Conference Realignment

[isucy86]

As others have mentioned, Dodd's comments on Big12 expansion might be rooting in past economics.

Unless the school added is going to bring $40M+/school annually, then it doesn't make sense to expand the Big12. I can't think of a reason ISU would want to add Cincinnati, Houston, UCF, etc. if they dilute ISU's TV revenue payout.

As others have mentioned, the paradigm might change with the next round of TV contract negotiations that will be negotiated over the next 3 years.

• Do we see a mix of TV rights and subscription base like ESPN+. It will be interesting if Netflix, Prime or YouTube, etc. jump into the game to gain subscribers.
• Do we see conferences going to a direct to consumer models. With SmartTVs and tools like Roku, there aren't a lot of barriers for entities like Conferences (or the NFL) to go broadcast directly to the consumer.
• There have been reports of the P5 schools breaking off from the remainder of D1 schools. The Knight Commission recently reiterated this recommendation. If that happens, do the P5 schools negotiate a single TV contract instead of each conference doing so. If this happens, the idea of 14-16 team conferences become obsolete. Instead we would see 10-11 team divisions that might work nicely with an 8 team playoff.

===
If schools like Texas and OU feel they are falling behind schools like Alabama, A&M, Ohio State or Michigan because of money. IMO an incremental solution of adding schools like Cincinnati, Mizzou, Nebraska, SMU or even the Arizona schools isn't going to bring in incremental money. They could look to blow up the Big 12 & Pac 12 and create a super conference of high revenue/large population teams.

Something like the below might create a conference that could compete with the Big12 and SEC for maximum revenues per school. I went with an 11 conference league because IMO that is ideal. Play 10 conference games and 2 non conference in football and allows for round robin 20 game basketball schedule.

South/West 11 Conference
Texas ($223.9M)
Oklahoma ($163.1M)
Washington ($133.8M)
Oregon ($127.5M)
Arizona State ($121.7M)
Kansas ($121.6M)
UCLA ($108.4M)
Arizona ($105.1M)
Utah ($99.5M)
USC (Private)
Stanford (Private)

Those on the outside looking in would be:
WVU ($102.7M) - Geographic reasons
Texas Tech ($96.6M)
Iowa State ($95.4M)
Oklahoma State ($95.3M)
Colorado ($94.9M)
Kansas State ($89.9M)
California ($87.5M)
Oregon State ($82.0M)
Washington State ($71.7M)
Baylor (Private)
TCU (Private)

 

[CYCLNST8]

And why would we/they (BYU) want to be in Big 12 in football only again? Is it the Sunday thing with their religion or something else?

Travel. No sense making West Virginia & BYU go cross country constantly. If it's just football, we could rotate the schedule so that they're not facing each other every year. We could stay at 10 teams for the Olympic sports and keep the round robin.

BYU's Olympic sports are just fine in the West Coast Conference.

 

[t-noah]

Travel. No sense making West Virginia & BYU go cross country constantly. If it's just football, we could rotate the schedule so that they're not facing each other every year. We could stay at 10 teams for the Olympic sports and keep the round robin.

BYU's Olympic sports are just fine in the West Coast Conference.

OK thanks.

Flash! Big 12 drops West Va, adds BYU, Arizona, Arizona St.!!!! Edit: ...and Arkansas!
You're welcome.

 

[Remo Gaggi]

I recall Jamie Pollard saying that it was imperative that we get very good at football very soon. This was in regards to upcoming Grant of Rights expiration in 2024 for the Big XII. This was a few years ago, so who knows what will happen.

 

[2speedy1]

You stoned

Unfortunately No, You holdin?

 

[CyCrazy]

Unfortunately No, You holdin?

Nope, but wouldnt turn down some edibles.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

One interesting thought in regards to realignment: If the Big 12 Missile Crisis were to happen again, has Iowa State's profile increased enough in the last decade to not be on the outside looking in?

-If the Big 12 were to implode today, the other 4 power conferences would likely go to 16.

-ACC adds ND to get to 15, needs one more​

-Big 10 needs to add 2​

-SEC needs to add 2​

-Pac 12 needs to add 4​

-The AAC will likely take whoever is left​

-The Big 12 schools will likely be packaged as such: Texas and TTU are tied together, OU and OSU are tied together, KU and KState are tied together, BU and TCU are loosely together, WVU and ISU are free to make choiced independently.

