Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[Hoggins]

They waited so long because these are supposed to be home/home schedules, which means you will just flip the locations the next year.

I've not seen that. Originally it was 5 protected teams, 4 of the other 8 in 2023, and then the other 4 in 2024. That gave everyone one last shot at OUT and protected the most important games.

Games like Tech/OSU I can't imagine not playing for 2 years.

 

[BCClone]

I've not seen that. Originally it was 5 protected teams, 4 of the other 8 in 2023, and then the other 4 in 2024. That gave everyone one last shot at OUT and protected the most important games.

Games like Tech/OSU I can't imagine not playing for 2 years.

Where was that reported? Also, then, who are our 5 protected? We play OSU this year.

 

[Die4Cy]

I'm probably the only one, but the goal here should be to pry UW and UO out of the PAC and forget the rest. They know they can't get into the Big 10. They know that if they push for unequal revenue for themselves in the PAC things come apart and they are the reason. The new playoff format probably has some pull, but let's face it, the schedules will be weak and the PAC will still just be a one bid league.

The Big 12 is their best option. They are the Big 12's best options.

 

[Hoggins]

Where was that reported? Also, then, who are our 5 protected? We play OSU this year.

Not reported, I heard that from someone who would know

 

[CoKane]

No one is gonna “force“ Utah or anybody else to join the Big 12 if they don’t want to. If you get to the point of extending the invitation, you extend it, and they say yes or no. If they say yes, then any “public statements against joining the conference” are essentially null and void.

I can see what you mean about actually inviting a school that’s bad-mouthed your conference - maybe you don’t end up doing that - but if you think that school can be a benefit to your conference both financially and competitively, and the situation looks favorable, and (perhaps most importantly) that school is running out of viable options … why not invite them and put the ball in their court?

I don’t have a strong opinion either way about Utah, and there might be other more attractive options out there soon, but just because the AD said some bad things about the Big 12 recently doesn’t mean they wouldn’t be happy to be offered a lifeline if their other choices were the WAC and the MWC.

I dont disagree with you, but if they bad mouth the conference in public I could see that being taken as declining the invite before it comes.

Their tune could very well change with all the new stuff thats happened since then. Im not sure if Yormark wants to take teams that see us as the best of bad options either though. I guess we'll learn soon, feels like there is not much left that needs to happen anymore before Pac 12 schools have to pick something

 

[BCClone]

I dont disagree with you, but if they bad mouth the conference in public I could see that being taken as declining the invite before it comes.

Their tune could very well change with all the new stuff thats happened since then. Im not sure if Yormark wants to take teams that see us as the best of bad options either though. I guess we'll learn soon, feels like there is not much left that needs to happen anymore before Pac 12 schools have to pick something

You don't want those. Means they feel they have settled. Settlers always have wandering eyes.

 

[helechopper]

I think the PAC survives by adding lesser teams (lesser in the sense that they're not USC or UCLA). OU and W aren't going anywhere.

Maybe someone will jump in 10 years or so, but I think they're too proud and too stubborn to let the Big12 pick them apart.

It's going to be BIG and SEC at the top, then Big12, PAC, ACC filling the middle and the rest filling out the base of the college athletic pyramid scheme.

 

[Hoggins]

So assuming they are using the 5-4-4 scheduling method and that KSU, KU, Cincy, OSU, and OU are our 5, I am guessing this is our 2024 schedule.

Confirmed
8/31 - North Dakota
9/7 - at Iowa
9/14 - Arkansas State

Conference Home Games - Oklahoma, Cincy, Kansas State, Houston, UCF

Conference Away Games - Oklahoma State, Kansas, West Virginia, Texas Tech

 

[FriendlySpartan]

You don't want those. Means they feel they have settled. Settlers always have wandering eyes.

I would imagine that whatever deal gets extended has a massive buyout and iron clad GOR. Their eyes might wander but the only place outside of the Big12 they could go would be the SEC or Big10. Any school outside of those two conferences would probably except and invite settler or not. Got to just make it extremely costly to leave.

 

[sunset]

I would agree regarding football brand, but Phoenix MSA is the US's 10th largest MSA whereas SLC is 46th.

Media partners will pay for eyeballs and exposure.

