Question for The Ages

[steinsway]

I’m perplexed. Perhaps there is someone smarter than me on here who can answer this question. Let me preface it by saying gratefully that I believe Matt Campbell gets it. He is as close to “can do no wrong” as a head coach at ISU can possibly get. He is refreshingly tuned in to excellence beyond my wildest imagination in a head coach.

So here’s my question sports fans: why does a Matt Campbell team have to get behind, or in some fashion have their back against the wall, before they start playing??

They have the freaking talent that’s good and keeps gettin better. Historically though they don’t play complete games, and don’t give us their very best until there back sides are feelin the heat.

What would it look like, and what would hafta happen for them to come out with guns blazin from the very beginning???

I know there have been a few teams we’ve laid the wood on. K State come to mind last year with that slobberknockin at the Jack. But that was due to them bein more Covid constricted than us havin fire in the belly.

So what are your theories for why we have to be down not out before we start lightin it up? And what would it look like if we came out lightin it up with reckless abandon from opening kickoff???

Signed,
Just Wonderin

 

[CYTUTT]

Is that Just Wonderin, or Captain Obvious? Seriously, if anyone knew, they would make a lot of money. I know I’m zero help, but if Campbell doesn’t know, then it may never be known.

 

[hoosman]

1. Probability theory. Do what ever has the best reward/risk ratio. The problem is that for every down/distance and field position scenario, there is a different reward/risk ratio for each play. It takes a genius to know all the permutations. Manning is not that guy. Also, the opposition knows your every move on play calling as if they are in the huddle with you. We are extremely risk adverse on offense play calling and on special teams , and we still make huge mistakes. ISU rarely goes for 4th down, fake punts, punt blocks, punt returns, jet sweep, flanker pass, halfback screen, etc because the odds are against you unless you really work on execution.
2. Body blows. Every run up the middle for a small gain is a supposed body blow to the opposition. The team that runs the most plays will wear out the opposing defense. The problem with this is that every play has to be positive (no penalties or pass drops)because there are no plays available to get you extra yards when you need to make up lost ground. Another problem is that you are very predictable in play calling.
3. Defensive adjustments at halftime. Ever notice that we have a soft, prevent defense in the first half , and then make adjustments in the second half? Wouldn’t it be nice to actually have the adjustments scouted and installed when the game starts?
4. Clock management. Run as few plays as possible by running the play clock down. This minimizes game day exertion and injuries. The problem with this is that when we are the deeper/stronger team , this works against you. We never run up temp offense, even with limited time available, or if we have superior depth.
5. In Heacock we trust. Don’t worry about getting first downs. Let’s go ahead and punt because it’s impossible for the ISU defense to ever make a mistake or give up points. Same thing for special teams - give up 10 yards on every exchange because our defense will ALWAYS bail us out on bad field position.
6. Sideline savior. Throw deep only along the sideline to avoid risk. This reduces the probability of a completion by 50% because there is no room to make route adjustments. 6a. run out of bounds to avoid contact when running with the ball. This avoids injury and also avoids getting first downs.

 

[steinsway]

Well done hoosman, not just one theory, but FIVE!!!!! And all quality, plausible theories at that. Nice ta see a thinking man on these threads and refreshing ta read something other than a piss or a moan. Post on!!

 

[BWRhasnoAC]

They need to be coached with a greater sense of urgency. We're trying to be a slow team and I think it saps the crowds energy and excitement. Of course the team out East gets it done like this, so its obviously possible. I just think were trying to use certain key players in the wrong way on offense right now.

 

[norcalcy]

3. Defensive adjustments at halftime. Ever notice that we have a soft, prevent defense in the first half , and then make adjustments in the second half? Wouldn’t it be nice to actually have the adjustments scouted and installed when the game starts?

I have to quibble with this one. No defense is perfect and there is no way to install the perfect defensive plan. As frustrating as it is to watch our offense, it is extremely fun to watch our defensive staff and players size up an opponent and make adjustments in real time. The second half stats over the last half dozen games or so are amazing. I can't remember a recent instance where the defense put us behind the 8 ball in a major way. As many have noted, we are sorely lacking the same dynamic creativity on the offensive side of the ball. There is not a single Campbell era defensive player on an NFL roster right now, yet this defensive system has stymied multiple opponents since the corner was turned in 2017.

 

[quasistellar]

There is not a single Campbell era defensive player on an NFL roster right now, yet this defensive system has stymied multiple opponents since the corner was turned in 2017.

Wow is that really true? I'd bet my house that's not true this time next year, though.

Just goes to show that Heacock is a gd wizard and almost as important to ISU as Campbell.

 

[steinsway]

Is that Just Wonderin, or Captain Obvious? Seriously, if anyone knew, they would make a lot of money. I know I’m zero help, but if Campbell doesn’t know, then it may never be known.

