WILLIAMS: Analyzing Iowa State’s NCAA Tournament situation after a big week

[WastedTalent]

We like to see more value being placed on Quad 1 wins and resume quality rather than NET and predictive metrics.

This has always seemed an odd comment for the committee to make, because Quads are based off NET rankings. So on one hand a team has a bunch of Quad 1 wins, which is good, but another team has a high NET ranking, but is actually not that good, because they don't have enough Quad 1 wins.

 

[mikeiastat]

This has always seemed an odd comment for the committee to make, because Quads are based off NET rankings. So on one hand a team has a bunch of Quad 1 wins, which is good, but another team has a high NET ranking, but is actually not that good, because they don't have enough Quad 1 wins.

It totally makes sense.

It's easy for a team like Iowa and Houston to play the game and fudge the net ranking for a single outlier. I think they are now calling it the initial sorting.

but to have every one of your opponents to be an outlier is not likely. It's a micro versus macro type view. It's very difficult to game the wider look over a resume.

You can easily game the raw numbers through the analytics, and by having your throw away games slightly better than other teams throw away games.

 

[WastedTalent]

It totally makes sense.

It's easy for a team like Iowa and Houston to play the game and fudge the net ranking for a single outlier. I think they are now calling it the initial sorting.

but to have every one of your opponents to be an outlier is not likely. It's a micro versus macro type view. It's very difficult to game the wider look over a resume.

You can easily game the raw numbers through the analytics, and by having your throw away games slightly better than other teams throw away games.

That tells me that the NET is slightly flawed, which many have argued. What if a team had 5 Quad 1 wins, but they were over Houston, Iowa and Ohio St? Who are ranked 4, 19 and 20, but have 2 combined Quad 1 wins between the 3 of them.

I get that it's a matrix, and is only used as a tool for the committee, but it's always seemed odd brag on Quad wins, but also dog the overall NET rankings.

 

[jsb]

Is Wednesday the most important game? Win and we can't really have a bad loss the rest of the way. Lose and we might need to get 2 out of 3?

 

[mikeiastat]

That tells me that the NET is slightly flawed, which many have argued. What if a team had 5 Quad 1 wins, but they were over Houston, Iowa and Ohio St? Who are ranked 4, 19 and 20, but have 2 combined Quad 1 wins between the 3 of them.

I get that it's a matrix, and is only used as a tool for the committee, but it's always seemed odd brag on Quad wins, but also dog the overall NET rankings.

I'm not sure what you don't get. I was pretty clear. In statistics they have a saying you don't throw the baby out with the bath water.

You can easily game the base data but it's very hard to game the derivative data. You can see what's going on with the anomalies.

If it can easily be explained, it is prudent to discount it or even ignore it. It would be impossible to know which teams you can beat but would run up the score and press the other teams scrubs down 15 with under a minute.

You have very little control over what your opponent does after you play them. But the Busch league stuff that iowa and Michigan had a huge impact on analytics and the base net of just themselves.

It's a result of playing the game with little class not of actually beating teams for relevant wins. Really after the Q2 games the Mov should be taken with a grain of salt if not completely thrown out.

 

[Big_Sill]

This is just stupid. I came into the season with about the highest expectations of anyone around here. 7-11 is about at the highest I thought was even possible.

If anyone is disappointed in this season they have no clue what they are taking about. You can be disappointed in specific games I know I’m disappointed in those games but the season as a whole has already been a success.

Pre season expectations are irrelevant when you start 12-0 and are ranked 8th in the country with a great chance to achieve a power 16 seed in the NCAA tourney. Its disrespectful to our team and coaches to think they didn't want to achieve more after the start.

 

[Urbandale2013]

Pre season expectations are irrelevant when you start 12-0 and are ranked 8th in the country with a great chance to achieve a power 16 seed in the NCAA tourney. Its disrespectful to our team and coaches to think they didn't want to achieve more after the start.

No you just got sucked into the hype and haven’t then reset your expectations. We were never a top 10 team. I think we are more in the top 25 and play in the by far toughest conference. If you put even WV in another conference they would be a tourney team. As it is they aren’t because someone has to lose.

 

[dahliaclone]

Is Wednesday the most important game? Win and we can't really have a bad loss the rest of the way. Lose and we might need to get 2 out of 3?

Personally, and I know Blum and Chris said the same thing on their podcast last night, if we just win one game the rest of the way, we'll still be in Dayton. We might be wrong, but look at all the posts about the other bubble teams and their resumes...no one touches ours. 6 wins in the league gets us to Dayton. 7 solidly in. 8 we're out of the 8/9 game. 8 +1 in KC and we're on the 6/7 line IMO

 

[clone52]

Personally, and I know Blum and Chris said the same thing on their podcast last night, if we just win one game the rest of the way, we'll still be in Dayton. We might be wrong, but look at all the posts about the other bubble teams and their resumes...no one touches ours. 6 wins in the league gets us to Dayton. 7 solidly in. 8 we're out of the 8/9 game. 8 +1 in KC and we're on the 6/7 line IMO

You're being too pessimistic, in my opinion. 5 league wins makes us sweat, depending on bid stealers. 6 wins and we are easily in. 7 gets us a single digit seed and 8 or more probably gets us a 5 or 6 seed.

 

[NENick]

I don't disagree. But look at the teams he has in the 8/9 seeds. Maybe swap out ISU and Marquette? Every other team Iowa State has a better resume and it's not debatable.

Look at Palm's 6-seeds. The main difference between those 4 and Iowa State is they had more Q-2 opportunities, while the Big 12 is all Q-1.

