Random ISU/Tech Notes (from a Tech fan)

[TechHoopsGuy]

Greetings CycyloneFanatic, here's a few random notes I put together and posted on a Tech board. Thought it might interest a few of you as well.

Iowa State has not thrown the ball very much this year. 90 drop backs by a QB, and they've been sacked (4) more than they've thrown a TD (2).

40% of Tech's drop backs resulted in touchdowns or a first down. 30% of Iowa State's drop backs resulted in touchdowns or first downs.

Iowa State has been 2x as likely this year to throw the ball more than 20 yards downfield (15% of attempts v. Tech's 8% of attempts). 50% of ISU's yards have come after the catch, while 63% of Tech's yards have come after the catch.

Tech's wide receivers have been pretty dynamic with the ball in their hands, being credited with 34 missed tackles to Iowa State's 10. On a per catch basis, though, it's not that much of a difference: Tech's wide receivers have avoided .33 tackles per catch, while Iowa State's have avoided .21 tackles per catch.

From a wide receiver standpoint, it's basically a one-man show for Iowa State: Xavier Hutchinson has 23 targets on the year, with the next highest WR having 7 targets. Tech has 6 WRs with 7 or more targets.

Breece Hall has carried the rushing load (66 carries). 36% of his carries have gone for a first down or TD. Sarodorick & Xavier White have also been pretty productive, with 45% of their carries going for a first down or TD. From a missed tackle per touch standpoint, Breece Hall might be the best in the conference, although Sarodorick isn't too far behind him.

Tech has really tackled well this year. Huge improvement from prior years. .10 missed tackles per snap for Tech's defense. Iowa State is also a really sound tackling team (.18 missed tackles per snap).

One major difference between the teams is how quick the QB gets the ball out. On 61% of Purdy's dropbacks, it took more than 2.5 seconds for the ball to leave his hand. For Columbi/Bowman, the ball was in their hand longer than 2.5 seconds on only 24% of dropbacks.

Both teams throw it to receivers or TEs lined up in the slot at about the same rate (36% of attempts for Tech, 31% for Iowa State).

JaQuan Bailey (Iowa State's pass rusher) has played a ton of snaps. He must be just an iron man. He also lines up on both sides, will be a serious problem for us in general, and a big reason why Tech will want to get the ball out quick.

Kene Nwangwu has returned 8 kicks this year for an average of 33 yards per return. Tech has only returned 2 kicks for an average of 15 yards per return. This could be something to watch.

 

[moores2]

I wonder how many of Tech's "passes" are screens behind the line of scrimmage which would decrease amount of time QB has the ball, increase forced missed tackles for WR (getting the ball in space), and increase percentage of yards after catch.

From what I have watched WR screens are a massive part of Tech's game plan each week, and I see that continue against Iowa State's drop eight coverage.

Also, running screens on first down would set up shorter yardages for first downs on run plays, or set the team up for second and long which would decrease run plays from happening.

 

[Dandy]

The only note we need: Matt Campbell is 4-0 vs Texas Tech, including covering the spread all four times.

 

[TechHoopsGuy]

I wonder how many of Tech's "passes" are screens behind the line of scrimmage which would decrease amount of time QB has the ball, increase forced missed tackles for WR (getting the ball in space), and increase percentage of yards after catch.

From what I have watched WR screens are a massive part of Tech's game plan each week, and I see that continue against Iowa State's drop eight coverage.

Also, running screens on first down would set up shorter yardages for first downs on run plays, or set the team up for second and long which would decrease run plays from happening.

I would venture to guess a vast, vast majority of Tech's passes are behind or within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage.

We will be playing the following players at LT/RT on Saturday:
A grad transfer from Wofford (flexbone)
A SO Juco Transfer
a True FR (who was out last week with an injury).

It's a serious problem for our team, and a big reason why everything has to get out of the QBs hands super fast.

 

[TechHoopsGuy]

The only note we need: Matt Campbell is 4-0 vs Texas Tech, including covering the spread all four times.

Ya... it's been a total blood bath.

Last year's game in LBK was arguably the worst anyone not named OU has beat Tech in ~25 games, even if the scoreboard didn't reflect it.

 

[Busch__Latte]

The only note we need: Matt Campbell is 4-0 vs Texas Tech, including covering the spread all four times.

3 of those years were under Kingbury.

 

[TechHoopsGuy]

3 of those years were under Kingbury.

Besides the last time we won, which was sort of a weird game because no one knew who Pat Mahomes was, Kingsbury's last game in Ames was about as good as Tech has played Iowa State.