-WVU is a natural fit with ACC, easy addition​

-OU and OSU will be targeted by Big 10​

-Texas wants to be the big boy in the room, so they will lean Pac 12 and take Tech with them​

-KU will be targeted (for basketball mostly) by the Pac 12, bringing KState with them​

​

That leaves 2 spots in the SEC for Iowa State, Baylor, and TCU, along with all of the AAC schools. Still not a great outlook for the Cyclones, unfortunately. We would likely need a conference to go beyond 16 teams in order to find a landing spot in a power conference.

If the ACC wanted any part of West Virginia, they would be playing there now instead of the Big 12. Twice before the ACC took a pass on WV, and that is not changing in the future.

No way in hell that the Big 10 accept OSU, not an AAU school, and their academics are horrible. OU is also not a AAU school, they would go to the SEC in a package deal.

No way UT wants to play half their games 2 time zones away, they take the LHN and join ND in the ACC.

The Big 10 jumps on Kansas, and then struggle finding another school, they finally agree the school that checks the most boxes is right in their backyard, over the objection of EIU, ISU gets an invite.

Who cares where the rest would end up. Really none of this is going to happen, the Big 12 with its round robin play works well, and with cable cutting picking up, the game has changed.

 

[cycloneML]

As others have mentioned, Dodd's comments on Big12 expansion might be rooting in past economics.

Unless the school added is going to bring $40M+/school annually, then it doesn't make sense to expand the Big12. I can't think of a reason ISU would want to add Cincinnati, Houston, UCF, etc. if they dilute ISU's TV revenue payout.

As others have mentioned, the paradigm might change with the next round of TV contract negotiations that will be negotiated over the next 3 years.

• Do we see a mix of TV rights and subscription base like ESPN+. It will be interesting if Netflix, Prime or YouTube, etc. jump into the game to gain subscribers.
• Do we see conferences going to a direct to consumer models. With SmartTVs and tools like Roku, there aren't a lot of barriers for entities like Conferences (or the NFL) to go broadcast directly to the consumer.
• There have been reports of the P5 schools breaking off from the remainder of D1 schools. The Knight Commission recently reiterated this recommendation. If that happens, do the P5 schools negotiate a single TV contract instead of each conference doing so. If this happens, the idea of 14-16 team conferences become obsolete. Instead we would see 10-11 team divisions that might work nicely with an 8 team playoff.

===
If schools like Texas and OU feel they are falling behind schools like Alabama, A&M, Ohio State or Michigan because of money. IMO an incremental solution of adding schools like Cincinnati, Mizzou, Nebraska, SMU or even the Arizona schools isn't going to bring in incremental money. They could look to blow up the Big 12 & Pac 12 and create a super conference of high revenue/large population teams.

Something like the below might create a conference that could compete with the Big12 and SEC for maximum revenues per school. I went with an 11 conference league because IMO that is ideal. Play 10 conference games and 2 non conference in football and allows for round robin 20 game basketball schedule.

South/West 11 Conference
Texas ($223.9M)
Oklahoma ($163.1M)
Washington ($133.8M)
Oregon ($127.5M)
Arizona State ($121.7M)
Kansas ($121.6M)
UCLA ($108.4M)
Arizona ($105.1M)
Utah ($99.5M)
USC (Private)
Stanford (Private)

Those on the outside looking in would be:
WVU ($102.7M) - Geographic reasons
Texas Tech ($96.6M)
Iowa State ($95.4M)
Oklahoma State ($95.3M)
Colorado ($94.9M)
Kansas State ($89.9M)
California ($87.5M)
Oregon State ($82.0M)
Washington State ($71.7M)
Baylor (Private)
TCU (Private)

Regents in places like Topeka and Ok City are not going to let the KSUs and OSUs get left behind the KUs and OUs of the world.

 

[NWICY]

Article

I know it has been touched on in several threads lately and thought it deserved it's own. I was lurking on a few other Big XII boards and there are a lot of interesting ideas out there. Who if any should we add? Maybe the whole thing needs a shake up. What y'all think?

Well here is how fan based realignment works every time either OU or Texa$ takes a loss in FB, they need to leave "this sh*t conference with these fuckface refs that can't get the call right. We need to go to the SEC or form a super conference with only good FB schools. "

 

[Al_4_State]

Regents in places like Topeka and Ok City are not going to let the KSUs and OSUs get left behind the KUs and OUs of the world.

Just like regents in Austin would never let Texas and Aggy separate.

 

[cycloneML]

Just like regents in Austin would never let Texas and Aggy separate.

