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Tyler Goodson announcement

besserheimerphat said:
Iowa met (exceeded?) their expectations despite fielding one of the worst offenses in FBS. ISU did not meet their W-L expectations despite returning a ton from last year's team.

In the data-driven rankings I prefer (because I understand how they work and agree with their assumptions), ISU and UI are ranked similarly in the high teens. These are based off of play-by-play or drive-by-drive data and are adjusted for opponent. Some have ISU higher; some have UI higher. But the difference is less than 3 places.

I've said this consistently, but head-to-head is WILDLY overrated when it comes to measuring the quality of a team. There is too much variance in the sport for any single game to mean anything. If it weren't, there wouldn't be upsets.
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Iowa’s O/U was 7.5 lol
 
HFCS said:
What is this like valuing a RB vs his offensive line thinking if you have the best offensive line any RB would get yards?

I usually thought Goodson was their only chance of advancing the ball on offense. I didn't think their other backs looked equally dangerous.

So Breece is #38? What does that mean? In terms of his skills he is definitely not anywhere near the 20s let alone 30s. Tyler Badie is #61 and he's nearly the statistically best RB while playing in SEC?
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EPA is a bit of a weird stat. Each combination of down/distance/yard line has an Expected Point value. Say 1st and 10 from your own 25 has +2 EP. The RB carries the ball for 2 yards, resulting in 2nd and 8 from your own 27. This new scenario has a +1.9 EP. Then the Expected Points Added for that play is 1.9 minus 2, or -0.1. Take each play where the RB was the ball carrier and you can calculate his average EPA. Its possible to gain lots of yards while still having a negative average EPA. EPA tends to be driven by big plays and converting 1st downs or TDs. If you don't do those things while rushing for 1500 yards, your EPA could be lower than someone who only rushes for 400 yards but always converts 1st downs/TDs.
 
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besserheimerphat said:
EPA is a bit of a weird stat. Each combination of down/distance/yard line has an Expected Point value. Say 1st and 10 from your own 25 has +2 EP. The RB carries the ball for 2 yards, resulting in 2nd and 8 from your own 27. This new scenario has a +1.9 EP. Then the Expected Points Added for that play is 1.9 minus 2, or -0.1. Take each play where the RB was the ball carrier and you can calculate his average EPA. Its possible to gain lots of yards while still having a negative average EPA. EPA tends to be driven by big plays and converting 1st downs or TDs. If you don't do those things while rushing for 1500 yards, your EPA could be lower than someone who only rushes for 400 yards but always converts 1st downs/TDs.
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could an Iowa rb be surprisingly low because most of their scoring was set up by d and special teams?

He’s not incredible but he’s an above average fbs back.
 
CyTwins said:
He's not a top 20 draft eligible RB
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Just saying it's not as crazy as it seems. If there was indeed some sort of rift it makes a lot of sense. Why would he want to come back for another year of terrible play calling, blocking and QB play?
 
HFCS said:
could an Iowa rb be surprisingly low because most of their scoring was set up by d and special teams?

He’s not incredible but he’s an above average fbs back.
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Maybe... If the D/ST is consistently producing short fields, then there are a lot of missed opportunities for him to gain EPA on their own side of the field (though the D/ST can be credited for huge EPAs). But, as you get closer to the endzone the same 3 yard gain gets you a higher EPA. So that could be offset. Looking at the distribution that guy created specifically for Goodson, its saying that even though he might have done things that are good for him, it didn't translate to improving the team's situation very often.

One consideration is lots of guys that do this calculation take out whatever they consider to be "garbage time" - any plays that occur when the game is functionally already over. So if he's racking up yards while Iowa is up by 21 in the 4th Quarter, he may not be getting credit for those runs. There's no standard calculation for EPA so you have to dig into how different people calculate it.
 
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Nader_uggghhh said:
Just saying it's not as crazy as it seems. If there was indeed some sort of rift it makes a lot of sense. Why would he want to come back for another year of terrible play calling, blocking and QB play?
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I mean it's pretty crazy because he will have to pay to finish his degree if he wants to and the Barnstormers don't pay well
 
CyTwins said:
I mean it's pretty crazy because he will have to pay to finish his degree if he wants to and the Barnstormers don't pay well
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I hope it works out for him, he seems like a decent person. Him leaving isn't great for Iowa, we can probably agree on that.
 
Nader_uggghhh said:
Just saying it's not as crazy as it seems. If there was indeed some sort of rift it makes a lot of sense. Why would he want to come back for another year of terrible play calling, blocking and QB play?
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Hawk buddy said there’s a message board rumor of the Goodson’s borrowing money from other parents and not paying it back as the reason

can one of the trolls confirm this? Since I don’t go there
 
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