Our defense played really well despite the 40-31 final score. I think we might've scored 1 or 2 defensive touchdowns. And our offense was responsible for at least 9 of ISU's points.

It's kind of sad that a 40-31 loss as a 6 point underdog is the *best* Tech's played against Iowa State in a decade, other than the time both teams were terrible and Tech was playing the greatest QB on earth before anyone really knew who he was.

 

[TheJackWePack5]

I’m expecting a tight game.

Tech will try to run the ball and essentially use the quick passing game as runs as well to negate ISU’s advantage up front.

They’ve got good players on the outside, but shouldn’t be anything significantly better than what TCU or OU trotted out there.

If Tech can manage to stop the run, ISU could struggle.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

3 of those years were under Kingbury.

It's crazy how successful Campbell was against a NFL caliber coach.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

Besides the last time we won, which was sort of a weird game because no one knew who Pat Mahomes was, Kingsbury's last game in Ames was about as good as Tech has played Iowa State.

Our defense played really well despite the 40-31 final score. I think we might've scored 1 or 2 defensive touchdowns. And our offense was responsible for at least 9 of ISU's points.

It's kind of sad that a 40-31 loss as a 6 point underdog is the *best* Tech's played against Iowa State in a decade, other than the time both teams were terrible and Tech was playing the greatest QB on earth before anyone really knew who he was.

and that was a bad Iowa State team.

 

[CycloneErik]

Besides the last time we won, which was sort of a weird game because no one knew who Pat Mahomes was, Kingsbury's last game in Ames was about as good as Tech has played Iowa State.

Our defense played really well despite the 40-31 final score. I think we might've scored 1 or 2 defensive touchdowns. And our offense was responsible for at least 9 of ISU's points.

It's kind of sad that a 40-31 loss as a 6 point underdog is the *best* Tech's played against Iowa State in a decade, other than the time both teams were terrible and Tech was playing the greatest QB on earth before anyone really knew who he was.

Rhoads vs. Tuberville was always fun for us, but it's sad that we both stuck ourselves with such terrible coaches there.
Should be much better coaching for both now.

 

[TechHoopsGuy]

I’m expecting a tight game.

Tech will try to run the ball and essentially use the quick passing game as runs as well to negate ISU’s advantage up front.

They’ve got good players on the outside, but shouldn’t be anything significantly better than what TCU or OU trotted out there.

If Tech can manage to stop the run, ISU could struggle.

I'm expecting a *close* game. But I think a distinction for close should be made because I expect it to track a lot like last year's game, which was not close at all in reality.

If Iowa State defends Tech the way they did last year, Tech will run the ball a ton and throw a ton of underneath stuff. We are liable to have 4-5 drives cross Iowa State's 30 yard line or so.

The problem will be converting those drives into TDs. And an ever bigger problem will be, even if we happen to capitalize on all those drives, will it even be enough.

 

[coolerifyoudid]

Our stats won't wow anyone this year yet. The turd of a first game sees to that. While we might not utilize out WRs as much, we had some pretty fantastic tight ends that will cause CBs fits.

In the end, we're not going into this game trying to outscore Tech in a shootout. Defense is where we will strive to separate ourselves.

 

[JM4CY]

Greetings CycyloneFanatic, here's a few random notes I put together and posted on a Tech board. Thought it might interest a few of you as well.

Iowa State has not thrown the ball very much this year. 90 drop backs by a QB, and they've been sacked (4) more than they've thrown a TD (2).

40% of Tech's drop backs resulted in touchdowns or a first down. 30% of Iowa State's drop backs resulted in touchdowns or first downs.

Iowa State has been 2x as likely this year to throw the ball more than 20 yards downfield (15% of attempts v. Tech's 8% of attempts). 50% of ISU's yards have come after the catch, while 63% of Tech's yards have come after the catch.

Tech's wide receivers have been pretty dynamic with the ball in their hands, being credited with 34 missed tackles to Iowa State's 10. On a per catch basis, though, it's not that much of a difference: Tech's wide receivers have avoided .33 tackles per catch, while Iowa State's have avoided .21 tackles per catch.

From a wide receiver standpoint, it's basically a one-man show for Iowa State: Xavier Hutchinson has 23 targets on the year, with the next highest WR having 7 targets. Tech has 6 WRs with 7 or more targets.

Breece Hall has carried the rushing load (66 carries). 36% of his carries have gone for a first down or TD. Sarodorick & Xavier White have also been pretty productive, with 45% of their carries going for a first down or TD. From a missed tackle per touch standpoint, Breece Hall might be the best in the conference, although Sarodorick isn't too far behind him.