Left behind and separate are two different realities

 

[isucy86]

Regents in places like Topeka and Ok City are not going to let the KSUs and OSUs get left behind the KUs and OUs of the world.

You could be right on Texas and Oklahoma because they are both among the top revenue schools and their football brands could pressure a South/West conference to take their sister school and drop Utah. But if a new conference is trying to maximize revenue- taking Utah with visibility in SLC metro would be more valuable than OSU/Stillwater or TT/Lubbock.

But if Kansas has the ability to play in a conference that can generate Big10 or SEC like monies or in a "leftovers" conference that would reduce KU's athletic department revenue exponentially- KU will dump KSU in a second.

Also do you think if the Big10 or SEC approached KU to join their conference, but the Big10/SEC not invite KSU that KU wouldn't move? I think KU would jump to Big10 in a second.

 

[Cloneon]

As others have mentioned, Dodd's comments on Big12 expansion might be rooting in past economics.

Unless the school added is going to bring $40M+/school annually, then it doesn't make sense to expand the Big12. I can't think of a reason ISU would want to add Cincinnati, Houston, UCF, etc. if they dilute ISU's TV revenue payout.

As others have mentioned, the paradigm might change with the next round of TV contract negotiations that will be negotiated over the next 3 years.

• Do we see a mix of TV rights and subscription base like ESPN+. It will be interesting if Netflix, Prime or YouTube, etc. jump into the game to gain subscribers.
• Do we see conferences going to a direct to consumer models. With SmartTVs and tools like Roku, there aren't a lot of barriers for entities like Conferences (or the NFL) to go broadcast directly to the consumer.
• There have been reports of the P5 schools breaking off from the remainder of D1 schools. The Knight Commission recently reiterated this recommendation. If that happens, do the P5 schools negotiate a single TV contract instead of each conference doing so. If this happens, the idea of 14-16 team conferences become obsolete. Instead we would see 10-11 team divisions that might work nicely with an 8 team playoff.

===
If schools like Texas and OU feel they are falling behind schools like Alabama, A&M, Ohio State or Michigan because of money. IMO an incremental solution of adding schools like Cincinnati, Mizzou, Nebraska, SMU or even the Arizona schools isn't going to bring in incremental money. They could look to blow up the Big 12 & Pac 12 and create a super conference of high revenue/large population teams.

Something like the below might create a conference that could compete with the Big12 and SEC for maximum revenues per school. I went with an 11 conference league because IMO that is ideal. Play 10 conference games and 2 non conference in football and allows for round robin 20 game basketball schedule.

South/West 11 Conference
Texas ($223.9M)
Oklahoma ($163.1M)
Washington ($133.8M)
Oregon ($127.5M)
Arizona State ($121.7M)
Kansas ($121.6M)
UCLA ($108.4M)
Arizona ($105.1M)
Utah ($99.5M)
USC (Private)
Stanford (Private)

Those on the outside looking in would be:
WVU ($102.7M) - Geographic reasons
Texas Tech ($96.6M)
Iowa State ($95.4M)
Oklahoma State ($95.3M)
Colorado ($94.9M)
Kansas State ($89.9M)
California ($87.5M)
Oregon State ($82.0M)
Washington State ($71.7M)
Baylor (Private)
TCU (Private)

I've tooted my horn on this as my first email to Pollard 1 week after he was hired was to convince him to envision the extinction of cable contracts and instead look at the impact the internet would play into this. Now looking back, I see one sad fact that I overlooked. Those who have control over 'influencing' viewership are the ones truly holding the cards. Case in point: the bias towards B1G in the CFP. And while the true owner of content should be the University (ie PPV), that model would quickly devolve into a negative propaganda campaign by the networks. Over the years I've seen the networks develop a narrative embracing the best campaign to make money. Not necessarily to reveal truth. This is happening all around us. Even social media is now censoring. Predicting the future is much more complicated now. Since all the cards are not yet on the table (ie Facebook, Twitter, Google, Amazon, Netflix, etc) AND since (I am absolutely convinced of this, but pray I'm wrong) the economy will suffer an extended downturn, we will not know exactly what the next round of negotiating will be. I'm sure back channels are being discussed, but the economy has to be healthy to introduce a more competitive bargaining audience. All that said, I still love reading intelligent opinions like this. Thanks!