My daughter is going to ASU in the fall (as an athlete so we admittedly have some bias with this subject). I was really surprised at how similar the campus felt to my memories of Iowa State (outside of the obvious weather differences). Despite being part of the Phoenix metro area, Tempe is its own little world and that world revolves around the university. It’s a large state school with a wide range of fields of study. They haven’t had a ton of recent success in football/basketball but the student and alumni support is there. It feels like they are a just a good coach away from being relevant. Kind of fella like ISU back in the late 90s/ early 2000’s, only with a better overall athletic department than ISU had back then. I think they would be a great addition.

 

[HFCS]

The Arizonas can come. IDK if I actually want Utah or Colorado anymore though. Utah made it clear they don't want to be here from the fan base and AD. Colorado left already and nobody is actually invested in the program all that much.

I think Utah would rather pretend that a new PAC where they are the premier fb school and Boise/Stanford/Oregon St/WSU are the next best programs is superior to the Big 12 than actually join the Big 12. Let them indulge that fantasy.

They fell in love with the idea that they had defeated BYU permanently through conference realignment and are having a total mental breakdown that realignment is now very possibly putting BYU in a superior place.

 

[HFCS]

Not going to hold my breath on further realignment. My bet is schools could be posturing to fill the power vacuum left with USC/UCLA leaving. I am sure schools like ASU and Utah don't want to automatically turn the bully pulpit over to Oregon & Washington.

A unique aspect of any Big12/Pac12 realignment is that each conference's media rights values are pretty close. This isn't like UT/OU or USC/UCLA's recent moves for $25M+ more per year.

Sure an 18-20 team conference could seem unwieldy, but the key would be creating a handful of annual rival games and then cycle through the other 12-14 teams home/road games over a 6-8 year period.

Creating a One Conference vibe could be achieved by not going with a 2 year cycle, but play group A years 1&4, group B years 2 & 5, etc.

The Big12 & Pac12 could view an 18-20 team conference as a way to expand both conference core audience. Aka I would be more likely as a Big12 fan to watch Arizona or Washington if I need ISU played them.

If Oregon/Wash don’t sign grant of right’s it’s guaranteed in the not too distant future.

I think the only way the PAC stays together (in current form) is if UW/UO decide that easier CFP access via PAC10 is more important than an addl ~$10-20M annual. Kliavkoff, I think, has been hustling to make that money differential as low as possible, to tip the scales in favor of staying put.

If UW/UO demand unequal shares, or won't sign a GOR in hopes of getting a B1G invite, then the mid-tier teams will likely head for the Big12 sooner or later. That's just an unstable situation. (This of course assumes the Big12 would take those mid-tier teams as net beneficial for the Big12).

Now, we all thought it made sense for OuT to stay in the Big12 since better CFP access. And look where that went.

If we’re talking about just this year and next year I get a kick that OU is worried about CFP. They better worry more about OKSt, TCU and KSU. I mean they might get rolled by some of the newbies too.

 

[CascadeClone]

My daughter is going to ASU in the fall (as an athlete so we admittedly have some bias with this subject). I was really surprised at how similar the campus felt to my memories of Iowa State (outside of the obvious weather differences). Despite being part of the Phoenix metro area, Tempe is its own little world and that world revolves around the university. It’s a large state school with a wide range of fields of study. They haven’t had a ton of recent success in football/basketball but the student and alumni support is there. It feels like they are a just a good coach away from being relevant. Kind of fella like ISU back in the late 90s/ early 2000’s, only with a better overall athletic department than ISU had back then. I think they would be a great addition.

I think earlier in this thread I posted about being in Tucson for bizness a couple times. U of A does have a decent presence in the community - saw people wearing jerseys, football helmets in bars, etc. Both schools would be good adds just as big state schools. Both would be better than Utah.

 

[exCyDing]

You don't want those. Means they feel they have settled. Settlers always have wandering eyes.

I get not wanting to bring in members who are going to be a problem after dealing with Texas for the past 25 years. Realistically, though, any PAC school that joined wouldn't have anymore weight to throw around than the other members. Texas got away with it because someone would always take them between the B10, SEC and PAC and it was semi-plausible they could go independent.

