-20 years. Conferences are only going to add a school for 1 of 2 reasons - either that school increases the distributions for current members, or the conference has lost schools and doesn't have enough to remain viable. The viability number is 10, the minimum for a conference to hold a title game.

I'd have to assume the best G5 schools would add less than $25m to the conference's media deals. The PAC's reported offers would fall somewhere in that range, and I'm sure they've run numbers and gotten quotes for all manner of scenarios. In short, if a school doesn't meet the PAC's minimum threshold to add value, it doesn't meet the higher thresholds the B12 or ACC have.

The P5 will continue if the PAC hangs together at 10, but the P4/G6 era will start if anyone else defects. I'd expect the PAC to backfill, but it won't be considered a power conference any longer.

Not sure I agree that there will be no more promotions. The SEC and BIG are out of that game for sure. The Pac sounds like it needs to so it can increase its inventory for Amazon. ACC will need to once the SEC, Big 10, and maybe the Big 12 take some teams. We still might be doing that too depending on what happens with the PAC. We'll see if Yormark values the timeslot enough to get G5s to fill it out. Something tells me he might.

I do think barring something wild happening that this may be the final chance for G5s to get into a P5. Don't blame someone like SMU for making themselves cheaper to make that happen. If you're a SMU, USF, Boise, Fresno, SDSU, Memphis, etc and you miss out now you better hope the ACC wants you in 10ish years. Because thats the last boat out of town.

 

[Clonehomer]

A lot of the experts I have seen speculate, look for the Big10 & SEC to probably end up at 20 teams. There just aren't enough schools that bring enough value.

Conversely, I could see the 3rd conference be bigger at 24-28 teams.

I don't even see 20 teams. Are there 8 more teams out there that can bring in an additional $80m each to even be revenue neutral?

I see 18 max per conference.

Clemson - SEC
Notre Dame - Big10
Miami - SEC
North Carolina - Big10

Who else you got unless the member schools are willing to take a cut to make more happen. And I'll believe that when I see it.

 

[CoKane]

I put together this hypothetical map of future realignment where the B1G, SEC, and B12 all go to 24 member teams (for football).

My Maps

My Maps makes it easy for you to create beautiful maps and share them with others.

www.google.com

The situation I see is the PAC cannot agree on expansion targets or a media deal, leading to the Corner 4 leaving for the Big 12, and B1G could then move it to pick up Stanford, Cal, Oregon, and Washington. Yormark pushes to add Oregon St. and Wazzou to officially have teams in every time zone. So that gets us to: B1G - 20, SEC - 16, and B12 - 18

Then around 2028/29, negotiations around new media deals for the B1G and SEC will lead to them trying to pick away at the ACC. The SEC will eventually grab Clemson, FSU, Miami, GT, NC State, and VT, while the B1G would finally get ND along with UVA, UNC, and Duke. In order for the SEC to get to 24, they would target two teams from the B12. I chose Okie St and Kansas, but I could also see TCU and Baylor being in play. That gets both the B1G and SEC to 24 teams each, while the B12 is at 16.

The B12 then adds the remaining ACC teams - BC, Cuse, Pitt, Louisville, and Wake - which puts the league at 21. The last step would be to add 3 more schools. SDSU gets the conference into California, as well as two of SMU, Memphis, Tulane, and UConn. My preference would be Memphis and Tulane to reach further into SEC territory, but would entertain other options.

Cant open the map

 

[1UNI2ISU]

I don't even see 20 teams. Are there 8 more teams out there that can bring in an additional $80m each to even be revenue neutral?

I see 18 max per conference.

Clemson - SEC
Notre Dame - Big10
Miami - SEC
North Carolina - Big10

Who else you got unless the member schools are willing to take a cut to make more happen. And I'll believe that when I see it.

I actually think the Big 10 would take Virginia before North Carolina.

 

[cymonw1980]

I put together this hypothetical map of future realignment where the B1G, SEC, and B12 all go to 24 member teams (for football).

My Maps

My Maps makes it easy for you to create beautiful maps and share them with others.

www.google.com

The situation I see is the PAC cannot agree on expansion targets or a media deal, leading to the Corner 4 leaving for the Big 12, and B1G could then move it to pick up Stanford, Cal, Oregon, and Washington. Yormark pushes to add Oregon St. and Wazzou to officially have teams in every time zone. So that gets us to: B1G - 20, SEC - 16, and B12 - 18

Then around 2028/29, negotiations around new media deals for the B1G and SEC will lead to them trying to pick away at the ACC. The SEC will eventually grab Clemson, FSU, Miami, GT, NC State, and VT, while the B1G would finally get ND along with UVA, UNC, and Duke. In order for the SEC to get to 24, they would target two teams from the B12. I chose Okie St and Kansas, but I could also see TCU and Baylor being in play. That gets both the B1G and SEC to 24 teams each, while the B12 is at 16.

The B12 then adds the remaining ACC teams - BC, Cuse, Pitt, Louisville, and Wake - which puts the league at 21. The last step would be to add 3 more schools. SDSU gets the conference into California, as well as two of SMU, Memphis, Tulane, and UConn. My preference would be Memphis and Tulane to reach further into SEC territory, but would entertain other options.

I think the b10 may add 2-4 more from the pac (oregon, wash, stanford, cal). But I don't think it's automatic. People believe there is much more value in the pac than there is.... UO brand is built by nike. Pre-nike money oregon was very average. They still have relatively limited fan support given the size of there state. Just not a lot of interest in college football on the west coast. Tend to be more focused pro sports than college sports. Not trying to knock them, but if you are the b10 I don't think either wash / uo are revenue adds. The fan support is not significant enough to add a lot of interest in the b10 by adding UO. With the changing media landscape, the size of the markets is not quite as important as it was when b10 added rutgers for the "NY" market. For reference, UO's average football attendance was about 55k last year... behind teams like ISU, BYU, Texas Tech, and NC State. Does UO add $75M+ per year to the b10? Or do they drop the per team distribution? Not sure... but I don't think it's a slam dunk.

NOTE: Most teams in the b10, sec do not create significant value... UO may be an upgrade over 1/2 or so of the current teams based on media value... but I don't think sec/b10 are kicking teams out anytime soon. So, this is not a knock on any team on the outside looking in. it's just where we are in the sport. Unless your media value is greater than the conf avg, you are going to have a hard time getting in until that mindset changes (don't see that happening anytime soon).

So... I think the b10, sec may go to 20 or so. But that is with the ACC/ND adds. If that is 8 (ND, Clemson, Miami, FSU, UNC, Duke, UVA, GT), they may not add any others. At that point, I think the B12 would be in a great position to add from either the west (arizona, utah, colo, etc.) or east (pitt, vt, nc state, Louisville).

I don't see any reason the B12 would add wsu, oregon st. Don't hate them, just unfortunately, I don't see it happening. Just like it's unlikely ISU gets a b10 invite.

 

[ISpyCy]

Everything is fine…

Kliavkoff making back-of-the-envelope calculations on why it's not financially feasible to leave the PAC for the B1G, "nobody supporting the UCLA/USC moves" despite on-campus surveys suggesting otherwise, his whole "we haven't decided if we're going shopping there" comments during media days, no media deal, no GOR and member schools at odds about the future of the conference...and this is what we get to show solidarity.

Come on, Yormark...finish them!