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Breaking down the bubble...

dahliaclone

dahliaclone

Well-Known Member
Mar 4, 2007
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Since I don't work tomorrow and can't sleep...

The bubble teams, for the most part, are below...with resume highlights and/or lowlights included. There is no rhyme or reason to the way they're listed, by the way...

  • Iowa State (NET 35; Q1 = 8)
  • Oklahoma (NET 45; Q1 = 3; Q3 losses = 1)
  • Rutgers (NET 80; Q1 = 6; Q3 losses = 2; Q4 losses = 1)
  • San Francisco (NET 29; Q1 = 3; Q3 losses = 1; Q4 losses = 1)
  • North Carolina (NET 42; Q1 = 1; Q4 losses = 1)
  • Memphis (NET 44; Q1 = 3; Q3 losses = 2)
  • SMU (NET 46; Q1 = 2; Q3 losses = 1; Q4 losses = 1)
  • Michigan (NET 34; Q1 = 3; Q3 losses = 1)
  • Creighton (NET 62; Q1 = 3; Q3 losses = 1)
  • BYU (NET 54; Q1 = 3; Q4 losses = 1)
  • Oregon (NET 63; Q1 = 2; Q3 losses = 3)
  • San Diego State (NET 32; Q1 = 2)
  • Kansas State (NET 60; Q1 = 4)
  • Florida (NET 40; Q1 = 2; Q4 losses = 1)
  • Mississippi State (NET 47; Q1 = 2; Q3 losses = 2)
  • Virginia Tech (NET 41; Q1 = 0; Q3 losses = 2)
  • Wyoming (NET 38; Q1 = 3; Q3 losses = 2)
  • Seton Hall (NET 36; Q1 = 5)
  • Notre Dame (NET 57; Q1 = 2; Q3 losses = 1)
  • Marquette (NET 33; Q1 = 7)
  • Loyola-Chicago (NET 37; Q1 = 2; Q3 losses = 1)
  • Colorado State (NET 31; Q1 = 3; Q3 losses = 1)
  • Miami (NET 65; Q1 = 4; Q3 losses = 3)
  • Boise State (NET 30; Q1 = 4; Q4 losses = 1)
  • Wake Forest (NET 40; Q1 = 1)
  • St. Mary's (NET 21; Q1 = 3)
  • Davidson (NET 50; Q1 wins = 2)
  • North Texas (NET 39; Q1 = 1; Q3 losses = 1)
  • TCU (NET 56; Q1 = 4)
  • Indiana (NET 43; Q1 = 2)
  • Iowa (NET 19; Q1 = 1)
Not one team even touches Iowa State's resume. Not one. I think the team that Iowa State is most similar to is Marquette. We have around the same NET and they have 7 Q1 wins, 10 total losses, and no Q3 or Q4 losses at all. Yet all the 'experts' have Marquette markedly higher than Iowa State on their brackets. Lunardi has ISU a 9, Marquette a 7, for instance. That will definitely change come tomorrow since our blowout win and their loss today aren't included in his latest bracket.

If a team like North Carolina is a play in game like Lunardi has them with their resume, how in the world wouldn't we be a play in game even if we lost out? I don't want to see that happen obviously...just trying to show that we are sitting better than literally everyone on this list if you look strictly at quality wins and losses. And it's not even close. For God's sakes, I just watch Katz talk about his last four teams in etc from Saturday and he has West Virginia as the 8th team out?! The fact they are even in the conversation at this point shows how weak the bubble is but also how GOOD the Big 12 is.
 
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I think the 2 wins over Nova are carrying Marquette's resume.

The committee values Q1 is two tier. Quad 1a and Q1b. Q1a wins carry A TON of weight. Especially neutral and raod wins.

ISU has 3 versus Marq having 4.

ISU teamsheet:
1645460953217.png

Marq:
1645460979479.png
 
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USAToday's bracket person updated today. Not bad but they really love the Big East. Creighton as a 7 seed over Iowa State is a bit puzzling. Marquette as a 6 seed when they basically have an identical resume as we do.

