THT Going into the Draft

[Clonefan32]

Sports Illustrated's Final Rankings are out:

https://www.si.com/nba/2019/nba-dra...48hPhXpEVoZS3pfHHOR2yZuJmyxGHC41qQW22HZ81vViY

Talen at 31
Shayok at 70
No sign of Lindell

 

[Sigmapolis]

Sports Illustrated's Final Rankings are out:

https://www.si.com/nba/2019/nba-dra...48hPhXpEVoZS3pfHHOR2yZuJmyxGHC41qQW22HZ81vViY

Talen at 31
Shayok at 70
No sign of Lindell

I would break a lamp if I were Talen if he went #31 instead of #30.

That difference could literally cost him millions of dollars and set him down a completely different career arc versus having a team invest a first-round pick/money into him.

If that happens, he was better off coming back to Ames for a featured role.

This sentence is kind of foreboding, too...

The quality of his play waned a little bit down the stretch, and it’s possible Horton-Tucker could benefit from another college season with a more defined offensive role.

He would have been the centerpiece of the offense next season if he were back.

If he ends up as a first-round pick in the end, however, then this will be fine. All of this will be forgotten. But if not, oh my, he rolled the dice and landed on a bad number.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I disagree. I think guys leaving with this much hype around them need to go. We just don't know what his ceiling is. Maybe he plays great next year, and parlays that into being a higher pick. Maybe he goes Melo Trimble, passes up a potential first round spot after his freshman year, and... never plays in the NBA, never gets drafted, etc. I'd rather be the #31 pick as an 18 year old than take the chance.

I do not think we really disagree.

You are saying it is worth the risk -- he probably goes <31, so he would be okay.

I am saying -- if he does not go in the first-round -- then you can defend the good process, but I am assuming a bad outcome, which there is some probability of happening.

If you knew he was going #31, would you still tell him to go pro?

You would break a lamp if you went #31+ and you were him, too.

The top of the second-round is very hit-or-miss on the quality of the franchises, too...

Brooklyn
Phoenix
Philly
Philly
Atlanta

...but that is usually the case throughout the draft order.

 

[Cydkar]

I would break a lamp if I were Talen if he went #31 instead of #30.

That difference could literally cost him millions of dollars and set him down a completely different career arc versus having a team invest a first-round pick/money into him.

If that happens, he was better off coming back to Ames for a featured role.

This sentence is kind of foreboding, too...

The quality of his play waned a little bit down the stretch, and it’s possible Horton-Tucker could benefit from another college season with a more defined offensive role.

He would have been the centerpiece of the offense next season if he were back.

If he ends up as a first-round pick in the end, however, then this will be fine. All of this will be forgotten. But if not, oh my, he rolled the dice and landed on a bad number.

I honestly won't care. I wish him the best but he's going to play pro ball and be in the NBA someday, barring injury. I can't shed a tear for that. I'm focused on the current players while wishing the best for former players. His choice and I won't fret over the results. He's gone no matter what...the milk has spilled.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I honestly won't care. I wish him the best but he's going to play pro ball and be in the NBA someday, barring injury. I can't shed a tear for that. I'm focused on the current players while wishing the best for former players. His choice and I won't fret over the results. He's gone no matter what...the milk has spilled.

I do not think our connection to players should end once they move on.

Plus, even if you only really care about the success of the current squad, seeing the program get players picked highly and have good NBA careers is good for our success.

Well-known NBA guys and successful "placements" are powerful recruiting tools.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

There almost needs to be an entrance requirement for these NBA Draft threads to see if posters understand that teams are looking long-term with picks, and not necessarily at right-now contributions.

We've had guys going through this for a few years now. It shouldn't be that hard to figure out.

I tried walking my father in law through this a few weeks ago... Talk about brutal!

 

[Cydkar]

I do not think our connection to players should end once they move on.

Plus, even if you only really care about the success of the current squad, seeing the program get players picked highly and have good NBA careers is good for our success.

Well-known NBA guys and successful "placements" are powerful recruiting tools.

I wish him well and hope he succeeds. I won't care if he goes 31 instead of 30 hardly at all. He will be in the NBA and earn his fate from there. I think you misunderstood...I want all of our former players to succeed at the highest level and pay scale.

 

[isutrevman]

Here's a few examples of why fans are having a hard time understanding why the NBA likes to draft young players based on their long-term potential and questioning whether THT is making the best decision long term.

Craig Brackins - Left early, was drafted and was out of the league in 2 years.
Royce Wihte - Left early, was drafted and basically never played in the league
Will Blalock - Left early, never to be heard from again
Curtis Stinson - Left early, had a long carrier in the D-league.

George Niang, Monte Morris, Deonte Burton, Abdel Nader - All stayed through their senior years, all look like they will stick in the NBA for multiple years.

 

[ricochet]

Here's a few examples of why fans are having a hard time understanding why the NBA likes to draft young players based on their long-term potential and questioning whether THT is making the best decision long term.

Craig Brackins - Left early, was drafted and was out of the league in 2 years.
Royce Wihte - Left early, was drafted and basically never played in the league
Will Blalock - Left early, never to be heard from again
Curtis Stinson - Left early, had a long carrier in the D-league.

