First Coaches panel rankings

[cyclonetsunami]

125: Mackall - 25
133: Gomez - 7
141: Parker - 15
149: Degan - 11
157: Straw - UR
165: Schumacher - UR
174: Coleman - 25
184: Colbray - 16
197: Miklus - 6
285: Gremmel - 23

These rankings are used as a component for the qualifier allocation and 15% of the seeding criteria used at Nationals.

 

[knowlesjam]

125: Mackall - 25
133: Gomez - 7
141: Parker - 15
149: Degan - 11
157: Straw - UR
165: Schumacher - UR
174: Coleman - 25
184: Colbray - 16
197: Miklus - 6
285: Gremmel - 23

These rankings are used as a component for the qualifier allocation and 15% of the seeding criteria used at Nationals.

Novice question...what do these rankings mean if they were picking seeds for Nationals right now? Do we get 5 in...8 in...all?

TIA.

 

[GrappleCy]

Novice question...what do these rankings mean if they were picking seeds for Nationals right now? Do we get 5 in...8 in...all?

TIA.

They are one of the three legs for qualification, the others being win percent and RPI. They use a sliding scale for what exactly you need on all three to qualify but as a general rule if you're top 25 in at least 2 of the three you are 100% in, top 27 means you'll almost surely in, and anywhere from 28-33 is a big question mark. So far we don't know where people are at for RPI and while we could figure out their D-1 opponent win percentage it would take a lot of work.

But since it's early you can say anybody in the top 27 right now is on the right track to be a qualifier.

 

[BillyClone]

...as a general rule if you're top 25 in at least 2 of the three you are 100% in, top 27 means you'll almost surely in, and anywhere from 28-33 is a big question mark...

And by "you're in" it only means you've earned an allocation for your national qualifying tournament - not that you are actually qualified for the national tournament.

So if the wrestlers in the Big 12 at your weight class have combined to earn 4 allocations, you still have to finish in the top 4 at the Big 12 tournament in order to automatically qualify for nationals, Regardless if you actually earned one of the four allocations or not.

 

[GrappleCy]

And by "you're in" it only means you've earned an allocation for your national qualifying tournament - not that you are actually qualified for the national tournament.

So if the wrestlers in the Big 12 at your weight class have combined to earn 4 allocations, you still have to finish in the top 4 at the Big 12 tournament in order to automatically qualify for nationals, Regardless if you actually earned one of the four allocations or not.

You're right, I should have said "on track to earn on allocation".

Speaking of, 157 is looking to be a rough out for Straw. The Big XII has like 3 guys that are just on the outside looking in for allocations. If it were the other way around (them being just on the right side of the line) I'd feel good about him stealing a spot. Instead he'll have to fight through 3-4 other guys that are borderline qualifiers just to get to a match where he can try to get an upset to steal a spot.

Outside of matches against Straw, cheer hard for Shomers (Oklahoma State), Mossing (Air Force), and Thomas (Oklahoma). If they move up a couple of spots in the rankings the Big XII could end up with three allocations and that would help Straw out a lot.

 

[CyCloneRastlinG]

3 Jaydin Eierman Missouri MAC
6 Josh Alber UNI Big 12
9 Matt Findlay Utah Valley Big 12
10 Dom Demas Oklahoma Big 12
12 Kaid Brock Oklahoma St. Big 12
15 Ian Parker Iowa St. Big 12
This is what the rest of Ian's schedule looks like. He could really make a name for himself if he picks up some big wins. Tough weekend with Demas and Brock, both are winnable though.

 

[GrappleCy]

Oregon State's 157 pounder is ranked #28. That suddenly is a huge match for Straw. If he can go 4-1 between now and 2/20 I think he *might* sneak in. If he can go 5-0 you gotta assume he'd make the cut. Less than 4-1 and it becomes only about winning Big XIIs.

