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Coronavirus Coronavirus: In-Iowa General Discussion (Not Limited)

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baller21 said:
No I want Iowa to do everything it can to keep the death toll as low as possible here.
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Acylum said:
So outlaw vehicles also while we’re at it?
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baller21 said:
Trolling a pandemic thread. Neat
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So keeping the death toll as low as possible doesn't apply across the board? Why is that? Because there are other factors that should come into consideration, except as it pertains to SARS-CoV-19? I'm honestly asking. If we never reach the point that someone is denied care under our current restrictions will you admit you were wrong? Why won't any of you answer what you expect to happen under a lockdown, who it should include,how long it should last, how do we phase it out, etc?
 
Acylum said:
So keeping the death toll as low as possible doesn't apply across the board? Why is that? Because there are other factors that should come into consideration, except as it pertains to SARS-CoV-19? I'm honestly asking. If we never reach the point that someone is denied care under our current restrictions will you admit you were wrong? Why won't any of you answer what you expect to happen under a lockdown, who it should include,how long it should last, how do we phase it out, etc?
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I'll answer it for you.. I would implement a stay at home order requiring all non-essential businesses to be shut down for two weeks. Essential businesses are located on the Department of Homeland Security website if you would like to find them. In this order you're not under "lockdown" as you're able to move around as needed for essentials / medical care if needed. Leisure activities outside are also fine unless you're in groups larger than 10. At the two week mark, we will be able to look at data we've gathered from the beginning of this and see how things have changed and make a decision one way or another whether to keep going with the further restrictions or to ease up.
 
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Statefan10 said:
I'll answer it for you.. I would implement a stay at home order requiring all non-essential businesses to be shut down for two weeks. Essential businesses are located on the Department of Homeland Security website if you would like to find them. In this order you're not under "lockdown" as you're able to move around as needed for essentials / medical care if needed. Leisure activities outside are also fine unless you're in groups larger than 10. At the two week mark, we will be able to look at data we've gathered from the beginning of this and see how things have changed and make a decision one way or another whether to keep going with the further restrictions or to ease up.
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And this saves lives how exactly? We are able to care for everyone affected under current restrictions. Are you saying we won't be able to maintain that if nothing changes? The number of people your shut down would effect compared to now is minimal. But let's say the number of infections doubles during the two weeks, then what? Let's say it drops to zero, then what?
 
Acylum said:
You do realize I could get in a vehicle and drive x amount of miles and interact with nobody correct? This metric is basically worthless.
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Exactly, if Iowa Shelters in place I am still taking my random drives. I don't see what it hurts as I'm in the car by myself not interacting with anyone.
 
Statefan10 said:
FWIW, Arizona just implemented a stay at home order (or whatever you want to officially call it). Now down to 6 states (technically 5 considering Nevada has it implemented it but for some reason isn't being counted). Nevada is calling it "Stay Home Nevada".

So it's Iowa, South Dakota, North Dakota, Nebraska, and Arkansas.
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Buddy who lives in AZ just texted me and said bicycle shops are considered essential. I asked him what changes will be starting tomorrow with the shelter in place starting and he said nothing.
 
Statefan10 said:
I'll answer it for you.. I would implement a stay at home order requiring all non-essential businesses to be shut down for two weeks. Essential businesses are located on the Department of Homeland Security website if you would like to find them. In this order you're not under "lockdown" as you're able to move around as needed for essentials / medical care if needed. Leisure activities outside are also fine unless you're in groups larger than 10. At the two week mark, we will be able to look at data we've gathered from the beginning of this and see how things have changed and make a decision one way or another whether to keep going with the further restrictions or to ease up.
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You really have at least three weeks and closer to four weeks before you know if new measures are really working based on the incubation length.
 
Scott34 said:
At this point I hope we do a shelter in place. That way we dont have to hear about that s*** every minute of the day.
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It will take them approximately 30 seconds to complain about something else.

The next piece will probably be what the state considers essential.
 
Acylum said:
No. The worst case scenario is the do nothing one. We’re past that. If the # of deaths is the same under the social distancing scenario and the lockdown scenario, which would you prefer?
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You said in the comment I was responding to that it was a fallacy that flattening the curve saved lives, which I found confusing. I think we all agree flattening the curve saves lives, as it's goal is to keep from overwhelming medical resources. Whether a formal shelter in place is more effective or necessary vs. what we are doing now is a reasonable debate.

From the macro level I can see the argument that what we are doing now might be almost as effective as a formal SIP. It sounds like on a personal level for some people they are being put at risk because they are perfectly capable of working from home but their company won't allow it.