If Campbell and company knew wouldn’t he have already responded to the problem with some consistency? I get the risk averse ness that some of you are suggesting here but don’t we have the talent and the commitment to development, not to mention facilities and administrative support, to overcome a few screw ups from takin chances??

 

[norcalcy]

Wow is that really true? I'd bet my house that's not true this time next year, though.

Just goes to show that Heacock is a gd wizard and almost as important to ISU as Campbell.

Yes. Sad but true. ISU has 7 players on NFL rosters, four of whom are recruits that pre-date CMC's arrival. For the record, UNI currently has 6. Iowa has 36. ISU has fewer NFL guys than some MAC teams. Not trying to be negative, this shows what has been accomplished with player and depth development. The record since 2017, accomplished with solid but unremarkable recruiting classes, has been amazing.

I would agree some of the top defensive players we currently have will get a shot.

 

[dirtyninety]

That movie/musical "Rock of Ages" kind of creeps me out.

 

[Gunnerclone]

1. Probability theory. Do what ever has the best reward/risk ratio. The problem is that for every down/distance and field position scenario, there is a different reward/risk ratio for each play. It takes a genius to know all the permutations. Manning is not that guy. Also, the opposition knows your every move on play calling as if they are in the huddle with you. We are extremely risk adverse on offense play calling and on special teams , and we still make huge mistakes. ISU rarely goes for 4th down, fake punts, punt blocks, punt returns, jet sweep, flanker pass, halfback screen, etc because the odds are against you unless you really work on execution.
2. Body blows. Every run up the middle for a small gain is a supposed body blow to the opposition. The team that runs the most plays will wear out the opposing defense. The problem with this is that every play has to be positive (no penalties or pass drops)because there are no plays available to get you extra yards when you need to make up lost ground. Another problem is that you are very predictable in play calling.
3. Defensive adjustments at halftime. Ever notice that we have a soft, prevent defense in the first half , and then make adjustments in the second half? Wouldn’t it be nice to actually have the adjustments scouted and installed when the game starts?
4. Clock management. Run as few plays as possible by running the play clock down. This minimizes game day exertion and injuries. The problem with this is that when we are the deeper/stronger team , this works against you. We never run up temp offense, even with limited time available, or if we have superior depth.
5. In Heacock we trust. Don’t worry about getting first downs. Let’s go ahead and punt because it’s impossible for the ISU defense to ever make a mistake or give up points. Same thing for special teams - give up 10 yards on every exchange because our defense will ALWAYS bail us out on bad field position.
6. Sideline savior. Throw deep only along the sideline to avoid risk. This reduces the probability of a completion by 50% because there is no room to make route adjustments. 6a. run out of bounds to avoid contact when running with the ball. This avoids injury and also avoids getting first downs.

That’s great to have the scouting perfect before the game, but the opponent isn’t just going to come In and do exactly what we think or what we want them do.

 

[cyclones12321]

I wish we could figure it out as well. Same reason I wish we could play Iowa towards the end of the season so we’d be playing our best. It’s nice that we usually get better every game but would be nice to hit the ground running from the hit go. As for in a game I think turnovers and special teams are the biggest issue. We also seem to move the ball well until we get into the redzone then we blow it then we allow a kr TD or something like that then all momentum is lost. When we come out playing well it looks like the Oregon win last year. If we played how we should be capable of playing and didn’t turn the ball over 4 times vs Iowa and have what seemed like a average starting field position vs Iowa at the 10 then we win that game and once again if our special teams didn’t suck we beat Baylor. 5-0 should be what it would look like

I’m perplexed. Perhaps there is someone smarter than me on here who can answer this question. Let me preface it by saying gratefully that I believe Matt Campbell gets it. He is as close to “can do no wrong” as a head coach at ISU can possibly get. He is refreshingly tuned in to excellence beyond my wildest imagination in a head coach.

So here’s my question sports fans: why does a Matt Campbell team have to get behind, or in some fashion have their back against the wall, before they start playing??

They have the freaking talent that’s good and keeps gettin better. Historically though they don’t play complete games, and don’t give us their very best until there back sides are feelin the heat.

What would it look like, and what would hafta happen for them to come out with guns blazin from the very beginning???

I know there have been a few teams we’ve laid the wood on. K State come to mind last year with that slobberknockin at the Jack. But that was due to them bein more Covid constricted than us havin fire in the belly.

So what are your theories for why we have to be down not out before we start lightin it up? And what would it look like if we came out lightin it up with reckless abandon from opening kickoff???

Signed,
Just Wonderin

 

[tolfbfan]

I’m perplexed. Perhaps there is someone smarter than me on here who can answer this question. Let me preface it by saying gratefully that I believe Matt Campbell gets it. He is as close to “can do no wrong” as a head coach at ISU can possibly get. He is refreshingly tuned in to excellence beyond my wildest imagination in a head coach.