Tech has really tackled well this year. Huge improvement from prior years. .10 missed tackles per snap for Tech's defense. Iowa State is also a really sound tackling team (.18 missed tackles per snap).

One major difference between the teams is how quick the QB gets the ball out. On 61% of Purdy's dropbacks, it took more than 2.5 seconds for the ball to leave his hand. For Columbi/Bowman, the ball was in their hand longer than 2.5 seconds on only 24% of dropbacks.

Both teams throw it to receivers or TEs lined up in the slot at about the same rate (36% of attempts for Tech, 31% for Iowa State).

JaQuan Bailey (Iowa State's pass rusher) has played a ton of snaps. He must be just an iron man. He also lines up on both sides, will be a serious problem for us in general, and a big reason why Tech will want to get the ball out quick.

Kene Nwangwu has returned 8 kicks this year for an average of 33 yards per return. Tech has only returned 2 kicks for an average of 15 yards per return. This could be something to watch.

I would venture to guess Tech hasn’t seen a defensive front 7 close to as good as as what they will have to deal with Saturday afternoon.

 

[TechHoopsGuy]

I would venture to guess Tech hasn’t seen a defensive front 7 close to as good as as what they will have to deal with Saturday afternoon.

Maybe not. Texas has some really outstanding pass rushers. I think Bailey & Ossai are probably 1A & 1B in the conference, although the Stills guys at WVU may have something to say about that.

We get the ball out so quick that a great pass rush doesn't tend to have the effect you normally would see against other offenses in this league.

Of course, playing that way also has a tendency to limit the ceiling for our offense.

To score TDs, we essentially have to have perfect 10+ play drives. It's very difficult to do and, in a lot of ways, plays right into ISU's hands.

 

[BCClone]

Maybe not. Texas has some really outstanding pass rushers. I think Bailey & Ossai are probably 1A & 1B in the conference, although the Stills guys at WVU may have something to say about that.

We get the ball out so quick that a great pass rush doesn't tend to have the effect you normally would see against other offenses in this league.

Of course, playing that way also has a tendency to limit the ceiling for our offense.

To score TDs, we essentially have to have perfect 10+ play drives. It's very difficult to do and, in a lot of ways, plays right into ISU's hands.

I think McDonald and Bailey are tied at number of sacks.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

Maybe not. Texas has some really outstanding pass rushers. I think Bailey & Ossai are probably 1A & 1B in the conference, although the Stills guys at WVU may have something to say about that.

We get the ball out so quick that a great pass rush doesn't tend to have the effect you normally would see against other offenses in this league.

Of course, playing that way also has a tendency to limit the ceiling for our offense.

To score TDs, we essentially have to have perfect 10+ play drives. It's very difficult to do and, in a lot of ways, plays right into ISU's hands.

IMO Iowa State Rushing 3 will really help the defense minimize the big play. Tech loves those quick throws so Heacock isn't going to blitz unless Tech shows a deep threat.

 

[ttuadvisor]

I think the only real hope Tech has is that Colombi(backup QB) starts and just clicks right away. Heacock's defense on the road in your first ever Big 12 start is a tough task to ask but I feel like I know how Bowman would perform against this defense because we've already seen it in 2018.

Bowman was 32/56 323 yds, 3 int's and 1 TD. He's just going to take the check downs and quick ins while falling right in line with what Heacock wants.

Colombi may be the exact same way or worse, but there is at least an unknown factor there and Colombi is much more willing to run than Bowman, which I think is probably one of the two to three keys to cracking that defense. Colombi isn't going to break 30 & 40 yard runs on anyone but just converting 3 or 4 3rd and shorts with your legs could make all the difference.

 

[khardbored]

Something, something, something ... our TE's ...

 

[khardbored]

Besides the last time we won, which was sort of a weird game because no one knew who Pat Mahomes was, Kingsbury's last game in Ames was about as good as Tech has played Iowa State.

Our defense played really well despite the 40-31 final score. I think we might've scored 1 or 2 defensive touchdowns. And our offense was responsible for at least 9 of ISU's points.

It's kind of sad that a 40-31 loss as a 6 point underdog is the *best* Tech's played against Iowa State in a decade, other than the time both teams were terrible and Tech was playing the greatest QB on earth before anyone really knew who he was.

The weird thing is that Mike Warren had 245 rushing yards in that game, and we still lost by 30+!!!