Big 12 Title Game Chances

[theshadow]

Are you forgetting that we now lose the tiebreaker to WV and Texas?

Are you forgetting that Texas can't tie ISU if ISU wins out?

 

[FerShizzle]

Are you forgetting that Texas can't tie ISU if ISU wins out?

I should have checked their score before posting.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

Texas has 3 conference losses. We win the next three and we have 2. So the only scenario where we win the next three and potentially miss the Championship is if WV wins their next three (including at OU). Then you have a multiway tie with ISU, WV, OU, and/or TCU each with 2 conference losses. In that very remote scenario it depends on a number of games for how the tiebreakers would ultimately play out. So yes not 100%, but well over 95% chance (based on the projections in the other thread on the topic) of making the Championship if we win the next three.

This is right. We actually win most of the multi-team tiebreakers if more than only ISU and WVU go 7-2. WVU winning out would require a win in Norman on Senior Day which would mean OU would be 7-2 at best. And if OU is 7-2 with a loss to WVU, it means they beat TCU so TCU would also be 7-2 at best.

It's possible that if we beat OSU and BU, we'd go into the last week needing to beat KSU and also needing OU to win at home over WVU to get in. But that's probably all of the help that we'd need, and it's only if WVU wins both of their next two games.

 

[shawn_200m]

It’s pretty simple at this point, the only scenario that we don’t make it by winning our is if TCU and WV both win out. In that case TCU goes as the only 1 loss team and WV wins a two way tie with us at 7-2. So basically cheer for OU the rest of the way.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

It’s pretty simple at this point, the only scenario that we don’t make it by winning our is if TCU and WV both win out. In that case TCU goes as the only 1 loss team and WV wins a two way tie with us at 7-2. So basically cheer for OU the rest of the way.

Cheering for OU the rest of the way is one option to get a OU-ISU CCG. But there is still a way to get a WVU-ISU CCG which would be my preference.

Here is one of the easiest ways it would happen, short of OU and TCU totally collapsing:
Oklahoma beats TCU next week in Norman, then TCU wins their last two. TCU goes 7-2.
Oklahoma loses to WVU in their last game and finishes 7-2.
ISU and WVU both win out to go 7-2. (ISU winning out of course means OSU would be 6-3 at best.)

There would be a four-way tie atop the conference at 7-2. The first tiebreaker is a mini round-robin among the tied teams. The records would be: ISU 2-1, WVU 2-1, OU 1-2, TCU 1-2.

WVU and ISU would advance to the title game.

 

[heitclone]

We only make it if WV loses right? Seems there are 3 teams that "control their own destiny", OU, TCU and WV. If TCU and WV win out, they are in regardless of what we do right? We control nothing until WV loses again.

 

[cyclonepower]

We only make it if WV loses right? Seems there are 3 teams that "control their own destiny", OU, TCU and WV. If TCU and WV win out, they are in regardless of what we do right? We control nothing until WV loses again.

If Tcu loses to OU we are good even if WV wins out

 

[norcalcy]

Cheering for OU the rest of the way is one option to get a OU-ISU CCG. But there is still a way to get a WVU-ISU CCG which would be my preference.

I'd take that in a heartbeat. It would be just like the 2016/17 basketball season. Frustrating in season game(s) but sweet redemption in the post season.