New Foul or Defend?

[shadow]

If there are 45-50 seconds to go (30 seconds on the shot clock), your team is down 1-2 points, and the other team has the ball, do you foul or defend?

I'm generally a defend guy, but after seeing this situation happen a number of times in the tourney and the offensive team score in almost all circumstances, I thought it was worth asking the question.

 

[CloniesForLife]

Bonus or double bonus? How good of FT shooting team? I tend to lean defend hard and go for a steal/foul. Also depends on my team's defensive ability. If it's this year's Cyclones I probably defend.

 

[Farnsworth]

Bonus or double bonus? How good of FT shooting team? I tend to lean defend hard and go for a steal/foul. Also depends on my team's defensive ability. If it's this year's Cyclones I probably defend.

Ya a lot of unknowns go into this, probably very situational, even game to game with the same teams.

 

[VeloClone]

Bonus or double bonus? How good of FT shooting team? I tend to lean defend hard and go for a steal/foul. Also depends on my team's defensive ability. If it's this year's Cyclones I probably defend.

Also in the equation is the possession arrow and how generous they have been in awarding tie ups and how effective you have been at harrassing them causing back court turnovers, 5 second calls and 10 second calls.

 

[LivntheCyLife]

Down by 1, I think you definitely defend. Even with a FG it's still a one possession game. Or you take your chance with them attempting a 3pt shot.

Down by 2 is a more tricky, going 1 for 2 on FT is a big difference to making a FG to go up 4.

 

[Nothingman]

Completely situational. Way too many variables to consider.

 

[NickTheGreat]

Defend. If it's 3 to 4 points down, you'd have to foul, I think.

 

[SCNCY]

With the way games are called, I would say foul right away, so only a second or two are left. I say this because more than likely a foul will be called anyway if you try to defend. Inbound the ball after free throws and run down the court to take a quick three, hopefully only 5-7 seconds taken off. Foul again right away so that your left with the last shot.

 

[ruxCYtable]

I would not instruct my team to intentionally foul but I would tell them to go for the ball like crazy and if you happen to foul, so be it.

 

[Cyclonepride]

If there are 45-50 seconds to go (30 seconds on the shot clock), your team is down 1-2 points, and the other team has the ball, do you foul or defend?

I'm generally a defend guy, but after seeing this situation happen a number of times in the tourney and the offensive team score in almost all circumstances, I thought it was worth asking the question.

If I'm this year's Cyclone team, I defend. More likely to get a stop and then score than make up for the free throws with potential extra possessions.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Bonus or double bonus? How good of FT shooting team? I tend to lean defend hard and go for a steal/foul. Also depends on my team's defensive ability. If it's this year's Cyclones I probably defend.

I wouldn't know how to put together a model for this, but I imagine the expected outcomes of fouling a good free-throw shooter in the double bonus versus fouling a poor free-throw shooter in the single bonus, which puts a lot of pressure on the front end of a 1&1, are very different from each other.

If a guy shoots 90% from the line, then two for sure shots gives you an expected 1.80 points.

If a guy shoots 50% from the line, then the 1&1 gives you an expected 0.75 points.

 

[randomfan44]

If there are 45-50 seconds to go (30 seconds on the shot clock), your team is down 1-2 points, and the other team has the ball, do you foul or defend?

I'm generally a defend guy, but after seeing this situation happen a number of times in the tourney and the offensive team score in almost all circumstances, I thought it was worth asking the question.

Only down 1 or 2? Defend. Silly to give them free throws to take the lead. Kansas was up 3 late and chose to play it out rather than to foul and UNC did not score.

 

[VeloClone]

Only down 1 or 2? Defend. Silly to give them free throws to take the lead. Kansas was up 3 late and chose to play it out rather than to foul and UNC did not score.

What does what Kansas did up 3 have to do with a situation where you are down? And if you are down 1 or 2 giving them FTs doesn't allow them to take the lead - they already have it.

 

[Kinch]

If I trusted my guards, I would defend. Layups off steals are a lot easier to make than a three pointer. Plus during a loose ball scramble refs call more fouls on the offense than defense.

 

[Bigman38]

I'd definitely go with the really aggressive defense, but I noticed the same thing, lot of teams got burned in the tourney doing it. Usually the opposite IMO, the offense wastes a ton of time and can't get into a good shot so they just throw some garbage up and miss.

 

[randomfan44]

What does what Kansas did up 3 have to do with a situation where you are down? And if you are down 1 or 2 giving them FTs doesn't allow them to take the lead - they already have it.

I am apparently tired and cannot process information well today. My bad. I had that all jumbled in my brain.

 

[randomfan44]

If there are 45-50 seconds to go (30 seconds on the shot clock), your team is down 1-2 points, and the other team has the ball, do you foul or defend?

I'm generally a defend guy, but after seeing this situation happen a number of times in the tourney and the offensive team score in almost all circumstances, I thought it was worth asking the question.

Let's try that again. If only DOWN 1-2 with enough time that you will get the ball back then I would choose to defend if the defense has been getting stops but would choose to foul if the defese had been getting run through. Especially if just down 1. Starting down by 2 gets a little scarier as you don't want them to run a bunch of clock and then be down 2 possessions.

 

[drmwevr08]

Seems like the foul choice is still rarely made.

 

[Rabbuk]

Down by 1, I think you definitely defend. Even with a FG it's still a one possession game. Or you take your chance with them attempting a 3pt shot.

Down by 2 is a more tricky, going 1 for 2 on FT is a big difference to making a FG to go up 4.

This i think