Personally in a perfect world we would not need a formal SIP and everybody limits going out to rare and necessary trips. I don't think companies or people doing work in a physical location because it's the only way to do their job (even if there's a case it is a non-essential industry) are that big of a problem. I think we'd be OK even in that scenario. The problem is we have people having to or choosing to go into an office when they could work from home, and people are going out in public when not really necessary.
 
Acylum said:
And this saves lives how exactly? We are able to care for everyone affected under current restrictions. Are you saying we won't be able to maintain that if nothing changes? The number of people your shut down would effect compared to now is minimal. But let's say the number of infections doubles during the two weeks, then what? Let's say it drops to zero, then what?
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It seems like this is your main point. Maybe you haven't noticed the exponential growth of cases occurring in Iowa? Do you understand what that means?
 
isutrevman said:
You will definitely be immune for a while. Your body just killed off the virus, so if you were exposed to it a day later, for instance, your body would just kill it again. I think most experts would guess "immunity" would last for at least 6-12 months just based on other corona viruses. Obviously we wont know for a while, though. Immunity also doesn't go from 100% immune to 0% over night. Your antibodies gradually decrease over time, so maybe you get the virus again in 2 years, but have a less sever case if you still have some antibodies left, so your immune system isn't starting from scratch again.
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So, dumb question here. Is it likely that the virus continues to circulate for years, but the immunity levels are staggered so much among people that there will always be cases, but they'll be so spread out that it won't be a big deal? Or does a virus that is so easily transmitted result in such a high level of infection that you get enough herd immunity over a short period of time that the virus essentially runs out of effective hosts and dies out?
 
cyclonespiker33 said:
It seems like this is your main point. Maybe you haven't noticed the exponential growth of cases occurring in Iowa? Do you understand what that means?
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While the data is really noisy, I think if you look at confirmed cases, number of hospitalizations, and all the data that is available for Iowa and say we may now be below exponential growth. Again, too much noise in the data to be confident, but percent of growth was it's highest I believe on Friday. That's the first thing we are looking for - lowered percent increase of cases. We can handle increased absolute numbers of new cases for a time in most, if not all of Iowa for a while yet. Then obviously by the time we are at hospital capacity we need the absolute number of new cases to be less than those recovering and leaving the hospital.

Again, there's plenty to be alarmed about, but I think there is some reason for a little optimism. We really need to buckle down for these critical next few weeks and make sure everyone does what they can to minimize interaction with people.
 
Acylum said:
No. The worst case scenario is the do nothing one. We’re past that. If the # of deaths is the same under the social distancing scenario and the lockdown scenario, which would you prefer?
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What you are talking about is the law of diminishing returns. It probably does apply here, unless we stop the world entirely -- don't let anyone leave their house for 20 days for ANY reason including food.
 
AuH2O said:
While the data is really noisy, I think if you look at confirmed cases, number of hospitalizations, and all the data that is available for Iowa and say we may now be below exponential growth. Again, too much noise in the data to be confident, but percent of growth was it's highest I believe on Friday. That's the first thing we are looking for - lowered percent increase of cases. We can handle increased absolute numbers of new cases for a time in most, if not all of Iowa for a while yet. Then obviously by the time we are at hospital capacity we need the absolute number of new cases to be less than those recovering and leaving the hospital.

Again, there's plenty to be alarmed about, but I think there is some reason for a little optimism. We really need to buckle down for these critical next few weeks and make sure everyone does what they can to minimize interaction with people.
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I think a lot of that is that we aren't testing enough to see the true growth.
 
cyclonespiker33 said:
It seems like this is your main point. Maybe you haven't noticed the exponential growth of cases occurring in Iowa? Do you understand what that means?
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https://kwwl.com/2020/03/30/state-b...i14-46-7HC4m7xqEPMtwrL-I-G1Tr8KM-9xa00ducYJr4

This model is predicting Iowa will not overload it's capacity if we maintain the current restrictions through the end of April.

So we can't loosen up for awhile, but the people who act like we're sailing into the apocalypse blindfolded just because the governor won't say some magic words aren't getting it.
 
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AuH2O said:
So, dumb question here. Is it likely that the virus continues to circulate for years, but the immunity levels are staggered so much among people that there will always be cases, but they'll be so spread out that it won't be a big deal? Or does a virus that is so easily transmitted result in such a high level of infection that you get enough herd immunity over a short period of time that the virus essentially runs out of effective hosts and dies out?
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It’s a difficult question to answer. Do you think those in care centers or high risk health people will ever have the immune system built up? That is something that could cause the rate to go up because when things are finally relaxed, someone who just became a carrier walks in there and ravages a place like that.
 
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