 

[2speedy1]

Everyone says EIU would fight bringing ISU in to the B1G if (and only if) that ever came as an option if things did implode.
I don't see this.
The Regents would pressure Iowa to push to bring ISU in.
The Politics in the state would push hard for Iowa to push the conference to bring ISU in.
Iowa would bring the annual CyHawk game into conference, freeing up the non-con game for another opponent.
Regionally it makes sense.
ISU is an AAU school and one of I believe only 3 in the Big 12. (ISU, KU, TX) Which is a requirement for the B1G (note Nebraska lost its AAU credentials after joining, and has taken a lot of heat for it, and is the only B1G school not AAU)

I only see the B1G as an option if the Big 12 is no longer an option. But if the Big 12 does implode, which I do not see as likely, I do see the B1G as a decent possibility.

 

[MeanDean]

Does anyone see Vandy being left out? Or opting out? They just can't compete in either football or basketball. A great academic school without doubt. But maybe time to consider stepping back from trying to compete in big time college sports. Thoughts?

 

[isucy86]

Does anyone see Vandy being left out? Or opting out? They just can't compete in either football or basketball. A great academic school without doubt. But maybe time to consider stepping back from trying to compete in big time college sports. Thoughts?

Not sure how much revenue Vanderbilt football brings in. But if Northwestern and Stanford can be competitive then Vanderbilt can. It is all about hiring the right head coach.

Younger people don't have the history, but in the 70's and 80's Northwestern was as bad or worse than Vanderbilt is today. But they hired Gary Barnett, Randy Walker and now Pat Fitzgerald and have had a solid 25 year run.

 

[2speedy1]

Not sure how much revenue Vanderbilt football brings in. But if Northwestern and Stanford can be competitive then Vanderbilt can. It is all about hiring the right head coach.

Younger people don't have the history, but in the 70's and 80's Northwestern was as bad or worse than Vanderbilt is today. But they hired Gary Barnett, Randy Walker and now Pat Fitzgerald and have had a solid 25 year run.

I think its pretty unlikely that they give up the SEC, but if you look at the numbers on Wiki, they are last in revenue and budget by a substantial amount. They also only host 6 mens and 8 womens sports, 3-4 less per gender than the rest of the conference. Their endowment Is Substantially less than Stanford and NW too, Still quite a bit but as a private institution those big endowments pay for more. Stanford's Endowment is pushing $30 billion, Vandy's is less than $7 bn. (still a lot compared to ours, but private vs public)
I see them fighting to hold on to that SEC membership with everything they have though. They are a founding member.

 

[Cyclone27inQC]

Everyone says EIU would fight bringing ISU in to the B1G if (and only if) that ever came as an option if things did implode.
I don't see this.
The Regents would pressure Iowa to push to bring ISU in.
The Politics in the state would push hard for Iowa to push the conference to bring ISU in.
Iowa would bring the annual CyHawk game into conference, freeing up the non-con game for another opponent.
Regionally it makes sense.
ISU is an AAU school and one of I believe only 3 in the Big 12. (ISU, KU, TX) Which is a requirement for the B1G (note Nebraska lost its AAU credentials after joining, and has taken a lot of heat for it, and is the only B1G school not AAU)

I only see the B1G as an option if the Big 12 is no longer an option. But if the Big 12 does implode, which I do not see as likely, I do see the B1G as a decent possibility.

ISU would win 9-10 every year in the big 10 which is the weakest conference in football. Omg the big 10 is horrible.

 

[CyBobby]

Apart from the near implosion of the Big12 and Missouri off to the SEC a few years back, AND the circa 1860's Jayhawker-Misssouri feud, what would be holding it back? The re-addition of Missouri to Big 12 (provided they wanted to)?

As Missouri was parting ways with the Big Twelve, The Missou Athletic Director asked Kansas if they could keep playing in football/ basketball.....

The answer from Kansas was NO and HELL NO, never again....The Kansan's still talk about Quantrell(mizzou was a confederate state Kansas a Union State) coming over to Lawrence KS and burning down the town...
I know it sounds ridiculous but that's the only reason I was ever given for the Bad Blood Rivalry between Mizzou and Kansas....

I went to a season ending football game ...KU at Mizzou, with this friend of mine whose nephew played Def End for KU....Hell Bells we couldn't even get out of the parking lot without getting into a heated exchange with Mizzou Fans....
It's the most hateful rivalry I have ever seen in my life.

 

[Remo Gaggi]

ISU would win 9-10 every year in the big 10 which is the weakest conference in football. Omg the big 10 is horrible.

Absolutely correct. A trash conference, that plays absolutely no defense. The hoks gave up 21 to a junior college team yesterday. We would curbstomp baby brother. And we will in September.