 

[CyCloneRastlinG]

Oregon State's 157 pounder is ranked #28. That suddenly is a huge match for Straw. If he can go 4-1 between now and 2/20 I think he *might* sneak in. If he can go 5-0 you gotta assume he'd make the cut. Less than 4-1 and it becomes only about winning Big XIIs.

33 Justin Thomas Oklahoma Big 12
23 Andrew Shomers Oklahoma St. Big 12
28 Hunter Willits Oregon St. Pac 12
17 Jarrett Jacques Missouri MAC

Those are his remaining wrestlers he will get a crack at before Big XII's. Add in 29 Alex Mossing Air Force Big 12 at conference.

 

[GrappleCy]

33 Justin Thomas Oklahoma Big 12
23 Andrew Shomers Oklahoma St. Big 12
28 Hunter Willits Oregon St. Pac 12
17 Jarrett Jacques Missouri MAC

Those are his remaining wrestlers he will get a crack at before Big XII's. Add in 29 Alex Mossing Air Force Big 12 at conference.

Missouri dual is after 2/20. Here's a screenshot I pulled from the pre-championships manual last week



Unless it is written really poorly (which it might be, there's ambiguous stuff in NCAA pubs all the time - for example they don't list when the coaches panel dates will be even though there's no reason for them not to) that says that the snapshot of the season they use for allocations happens on 2/20. So while the UNI and Missouri duals matter for seeding at Big XIIs and NCAAs, and for wild cards, they wouldn't matter for allocations.

Cheer as hard as you can for Mossing though, if he can move up a couple of spots in the rankings and earn the Big XII an allocation that'd be a big boost for Straw.

 

[CyCloneRastlinG]

Missouri dual is after 2/20. Here's a screenshot I pulled from the pre-championships manual last week



Unless it is written really poorly (which it might be, there's ambiguous stuff in NCAA pubs all the time - for example they don't list when the coaches panel dates will be even though there's no reason for them not to) that says that the snapshot of the season they use for allocations happens on 2/20. So while the UNI and Missouri duals matter for seeding at Big XIIs and NCAAs, and for wild cards, they wouldn't matter for allocations.

Cheer as hard as you can for Mossing though, if he can move up a couple of spots in the rankings and earn the Big XII an allocation that'd be a big boost for Straw.

Good information, thanks!

 

[GrappleCy]

Good information, thanks!

Here's a link to the whole pre-championship manual if you want to read it. The information on allocations is in section 2.4.

Edit: The reason I'm hedging a bit on the UNI/Missouri meets counting is that the manual says that "On Feb. 20, wrestlers in each weight class will be measured on the following: winning percentage (Win %), rating percentage index (RPI) and coaches’ ranking (CR)." and then says that allocations will be announced on February 28th. So it doesn't explicitly say that they won't be measured again after the last week of duals takes place. It's silent, but the implication is that the Feb 20th snapshot is what will be used.

 

[cyclonetsunami]

I did a rough estimate of ISU's DI winning percentage and ranked them in their weight class. These might not be exact, but they should be fairly close. ISU had a lot more non-DI matches than most schools. It looks like a 70% winning percentage is what to aim for to be top 25.

Weight (Winning %) - Rank
125 (0.667) - #23
133 (0.857) - #9
141 (0.857) - #9
149 (0.842) - #12
157 (0.555) - #50+
165 (0.461) - #50+
174 (0.765) - #15
184 (0.777) - #15
197 (0.800) - #9
285 (0.667) - #27

 

[buf87]

I did a rough estimate of ISU's DI winning percentage and ranked them in their weight class. These might not be exact, but they should be fairly close. ISU had a lot more non-DI matches than most schools. It looks like a 70% winning percentage is what to aim for to be top 25.

Weight (Winning %) - Rank
125 (0.667) - #23
133 (0.857) - #9
141 (0.857) - #9
149 (0.842) - #12
157 (0.555) - #50+
165 (0.461) - #50+
174 (0.765) - #15
184 (0.777) - #15
197 (0.800) - #9
285 (0.667) - #27

I just asked @Andgre if he can do that in Wrestlestat.