Sagarin point spreads look different than Vegas ...

surly

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May 16, 2013
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reservation lake, mn
Vegas numbers in orange. Some very close or the same, some way different.


FRIDAY (9/13)
6:30PM (ACCN) - Ku (+18.5) (+18.5) @ Boston College
SATURDAY (9/14)
11AM (ESPN) - K-State (-2) (+8) @ Mississippi State
11AM (FS1) - NC State @ West Virginia (+10) (+7)
2:30PM (ESPN2) - Oklahoma State (-9.5) (-14.5) @ Tulsa
3PM (FS1) - Iowa @ Iowa State (+6.5) (+1)
6:30PM (BTN) - TCU (-15.5) (-1) @ Purdue
7PM (FOX) - Oklahoma (-23) (-21.5) @ UCLA
7PM (CBSSN) - Texas (-30) (-30.5) @ Rice
9:30PM (ESPN) - Texas Tech (-14.5) (-3) @ Arizona

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/
http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/
 
Tuesday's spread in red - likely close to gameday numbers. A lot of home dogs.

6:30PM (ACCN) - Ku (+18.5) (+18.5) @ Boston College (-21.5)
SATURDAY (9/14)
11AM (ESPN) - K-State (-2) (+8) @ Mississippi State (-7.5)
11AM (FS1) - NC State @ West Virginia (+10) (+7) (+7)
2:30PM (ESPN2) - Oklahoma State (-9.5) (-14.5) @ Tulsa (+14)
3PM (FS1) - Iowa @ Iowa State (+6.5) (+1) (+2.5)
6:30PM (BTN) - TCU (-15.5) (-1) @ Purdue (+2)
7PM (FOX) - Oklahoma (-23) (-21.5) @ UCLA (+23)
7PM (CBSSN) - Texas (-30) (-30.5) @ Rice (+31)
9:30PM (ESPN) - Texas Tech (-14.5) (-3) @ Arizona (+2)
 
You may not understand the difference between Sagarin and sports books.
 
That's what makes watching these numbers v. outcomes rather interesting. Sagarin this early v. betters this early.

I wouldn't call that interesting at all. Sagarin is basically worthless right now. Particularly for us when we have had a grand total of one game.
 
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Reactions: Tony Gunk and Doc
I wouldn't call that interesting at all. Sagarin is basically worthless right now. Particularly for us when we have had a grand total of one game.
How is it more useless than bettors who have seen one game? Isn't that what draws interest? Your game isn't wildly different anyway as opposed to K-State's.
 
So, the actual scores don't tell us much about Vegas v. Sagarin this past week, it's pretty close as to the best prognosticator.

Sagarin numbers in orange. Some very close or the same, some way different.


FRIDAY (9/13)
6:30PM (ACCN) - Ku (+18.5) (+18.5) @ Boston College tie
SATURDAY (9/14)
11AM (ESPN) - K-State (-2) (+8) @ Mississippi State Sagarin
11AM (FS1) - NC State @ West Virginia (+10) (+7) Vegas
2:30PM (ESPN2) - Oklahoma State (-9.5) (-14.5) @ Tulsa Vegas
3PM (FS1) - Iowa @ Iowa State (+6.5) (+1) Vegas spot-on!
6:30PM (BTN) - TCU (-15.5) (-1) @ Purdue Sagarin
7PM (FOX) - Oklahoma (-23) (-21.5) @ UCLA Sagarin
7PM (CBSSN) - Texas (-30) (-30.5) @ Rice Vegas
9:30PM (ESPN) - Texas Tech (-14.5) (-3) @ Arizona Vegas
 

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