If we are gonna be an 8/9 game I'd love this bracket. I wanna face a team like Wyoming or Colorado State first and while Arizona is good they've shown they're beatable.

www.usatoday.com

NCAA Tournament bracketology: The battle for a No. 1 seed will be as close as ever on Selection Sunday

Kentucky and Baylor are just outside the top four seeds, but the competition is heating up in the final three weeks before Selection Sunday.
www.usatoday.com
 
Is it appearing that the Big 12 might only get 5 in? WVU is done. Getting hard to see OU getting in. TCU's schedule after tonight is really tough. KSU might have the best shot after ISU.

Am I looking at this wrong?
 
NENick said:
Is it appearing that the Big 12 might only get 5 in? WVU is done. Getting hard to see OU getting in. TCU's schedule after tonight is really tough. KSU might have the best shot after ISU.

Am I looking at this wrong?
Click to expand...
TCU (18-12) or Oklahoma (17-14) will get in. I can't see K State with barely .500, so probably TCU, maybe OU if they can take down @KSU last game of season. K State is 14-12 with games @KU, vs ISU, @ Tech, vs OU. A split would be a miracle and that still leaves them at 16-14. I fully believe we get revenge at Hemorrhage Coliseum and they end up 15-15 or 14-16 if lose to OU.
 
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Are the data points pretty well locked in to where we won't lose Q1 wins due to rankings drops? Are there any that might bump up?
 
qwerty said:
TCU (18-12) or Oklahoma (17-14) will get in. I can't see K State with barely .500, so probably TCU, maybe OU if they can take down @KSU last game of season. K State is 14-12 with games @KU, vs ISU, @ Tech, vs OU. A split would be a miracle and that still leaves them at 16-14. I fully believe we get revenge at Hemorrhage Coliseum and they end up 15-15 or 14-16 if lose to OU.
Click to expand...
TCU probably ends up 17-14.
Or 18-14 if they end up in the 8/9 game.
 
NENick said:
Is it appearing that the Big 12 might only get 5 in? WVU is done. Getting hard to see OU getting in. TCU's schedule after tonight is really tough. KSU might have the best shot after ISU.

Am I looking at this wrong?
Click to expand...

In the end I think Big 12 gets 6. TCU's schedule is just brutal to end the regular season. OU really has to win a couple more. One of those two will make it just not sure which.
 
ca4cy said:
Are the data points pretty well locked in to where we won't lose Q1 wins due to rankings drops? Are there any that might bump up?
Click to expand...

Creighton
Memphis

Those are two Q1 wins that could become Q2 wins over the next week or two depending on if they lose or not. No other Q1 win for us will drop far enough to move to Q2, IMO.
 
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dahliaclone said:
Creighton
Memphis

Those are two Q1 wins that could become Q2 wins over the next week or two depending on if they lose or not. No other Q1 win for us will drop far enough to move to Q2, IMO.
Click to expand...
Memphis is 44 which is 7 spots inside Q1
Creighton is 62 which is 14 spots inside Q1

Memphis should win their next 3 which might move them up 2-3 spots and then lose at Houston which shouldn't drop them below 50
 
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NENick said:
Is it appearing that the Big 12 might only get 5 in? WVU is done. Getting hard to see OU getting in. TCU's schedule after tonight is really tough. KSU might have the best shot after ISU.

Am I looking at this wrong?
Click to expand...

Started Conference play with 7 teams in top 28 of AP poll…as a reward for playing each other now 5 teams according to some.
 
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The Committee slavishly follows the official line. We, #34 NET, are in absent another melt down with losses to OSU and WVU. Any reasonable seed gets a first round win and a close loss to a 1 or 2 seed.
 
Massive games for bubble teams today...

TCU beat #9 Texas Tech (locked for tourney now)
Virginia lost at home to Florida State on last second three (bubble burst)
Miami lost at home by 1 to Virginia Tech (might end up in Dayton?)
Wake Forest Beat Louisvile (Wake likely in now)
North Carolina beat NC State (UNC likely in but shouldn't be)
Creighton going to lose at Providence (still safe but will drop a seed line maybe)
Rutgers lost at home to Wisconsin (wrong side of bubble at the moment i think)
Dayton lost at LaSalle (bubble burst)
Seton Hall beat Xavier BAD. Xavier is looking at a 10 seed at this point
VCU beat UMASS
Loyola lost at UNI (Loyola will be like an 11 or play in)
 
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