As always, great stuff today from Jay.
https://cyclonefanatic.com/2019/08/jordan-strolls-through-the-schedule/
https://cyclonefanatic.com/2019/08/jordan-strolls-through-the-schedule/
JAY JORDAN: Analyzing every game on the 2019 schedule
- Thread starter ChrisMWilliams
- Start date
Full schedule considered, it isn't 4th, but ISU cannot lay an egg.
Jay Jordan stoking the fire of the endless "No, it's YOUR superbowl!" debate between ISU and Iowa fans.
Great read! Thanks for sharing this analysis...
I will respectfully disagree with UNI as the 4th most important game of the season. If ISU is a contender in the B12 and has raised the standard to the point where an 8 win season is considered "likely" (8 wins is the current over/under) then you have to beat the FCS teams you schedule period. This is not ISU of the past 40 years... they are legitimately talented and deep across the board. ISU beat UNI soundly 2 years ago. Winning this game by 20+ does not show that this season is "different".
I would actually argue that the same case made for UNI being the 4th most important game could be made for the iowa game:
"Iowa State has started slowly and tinkered a bit in the first four games in each season under Matt Campbell. This season should be different. The roster is established, the quarterback is in place, and an identity has been birthed."
Different is beating iowa. Beating UNI by 20 is great but does not demonstrate progress from prior years (see UNI game 2017)... I believe this team is better than the 2017 team and has the potential to be better than last year's team. This does not mean that the game against iowa is a must win, but if any non-conf game is the 4th most important, it has to be one where they can demonstrate something is different this year (imho).
Is ISU at the point where they have established who they are? Or are they still "tinkering" in the first 4 games? Beating UNI by 20+ doesn't answer these questions. Beating iowa would start to show that things are different this year.
Again - thanks for the great write up... fun to get your perspective on the season.
Go Cyclones!
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I think the winner of the CyHawk game could wind up with 10 wins. Therefore it does matter-- at least to me. One of the most fun games of the season and rivalries are part of what makes college football great.
We are going to be tough to beat with Purdy at QB and I believe we could beat anyone on our schedule as long as he (and the team in general) stays healthy.
I say we start the year 3-1 and finish 9-3.
We are going to be tough to beat with Purdy at QB and I believe we could beat anyone on our schedule as long as he (and the team in general) stays healthy.
I say we start the year 3-1 and finish 9-3.
My only comment about the Iowa section is that Iowa’s punter is not solid. He is statistically the worst in the country. Nate the Great literally pooch punts further.
Iowa has a grad transfer punter from ASU that averaged over 43 yards per punt last season. The punting game should be improved over last season.
I break the season into groups of games...
Wins: 3
UNI, ULM, Kansas
I would be very surprised if we lost any of these. I will pick 3-0 here.
Should Win: 3
@WVU, @KSU, @TTU
There is some risk with these.... but really should win all 3. I will pick 3-0 here too.
?: 4
iowa, @Baylor, TCU, OSU
Going 3-1 in this group would be huge. Take care of business in the 6 win/should win categories and you have a 9 win regular season or better. I will say we go 2-2 here.
Underdogs: 2
Texas, @OU
Finally, you have two games where we will likely be the underdog.... although, on ESPN we currently have a 60% chance to win against Texas. I will pick us to go 1-1 here.
Total of 9-3 overall.
Wins: 3
UNI, ULM, Kansas
I would be very surprised if we lost any of these. I will pick 3-0 here.
Should Win: 3
@WVU, @KSU, @TTU
There is some risk with these.... but really should win all 3. I will pick 3-0 here too.
?: 4
iowa, @Baylor, TCU, OSU
Going 3-1 in this group would be huge. Take care of business in the 6 win/should win categories and you have a 9 win regular season or better. I will say we go 2-2 here.
Underdogs: 2
Texas, @OU
Finally, you have two games where we will likely be the underdog.... although, on ESPN we currently have a 60% chance to win against Texas. I will pick us to go 1-1 here.
Total of 9-3 overall.
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That's almost exactly how I'd organize it and how I'd pick the W-Ls. ... That "Should Win" group could involve a stumble, that wouldn't surprise me. Or it's still 3-0 but we can't manage to beat UT -- (-I'll give us like 20% vs. OU -- quite higher than historic percentage, but still only 1 in 5).
Predicting W's and L's this early is obviously just a guessing game. Shoot, some Nebraska folks over here are thinking 11-1 for their team. But I think we have reason to be quite optimistic due to Brock Purdy. I just don't think we have ever had a quarterback like this before and that he will win us games that in the past would have been close losses.
As ISU fans, over the decades we have seen it so often where a receiver gets open only to have our QB throw the ball 3 yards beyond his reach down the middle, or throw the ball into the ground on a wide receiver screen. Purdy doesn't do those things. He puts the ball where his receiver should catch it. Think what his completion percentage would be if Butler had caught all those passes that hit him in the hands before he dropped it. I have the games saved on DVR and believe me, he was really good, but he dropped a lot of passes.
BP ended up as the 6th highest QB rated passer in the nation last year. I remember in the first game or two last year when he played I was thinking, "Wow, this kid is having a great game!" But no, he was not having one great game, that's just him, that's what his talent level really is.
Anyway, I think we have reason to expect an unusually enjoyable season this year. But, the football bounces funny ways and anything can happen, so this is just my version of the "guessing game."
As ISU fans, over the decades we have seen it so often where a receiver gets open only to have our QB throw the ball 3 yards beyond his reach down the middle, or throw the ball into the ground on a wide receiver screen. Purdy doesn't do those things. He puts the ball where his receiver should catch it. Think what his completion percentage would be if Butler had caught all those passes that hit him in the hands before he dropped it. I have the games saved on DVR and believe me, he was really good, but he dropped a lot of passes.
BP ended up as the 6th highest QB rated passer in the nation last year. I remember in the first game or two last year when he played I was thinking, "Wow, this kid is having a great game!" But no, he was not having one great game, that's just him, that's what his talent level really is.
Anyway, I think we have reason to expect an unusually enjoyable season this year. But, the football bounces funny ways and anything can happen, so this is just my version of the "guessing game."
Nice. My only real quibble is that I find it interesting that on this group, you think we’ll go 2-2 out of four home games. And the one on the road, Baylor gets us after playing three cream puffs.
I’d call those four games 3-1, just on the odds of us dropping one or another. Technically, I suppose I’d class all four as “likely to win” games.
I think we could go 3-1 in the "?" group... could go 0-2 in the "underdog" category or 2-1 in the "should win" category too...
Basically, I think we get about 2.5 wins from the "?", 0.75 wins from the "underdogs", and 2.75 wins from the "should win"... since I have to pick "whole" wins losses, I consolidated the losses in the "?" category.
I think the trick is that we likely will be favored in a lot of these.. (ESPN FPI analytics has us favored in 10 of 12 games). But most of these will be very close... really hard to pick against your team in a game most/many will pick them to win. The problem is there will likely be a lot of close games (I would say at least 8).. even if you are favored, winning 8 or 9 close games is really hard.
ESPN FPI gives us a 17.4% chance of winning... so, you see it similar to the analytics algorithm they use
1. Nebraska fans are stupid
2. Their schedule is complete garbage, so they might not be too far off.