10-10 probably will.
Looking at it now, NW, Rutgers, Illinois, PSU, and probably at least one of Indy, Nebby, tOSU will be out.
I guess Iowa's collapse will start in March this year...
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Looking at it now, NW, Rutgers, Illinois, PSU, and probably at least one of Indy, Nebby, tOSU will be out.
It's hard to believe there'd be that much difference between 10-10 (especially if the 10 wins are all dogs)
The hoks should be sending flowers to the PAC -12 conference if they get in at 10-10 in a conference that is okay but truly mediocre when you look at the schedules. And probably the Big east.
It'll hurt the Hawks that Nebraska is done, Indiana is reeling and Ohio State appears to be trending down. 2 weeks ago, those were all tourney teams, now, maybe 1 of them gets in, 2 if they are lucky. There looked to be some really good opportunities for eye catching wins in Feb/March but if they don't knock off Michigan, they would be really comparable to last years Nebraska squad. There just isn't much chance to impress, the b1g tourney could be their only chance.
Right now we have no clue how the committee will use the new NET rankings. Many Iowa fans seem to think that being in the top 30 or so guarantees them spot in the field. But right now we just do not know.
If you look at Iowa's resume as of today, they have one very good win verses ISU, a couple of good wins against UCONN and Oregon, that are starting to look very average at best. Their SOS is at 68 as of today. In their five losses they were blown out in three of them and lost the other two by 5 and 6 points.
Iowa has work to do, to not end up like Nebraska last year, who I think finished tied for 3rd in the conference and went something like 13-5 and was left out.
If you look at Iowa's resume as of today, they have one very good win verses ISU, a couple of good wins against UCONN and Oregon, that are starting to look very average at best. Their SOS is at 68 as of today. In their five losses they were blown out in three of them and lost the other two by 5 and 6 points.
Iowa has work to do, to not end up like Nebraska last year, who I think finished tied for 3rd in the conference and went something like 13-5 and was left out.
Their non conference might not be spectacular but they still beat isu and didn’t lose any games, hardly any teams have that going for them. Some teams may have more quality wins but they also have some bad losses, 10-10 in the conference I would think easily gets them in.
Local media is about 20 years behind in understanding how all this works. They also don't keep track of non con opponents. They remember what the wins seemed like at the time and have no idea that UConn and Oregon aren't sniffing an at large bid. They couldn't fathom Neb not making it last year.
Nothings a safe bet but...
Hawks are currently
RPI-37
NET-27
KenPom--30
Sagarin--35
5-5 the rest of the way probably is a safe bet if we avoid the bad home loss.
Hawks are currently
RPI-37
NET-27
KenPom--30
Sagarin--35
5-5 the rest of the way probably is a safe bet if we avoid the bad home loss.
Comparing this year's Iowa and last year's Nebraska teams makes no sense. Not even close to comparable.
If Iowa goes 10-10 and doesn't beat Michigan, Maryland or @Wisc it will be interesting to see what happens. Having no road or neutral site wins vs other at large teams will hurt, but how much? Is having good wins more valuable than avoiding bad losses?
I somewhat agree. I think which 5 wins and losses is hyper-critical. It is also important to find out who get the auto-bids.
I am not comparing the two teams, just using it as an example of how local Iowa sports media isn't really up to speed on the NCAA selection process.
If I had to bet, I'd say 10-10 and 1-1 in the BTT is in and 0-1 in the BTT is out. Granted that's without knowing what the bubble looks like at that time and if any craziness occurs in the conf tourneys.
Looking at the remaining schedule and if the Hawks go 5-5 I think the critical element is obviously sweeping Rutgers. Can't lose to them....
You can mix the other games up at 3-5 and still do enough. Probably need to beat NW at home as well. Nothing else really takes a serious hit on the metrics as long as we win 5. Not comfortable at 4-6 down the stretch at all....might need to win 2 in the BTT depending on who the opponents are...
Probably need to see what the landscape looks like mid-February before more solid projections can be made.
I still think 10-10 without an additional bad loss gets them in. So they wouldn't want to lose their 1st game in the conference tourney because that would be a loss to a bad team. It won't be a win that moves the needle with seeding but it would get them by imo.
This will be a more clear discussion depending on what happens Friday. Iowa's got 2 opportunities left for big wins - vs Michigan and @Wisconsin. I think they have a much better shot at winning Friday than @ Wisconsin.
Iowa will need 1 win between Michigan, Maryland, and Wisconsin. If they go 0-3 there they literally won't have an in conference win over a team with a .500 or better record in conference. Is that bid worthy? Tallest midget yes, but I don't know if that will be enough for the committee without winning at least 2 games in Chicago.
It will be interesting to see what happens. It is really hard to read this Iowa team. It feels like the range of outcomes is very difficult to project game-game. I have watched two of their games and don't have a good feel for who they are.
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