• Without a viable alternative, what's their threat?
• If/when they get an B10/SEC invite, there's no counter offer that could get them to stay.
• The B10/SEC are well aware all the PAC schools are there for the taking whenever they'd like, and to date USC and UCLA have the only invites.
• The B12 doesn't need any of them to be the #3 conference. Sure, adding them bolsters the position, but the only place they'd go is the #1/2 conference, so it doesn't change the B12's position.

 

[werdnamanhill]

Looks like OUT will be staying until 2025 after all

 

[isucy86]

Here is the thing though.

What is being reported....the offer on the table is 25M per school, Big 12 deal is about 32M per. (just media portion)

......

Next, Wash and Oreg, have been reported for Months to be wanting unequal share. That means the 4 corners would be even lower than the 25M if they did. So lets say 5M less per, just as a guess. Could be more or less for some. That puts them at 12M below.

..................

It's been reported, but does anyone think that is logical or financially viable? It might have been a viable negotiation bluff for those schools when Kevin Warren was Big10 Commission, but no longer.

Logically, what other options does Washington & Oregon have? I don't think the Big10 or SEC are offering them a spot at the rich guys table! They also have to know their request then opens the door for Utah, ASU, etc. to want more than WSU, OSU, Stanford or Cal.

They can approach the Big12, but its not like they would make the incremental money that USC & UCLA are making to justify being a geographic outlier in the Big12. The distance from Oregon to BYU is same distance from ISU to WVU. So it only makes sense for Oregon & Washington to jump to the Big12 if they bring 2 or 4 other Pac 12 teams. So Oregon & Washington have to realize asking for an uneven split is basically ending the Pac12.

If I'm the President or AD at Colorado, Utah, ASU, Arizona, Stanford or Cal and UW/OR asked for an unequal share. I laugh, walk of the meeting and call Yormark.

 

[BCClone]

I get not wanting to bring in members who are going to be a problem after dealing with Texas for the past 25 years. Realistically, though, any PAC school that joined wouldn't have anymore weight to throw around than the other members. Texas got away with it because someone would always take them between the B10, SEC and PAC and it was semi-plausible they could go independent.

• Without a viable alternative, what's their threat?
• If/when they get an B10/SEC invite, there's no counter offer that could get them to stay.
• The B10/SEC are well aware all the PAC schools are there for the taking whenever they'd like, and to date USC and UCLA have the only invites.
• The B12 doesn't need any of them to be the #3 conference. Sure, adding them bolsters the position, but the only place they'd go is the #1/2 conference, so it doesn't change the B12's position.

More of the always acting like they have it bad when its as good as it can get. Sooner or later you just get tired of the whining and complaining.

 

[isucy86]

I'm probably the only one, but the goal here should be to pry UW and UO out of the PAC and forget the rest. They know they can't get into the Big 10. They know that if they push for unequal revenue for themselves in the PAC things come apart and they are the reason. The new playoff format probably has some pull, but let's face it, the schedules will be weak and the PAC will still just be a one bid league.

The Big 12 is their best option. They are the Big 12's best options.

Agree. But the Big12 wouldn't stop at 14 teams as Oregon & Washington are such geographic outliers compared to the other Big12 schools outside BYU.

If Oregon & Washington approach the Big12, then the Pac12 is done and the Big12 shoots for a 16 or 18 team conference. If any 2 of the 4 corner schools approach the Big12, the Pac 12 is done.

 

[isucy86]

I dont disagree with you, but if they bad mouth the conference in public I could see that being taken as declining the invite before it comes.

Their tune could very well change with all the new stuff thats happened since then. Im not sure if Yormark wants to take teams that see us as the best of bad options either though. I guess we'll learn soon, feels like there is not much left that needs to happen anymore before Pac 12 schools have to pick something

But this isn't an emotional discussion for the TV Networks (or even AD's & Presidents). If the TV folks say to Yormark "We want ASU or Utah or Washington State", then they will be in the Big12!! This is all about money, not about feelings being hurt.

 

[isucy86]

You don't want those. Means they feel they have settled. Settlers always have wandering eyes.

I don't have an issue if Oregon, Washington, etc. have a wandering eye. Heck every school in the Big12 has a wandering eye if the prospect of joining the Big10 or SEC presented itself.

I look at this as a being in "Lust" kind of deal. Because by the time the Big12 media rights extension ends in 2030ish, who knows what CFB will look like. The Big12 needs to bring in the best teams for the 2025-2030 period and then re-position in 2030.