 

[SolarGarlic]

No you just got sucked into the hype and haven’t then reset your expectations. We were never a top 10 team. I think we are more in the top 25 and play in the by far toughest conference. If you put even WV in another conference they would be a tourney team. As it is they aren’t because someone has to lose.

I told a friend at that time we aren't a top 8 team and probably closer to an 8 seed. I think a lot of the fanbase felt the same way. It was fun, but it was going to be tough to maintain that trajectory.

 

[Allikat]

Presuming we get in (barring a collapse I think we do). What seed would you prefer?

While I would prefer we avoid a play-in game in Dayton, an 11 seed is better for us than an 8 or 9 seed. While 7/10 is irrelevant, I wouldn't mind waiting a weekend before facing a top two seed.

Here is one fan hoping for a nice end of season roll - a fantastic KC showing - followed by a 4-6 seed in the tourney. Win in KC and we get a 3 seed?

If, however, we limp to the line and get an 11 seed, the season has been great, and I look forward to being everyone's vogue Cinderella to advance.

 

[dahliaclone]

Presuming we get in (barring a collapse I think we do). What seed would you prefer?

While I would prefer we avoid a play-in game in Dayton, an 11 seed is better for us than an 8 or 9 seed. While 7/10 is irrelevant, I wouldn't mind waiting a weekend before facing a top two seed.

Here is one fan hoping for a nice end of season roll - a fantastic KC showing - followed by a 4-6 seed in the tourney. Win in KC and we get a 3 seed?

If, however, we limp to the line and get an 11 seed, the season has been great, and I look forward to being everyone's vogue Cinderella to advance.

I would love it if we could get a 6 seed. I'm afraid we're destined for a 7/8/9/10 though.

 

[gocubs2118]

I don’t think a 6 seed is that far fetched. A lot of updated brackets as of this morning have us on the 7/8 line right now. If we can go 3-1 these next two weeks and beat Texas in the first round, I’d be surprised if we weren’t on the 6 line. That would give us 10 Quad 1 wins and 13 quad1/2 overall. Not many teams will be able to say that.

 

[jsb]

I don’t think a 6 seed is that far fetched. A lot of updated brackets as of this morning have us on the 7/8 line right now. If we can go 3-1 these next two weeks and beat Texas in the first round, I’d be surprised if we weren’t on the 6 line. That would give us 10 Quad 1 wins and 13 quad1/2 overall. Not many teams will be able to say that.

If that happens of course a 6 is possible. I just think maybe we are putting the horse before the cart. Our play over the last 2 months makes it seem unlikely we win 3 out of 4 and beat Texas.

 

[Big_Sill]

No you just got sucked into the hype and haven’t then reset your expectations. We were never a top 10 team. I think we are more in the top 25 and play in the by far toughest conference. If you put even WV in another conference they would be a tourney team. As it is they aren’t because someone has to lose.

Being overrated (we all knew it) doesn't change the opportunity the team earned for itself at the beginning of conference play. I suspect this team wanted to seize that opportunity, and likely wasn't able to from a conference record perspective (yes the season is not over).

I think the appropriate way to look back on this, will be to look at home losses to KSU and TCU as where it went "wrong". This doesn't mean we can't enjoy the season, and be proud of where the program is headed, but it will be a lost opportunity to put us in a good position to make a sweet 16, and thus my sense of dissatisfaction.

Go ahead and use the dumb button again.

 

[Statefan10]

Being overrated (we all knew it) doesn't change the opportunity the team earned for itself at the beginning of conference play. I suspect this team wanted to seize that opportunity, and likely wasn't able to from a conference record perspective (yes the season is not over).

I think the appropriate way to look back on this, will be to look at home losses to KSU and TCU as where it went "wrong". This doesn't mean we can't enjoy the season, and be proud of where the program is headed, but it will be a lost opportunity to put us in a good position to make a sweet 16, and thus my sense of dissatisfaction.

Go ahead and use the dumb button again.

If you’re sincerely disappointed in not making a Sweet 16 in year 1 of a head coach, then that’s probably on you right? Expectations surely change but it’s still all about perspective. Instead of thinking negatively you could think positively that we’re the most improved team in the nation and in year one we get to be disappointed in being a 7 seed instead of a 5 seed.

It’s a glorious problem to have lol.

 

[CloniesForLife]

If that happens of course a 6 is possible. I just think maybe we are putting the horse before the cart. Our play over the last 2 months makes it seem unlikely we win 3 out of 4 and beat Texas.

Part of me is optimistic and feeling like we should easily go 2-2 and potentially 3-1 to end the year and the other part of me just wants one more win. Play clean and limit 3s like the last couple games and I like our chances in every game but no gimmes

 

[Big_Sill]

If you’re sincerely disappointed in not making a Sweet 16 in year 1 of a head coach, then that’s probably on you right? Expectations surely change but it’s still all about perspective. Instead of thinking negatively you could think positively that we’re the most improved team in the nation and in year one we get to be disappointed in being a 7 seed instead of a 5 seed.

It’s a glorious problem to have lol.

My expectation at the beginning of conference play was that we would earn a seed in the NCAA tournament that would put us in a good position to make a sweet 16, not that we would make a sweet 16. I think 9-9 in conference will, or would, get us to that position and is a reasonable measure.

 

[Statefan10]

My expectation at the beginning of conference play was that we would earn a seed in the NCAA tournament that would put us in a good position to make a sweet 16, not that we would make a sweet 16. I think 9-9 in conference will, or would, get us to that position and is a reasonable measure.

That’s fair. I’m not going to tell you how to think or how you should view things. If those were the expectations you set then so be it!

My personal expectations were to make the tournament. I also hope to avoid the 8/9 matchup for various reasons. I also hope if we do see a 2 seed in the second round it’s not someone we’ve seen before (KU, BU or TTU).