George Niang, Monte Morris, Deonte Burton, Abdel Nader - All stayed through their senior years, all look like they will stick in the NBA for multiple years.

Not that it changes your argument, but Blalock was drafted (Pistons?) and I'm pretty sure played in a few games. I think he was the NBA version of the NFL's Mr. Irrelevant the year he was drafted.

 

[CycloneErik]

I tried walking my father in law through this a few weeks ago... Talk about brutal!

You gotta treat yourself after pain like that.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Not that it changes your argument, but Blalock was drafted (Pistons?) and I'm pretty sure played in a few games. I think he was the NBA version of the NFL's Mr. Irrelevant the year he was drafted.

More than any of us, but not exactly the most storied of NBA career...

 

[IASTATE07]

Here's a few examples of why fans are having a hard time understanding why the NBA likes to draft young players based on their long-term potential and questioning whether THT is making the best decision long term.

Craig Brackins - Left early, was drafted and was out of the league in 2 years.
Royce Wihte - Left early, was drafted and basically never played in the league
Will Blalock - Left early, never to be heard from again
Curtis Stinson - Left early, had a long carrier in the D-league.

George Niang, Monte Morris, Deonte Burton, Abdel Nader - All stayed through their senior years, all look like they will stick in the NBA for multiple years.

All of the guys that left early were 3-5 years older than THT.

 

[isutrevman]

All of the guys that left early were 3-5 years older than THT.

Yes. If they had left even earlier would they have "made it"?

 

[IASTATE07]

Yes. If they had left even earlier would they have "made it"?

All of 4 of those players had different circumstances. Royce wasn't a talent issue so Brackins would probably have been the only one had he left earlier had a longer career in the NBA.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Honestly? I'm very skeptical about how he'll be as a pro. In his case, yes. I don't think he'll be a hotter commodity than he is right now.

That is a reasonable position.

I can see him going #31+ next week, however.

I could also see him coming back and scoring 20+ PPG and playing more consistently (not that that can happen now) next year in Ames and really making a name for himself, eliminating any doubt he should be on the 20-30+ tier and should be in the lottery.

He is already really young. He will be young again next year.

Again, your assessment and preferred strategy is reasonable. It just has that downside of maybe not putting him in his peak draft position, but you are right that coming back would have had its own risks that he only becomes older and does not improve much.

I hope it will be a moot point and he ends up with a good franchise from 20-30.

Somebody like the Spurs would be ideal for him.

 

[mdk2isu]

That is a reasonable position.

I can see him going #31+ next week, however.

I could also see him coming back and scoring 20+ PPG and playing more consistently (not that that can happen now) next year in Ames and really making a name for himself, eliminating any doubt he should be on the 20-30+ tier and should be in the lottery.

He is already really young. He will be young again next year.

Again, your assessment and preferred strategy is reasonable. It just has that downside of maybe not putting him in his peak draft position, but you are right that coming back would have had its own risks that he only becomes older and does not improve much.

I hope it will be a moot point and he ends up with a good franchise from 20-30.

Somebody like the Spurs would be ideal for him.

The other aspect to look at from his perspective is this: staying in the draft this year gets him to the end of the rookie contract a year earlier than if he came back to ISU and went to the draft next year. The sooner you get to that 2nd contract, the sooner you make bigger money. Assuming you are worth a 2nd contract, which probably doesn't change in his case, regardless of if he came back or not.

 

[LLCoolCY]

The other aspect to look at from his perspective is this: staying in the draft this year gets him to the end of the rookie contract a year earlier than if he came back to ISU and went to the draft next year. The sooner you get to that 2nd contract, the sooner you make bigger money. Assuming you are worth a 2nd contract, which probably doesn't change in his case, regardless of if he came back or not.

In addition, I think many feel that if THT came back he definitely help his stock which as we've seen with Lindell that is far from certain.
Injury, lack of improvement, a year older, additional weakness nitpicked are all negative risks that can occur just as he could have shown improved defense and 3 pt shooting.
If any player is going to be a top 45 they are going to get guaranteed money (picks 31-45 usually get 2 years guaranteed) it is in their best interest to turn pro.

 

[Gunnerclone]

All of 4 of those players had different circumstances. Royce wasn't a talent issue so Brackins would probably have been the only one had he left earlier had a longer career in the NBA.

Brackins would probably be better off now than back then. The game has changed. But he was always kind of clunky like a robot Kevin Durant.

 

[ArgentCy]

The problem with this mess is the NBA contract setup. Such a steep potential drop for simply going #31 as opposed to #30. You ruin some kids lives because they may be told they are a 1st round pick but you slip just a little and the results are terrible. I think if a contract is not guaranteed then the player should have the option of going back to school after knowing that fact. Somewhat like baseball.

 

[srjclone]

All of the guys that left early were 3-5 years older than THT.

And I hate that every single ISU player has to be compared to an ISU player from years past. Not every situation is the same. And THTs is certainly something we have not had the chance to witness first hand before. People just cant seem to wrap their heads around a guy leaving early and having success after seeing the way he played down the stretch. I disagree with the sentiment, but I get it. THT is gone, and it was known he would need to prove himself through play and effort, to make a splash in the NBA his first year. For his sake, I am sure he is hoping he lands in the late 1st, but he isn't going to disappear into the ether if he goes early 2nd, either.