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WILLIAMS: Analyzing Iowa State’s NCAA Tournament situation after a big week

twincyties said:
Think it’s been posted elsewhere that worst conference record to ever get an at large bid was -4 and it was one of Orr’s teams in the 80s.

I think 7-11 in conference puts us in very safe territory. I think 8-10 - which probably puts us 5th in the conference - gives us a decent seed. Really want to stay off that 8/9 line as not many teams this year scare me once you get past the top 4 or 5.
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-4 doesn't matter. ISU won 5 of 14 conference games for a percentage of .357 in '91-92. Even if ISU goes 6-12 this year that would be a comparable winning percentage of .333. If they go 7-11 that is a better winning percentage of .389. EDIT: I guess DSM already said the same thing. I should have kept reading.

Regardless, conference record isn't what the committee is evaluating. They are looking at ISU's overall resume - and it isn't against some arbitrary measure of what is tournament worthy but rather against other teams trying to squeak into the field of 68. For bubble teams some years it comes down to whether there are some upsets in conference tournaments that turn 1 bid leagues into 2 bid leagues because really strong league champions get in anyway after being upset in their league tournaments.

And don't forget when Johnny's 5-9 team got in there were only 64 bids while 68 teams get in now.
 
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clone52 said:
You're being too pessimistic, in my opinion. 5 league wins makes us sweat, depending on bid stealers. 6 wins and we are easily in. 7 gets us a single digit seed and 8 or more probably gets us a 5 or 6 seed.
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Yep. This is where I am and have been with our Tourney chances with regards to our conference wins.

Lunardi, for some reason, has been really under-seeding us IMO. Jerry Palm over at CBS, who I personally prefer, has us currently a 7 seed, which sounds about right to me at this point.

And we could still improve on that as well.
 
VeloClone said:
-4 doesn't matter. ISU won 5 of 14 conference games for a percentage of .357 in '91-92. Even if ISU goes 6-12 this year that would be a comparable winning percentage of .333. If they go 7-11 that is a better winning percentage of .389. EDIT: I guess DSM already said the same thing. I should have kept reading.

Regardless, conference record isn't what the committee is evaluating. They are looking at ISU's overall resume - and it isn't against some arbitrary measure of what is tournament worthy but rather against other teams trying to squeak into the field of 68. For bubble teams some years it comes down to whether there are some upsets in conference tournaments that turn 1 bid leagues into 2 bid leagues because really strong league champions get in anyway after being upset in their league tournaments.

And don't forget when Johnny's 5-9 team got in there were only 64 bids while 68 teams get in now.
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That 5-9 team beat 3 seed Missouri to reach the semifinals. If it doesn't matter Don't bring it up because that team wouldn't of got in without that win in KC.
 
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Cyforce said:
That 5-9 team beat 3 seed Missouri to reach the semifinals. If it doesn't matter Don't bring it up because that team wouldn't of got in without that win in KC.
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Yeah, they needed another good win to get them over the top compared to bubble teams. This Iowa State team has far more quality wins than other bubble teams. Its not even close.
 
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NWICY said:
To be blunt I think there are some people who post here that are disappointed that this team is as good as they are. This team is offensively challenged and some people haven't gotten used to the defensive mindset yet.

I had no idea what this season was going to be after last yrs disaster, but by golly it didn't take long for the people who attend the games to start to cheer for this team. I'm along for the ride and keep hoping for the best, I don't know of one fan that actually had this team making the tourney. I got laughed at for saying they would be above .500. It's been a lot of fun cheering for them though.
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I thought going into the season an around .500 finish was the ceiling for this team. And I consider myself an optimist.

I've found this season to be pretty thrilling. These guys are a ragtag, lunch pail group. And it's easy to root for guys who put forth this type of effort win or lose. These guys are tough MF'rs.

And there's more season to go. So I'm going to enjoy the ride and maybe these guys can shock the world come Tourney time. You never know.
 
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Cyforce said:
That 5-9 team beat 3 seed Missouri to reach the semifinals. If it doesn't matter Don't bring it up because that team wouldn't of got in without that win in KC.
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I didn't bring up -4, the post I quoted did.

The point remains that that 5-9 team needed another quality win to get in. The current team has a whole bunch of other quality wins.
 
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VeloClone said:
I didn't bring up -4, the post I quoted did.

The point remains that that 5-9 team needed another quality win to get in. The current team has a whole bunch of other quality wins.
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That team had as many wins against ranked opponents as this one has. Don't think Q1 was a thing back then.
 
If ISU gets to the sweet 16 after winning only 2 games last year.. .... well TJ would firmly be in 2nd place for COY behind Fran, of course.
 
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StLouisClone said:
I am still nervous. We have more Quad 1 games played than anyone else. We are 8-7. Lots of bubble teams are 4-2, 3-1 or 2-1. I'm not sure 8-7 is any better than 2-1. So I think we need to win 1-2 more games to feel more confident we are in.
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Serious, if they went 2-1 they had a crappy SOS.
 
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StLouisClone said:
I am still nervous. We have more Quad 1 games played than anyone else. We are 8-7. Lots of bubble teams are 4-2, 3-1 or 2-1. I'm not sure 8-7 is any better than 2-1. So I think we need to win 1-2 more games to feel more confident we are in.
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Texas Tech 7-6
Texas 5-7
Alabama 7-7
Xavier 5-7
Marquette 7-7
Tennessee 5-7

8-7 is not that bad.
 
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Kaner04 said:
8 quad 1 wins is a hell of a lot better than 2
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I didn't put this out there so it doesn't seem you were trying to reply to me but you did.

Still I will say that while I disagree with the initial post, there are a few on the committee that look at Q1 winning percentage to offset some teams not getting as many opportunities. I think they are the minority, but they exist.

I believe that is silly. When a team can spend an extra 2 practice segments for the only 5 serious games because they play a bunch of nobodies in between it kind of should work the opposite way.
 
StLouisClone said:
I am still nervous. We have more Quad 1 games played than anyone else. We are 8-7. Lots of bubble teams are 4-2, 3-1 or 2-1. I'm not sure 8-7 is any better than 2-1. So I think we need to win 1-2 more games to feel more confident we are in.
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Where are all these bubble teams that are 4-2, 3-1 or 2-1? Of all the teams Net 35 to 85, I count

Wyoming, SMU, UAB, Davidson, Miami, Rutgers, New Mexico State.

All of those teams have 3 quad 3 or quad 4 loses except Davidson with 0 and Wyaming with 2.

Also, there is plenty of precidence that a low number of good wins will keep a team out of the tournament
 
Looks like TCU has pulled away from WVU a bit. I was hoping for a 4-OT barn burner!
 
Cyforce said:
I only count 6 wins against tournament teams this year and TCU may lose their next 6 starting Wednesday.
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According to Bracket Matrix averages you have Iowa, Creighton, Xavier, Memphis, Tech, Texas and TCU. Granted, TCU, Memphis and Creighton are very bubbly. But so is Oklahoma.
 
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