GOR haven't been tested in court. If UNC, Clemson, Miami, UVA and other are all running for the exit. What is a GOR worth?
Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
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GOR haven't been tested in court. If UNC, Clemson, Miami, UVA and other are all running for the exit. What is a GOR worth?
IMO attendance and strong fan interest will become more critical when fans will have to pay $5--$25/month to watch their team.
Ratings ARE are the ultimate measuring stick. But will a school's ratings be the same in 5-10 years when their casual fans have to pay to see their team.
It will never be a question for the top 20ish teams, but what about after that?
Last year NBC experimented putting the ND v Toledo game on Peacock- just a question how quickly that happens with Disney & Fox. All depends how well cable & multi-channel streamers keep customers.
I agree and with the season coming up I'd guess it will be next summer before we hear anything. Honestly I think it will be the SEC that makes the next move. I think there's a decent chance that the Pac 12 adds a couple teams and survives for several years while the ACC teams wait out the GOR. By then, maybe the power structures will look vastly different.
what does that even mean?
Perhaps, but there’s no incentive for the SEC to add. ESPN controls both conferences, and I don’t see why they would give up their sweetheart ACC deal.
So realistically, it’s MAYBE UNC/VA to the B1G. But would those two schools have enough momentum to overturn the whole GOR? Are the potential gains worth it for the B1G to wage a major legal battle? Perhaps, but it’s hard for me to view any of it as likely or imminent.
I wouldn't be shocked if 1) is their preference if no GOR is required in order to pursue that option. However, my guess is when the rubber meets the road, both 1) and 2) will be requiring a GOR, which then tips the scales to 2) being the better long-term option. I have zero doubt they are wanting an option which both maximizes current comfort while also leaving their options completely wide open for futures opportunities in the Big 10. The trouble is that I don't think there will be that option. Its poop or get off the pot.
And if they're invited to the Big12, it needs to come with a lengthy GOR. Otherwise, we'll be back here again in a couple years talking about Oregon to the Big10. Take out the legs of the PAC and force OU and UW to make a decision.
Big XII is fine. At worst we are in the same position we were before all this went down. PAC-12 certainly is in no position to damage the Big XII. We'll see if ESPN and FOX want the PAC-12 to die or they want to throw them a lifeline.
My opinion is that the Big 10 and ND are content to wait until the SEC/ACC situation resolves itself one way or the other. If it isn't resolved by the time Texas and OU are slated to join the league then we might be waiting a while.
Thinking about it, what we could see is something similar to what OU and Texas (and ESPN) attempted to do with the Big 12, have Clemson, Miami, Florida St, and Va Tech announce their intention to join the SEC to destabilize the league and have the other members look for other conferences to join to end the league so the GOR doesn't come into effect.
With the numbers being thrown around, Option 1 is already pretty much eliminated. Of course they’d prefer to stay together, but if you’re going to be making 4-5x less than the B1G/SEC and 2x less than the Big 12 for ~10 years with all expansion options out there…the writing is on the wall. I don’t even see unequal sharing as an option…just more discontent and instability. Add to that the fact that FOX has pretty much shunned them and ESPN is the only partner in play for 30 days…yikes.
I don't think there's anything left in the Pac 12 for Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah.
Higher-earning members are going to be constantly looking for an exit, and the only thing that can sustain the conference existence in P5 is probably temporary life-support measures.
Big 12 offers longer-term stability and greater earnings. For those schools, the longer they would try to wait it out, probably the worse off they'll be in terms of leverage.
Higher-earning members are going to be constantly looking for an exit, and the only thing that can sustain the conference existence in P5 is probably temporary life-support measures.
Big 12 offers longer-term stability and greater earnings. For those schools, the longer they would try to wait it out, probably the worse off they'll be in terms of leverage.
This guy seems to be way more plugged into the current situation than anyone else. This really makes sense from a Big 10 perspective. No need to be in a hurry at all.
this doesn't not look good for the Big 12. The ACC and PAC are setting this up that they are the tie for the number 3 league. By scheduling each other they are creating big games, big intersectional matchups that will draw a lot of interest and better ratings. Of course, aren't a lot of the non con schedules in football already set for the next few years? If so, how far in the future are they scheduling each other?
I don't think that's a certainty at all. I don't think we're in danger of being destabilized or threatened with extinction, but depending on what the TV networks decide, we might end up as the #4 conference with a lower TV payout than we expected.
Very few of those matchups will be big games, Oregon - Clemson will be about the only big time match up that could happen. Nobody cares about 90% of those conference teams, Louisville-Arizona isn't drawing eyeballs.
Honest question here, do you think a ton of isu fans would pay $25 per month to watch their team? Only reason why I ask is people keep pointing out how cheap the fan base is. I have no idea if this is actually true but it is something I see posted regularly in regards to donations and NIL. Obv paying to watch the games is different then those things which is why I ask the question.
Agreed. Also, I would have to imagine the ACC schools are trying to get a better understanding of their GOR to see if they would be able to challenge it court or if some ACC members are communicating with each other to see if they could potentially dissolve the conference and not have to worry about the longevity of their GOR. All of this probably takes more than a couple of days to figure out.
Big12 will easily be #3.
'1)' will happen and this thread will die out at least for a while.
I'm not sold on those 4 schools making thr jump.