So here’s my question sports fans: why does a Matt Campbell team have to get behind, or in some fashion have their back against the wall, before they start playing??

They have the freaking talent that’s good and keeps gettin better. Historically though they don’t play complete games, and don’t give us their very best until there back sides are feelin the heat.

What would it look like, and what would hafta happen for them to come out with guns blazin from the very beginning???

I know there have been a few teams we’ve laid the wood on. K State come to mind last year with that slobberknockin at the Jack. But that was due to them bein more Covid constricted than us havin fire in the belly.

So what are your theories for why we have to be down not out before we start lightin it up? And what would it look like if we came out lightin it up with reckless abandon from opening kickoff???

Signed,
Just Wonderin

The talent gap between teams is minimal during the game. Depth is important, but you can only put 11 out there at a time. Winning a total of 8, 9,10,11,or 12 games is so within the margins that it comes down to players making plays [turnovers]. That simple in my mind.

 

[madguy30]

I don't believe ISU has been in actual prevent to start games. As a matter of fact they've looked more aggressive than past years. Usually the blitzes start trickling in as the game goes on.

They were pretty soft vs. KU though but likely for a reason.

And a 'slow down' offense i.e. time between plays can still be crisp and done with purpose. ISU has been missing that so far.

Being succinct will be crucial this weekend.

 

[LarryISU]

When we come out playing well it looks like the Oregon win last year.

A big part of that Fiesta Bowl win was all the turnovers that Oregon gave us. I would like to see us be able to win those games without relying on turnovers, or even win games despite our own turnovers.

I agree with the OP that it seems we rarely come out and play our best from the start of the game. I always hope we win the coin toss because then we start out on defense. Maybe it is just my perception, but it just seems if we start the game with our offense on the field, I expect a punt. We just don't click early on.

 

[cycophagus]

September notwithstanding, I think the biggest factors in the slow starts week to week are that:

• To a degree, ISU is a victim of its own success. Being favored in most games, opponents pump themselves up with an underdog "chip on the shoulder".
• Knowing they are going up against CMC, opposing coaching staffs lay it all on the line. A win can get them a new contract, or even a job in the NFL.
• Team culture has produced a team of adrenaline junkies. They have great confidence as a team, yet are never completely focused without the rush of game time adversity.

 

[VeloClone]

A big part of that Fiesta Bowl win was all the turnovers that Oregon gave us. I would like to see us be able to win those games without relying on turnovers, or even win games despite our own turnovers.

I agree with the OP that it seems we rarely come out and play our best from the start of the game. I always hope we win the coin toss because then we start out on defense. Maybe it is just my perception, but it just seems if we start the game with our offense on the field, I expect a punt. We just don't click early on.

I think people tend to go to one of two extremes with turnovers. Either a team created every turnover or a team gave the ball away every time. Generally it is more nuanced than that. Some turnovers are simply a product of an offensive mistake and being at the right place at the right time. Others are pretty much totally created by tipping a pass, making a great break on a ball, a deadly strip of a ball carrier or a well timed smack of the QBs arm. Most turnovers actually fall somewhere in between.

Take a look at my favorite turnover clip. Many said Nebraska gave the game away to ISU by giving them the ball 8 times. Nebraska did give the ball away on some of them, but look at how many times ISU created a turnover. Again, the truth is almost always somewhere in the middle.



This is also just a shameless opportunity to post that clip.

 

[steinsway]

All great replies so far. Must admit tho, after the Texas game where we did little in the first half and were unstoppable in the 2nd, and the Texas tech game where we almost pulled off the come from behind miracle, I’m still scratchin my head.
I realize there’s an opponent on the field and the old adage applies that “planning is great until your opponent throws the first punch.” Nor do I expect 1000% consistency from half to half and game to game.
But the pattern of lack of urgency until our backsides are against the wall is uncanny.
I’m still searching. Shed more light if ya have it.

 

[t-noah]

That’s great to have the scouting perfect before the game, but the opponent isn’t just going to come In and do exactly what we think or what we want them do.

Why not. We often do. In the first half, ha.

 

[cayin]

A big part of that Fiesta Bowl win was all the turnovers that Oregon gave us. I would like to see us be able to win those games without relying on turnovers, or even win games despite our own turnovers.

I agree with the OP that it seems we rarely come out and play our best from the start of the game. I always hope we win the coin toss because then we start out on defense. Maybe it is just my perception, but it just seems if we start the game with our offense on the field, I expect a punt. We just don't click early on.

You know, nobody talks about the turnovers against Oregon. They even fumbled a kick off or a punt if I remember. As we saw against Iowa, trying to overcome 4 turnovers is almost impossible.