Their season is done, they are sweating it out at this point hoping other bubble teams choke and there arent any bid stealers. Dayton is definitely their ceiling but I could see them getting in still, the committee has done far crazier things in the past few years.
I still think saying that they have a 50/50 shot to get to Dayton and then win to get in the tourney is crazy but I guess we'll see