Prohm was 1-17 in two score games the last two years. Go .500 and things don't look as bleak. I am optimistically hoping TJ is a better in game coach, prepares and puts the players in better positions and the "luck" factor balances out. If ISU can win the gimme games (7-8 wins), be better than .500 in close games (5-6 wins), and pull a couple of upsets, that could get you to 13-16 wins with an average team. If they can get a decent (or two) transfer, they could grab a couple more and maybe be close to the bubble at 17-18 wins.
I am an eternal optimist. Maybe none of this will happen, but it COULD happen.