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Cyclone Football's computer performance/projections

Cyrok

Cyrok

Active Member
Oct 14, 2009
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DSM
ESPN has an insider article written by Brian Fremeau, Football Outsiders, which uses drive efficiency data to evaluate and make predictions. For 2013 he has ISU 9th with a record of 3-9 and zero chance of winning the BigXII. He cites youth and thinks we could lose both the Iowa and Tulsa games.

2013 Projections
1 Texas
2 Oklahoma St
3 Oklahoma
4 TCU
9 ISU

At his website, BCF Toys - PFEI Five-Year Program Ratings, he has 5-year program ratings for all 124 FBS schools. ISU comes in at 61. The BigXII does fairly well with half of the conference in the top 20 (Oklahoma is number 2) and only Kansas bringing us down at 100.

I think we have come to expect ISU to be projected with a 2 or 3 win season the last 4 years AND we have come to expect ISU to beat those projections. I'm happy with the product Coach Rhoads, Jamie Pollard, and staff have put out on the field - it has been exciting and fun to cheer for. The 61st ranking out of 124 teams by Fremeau seems about right and the trend is upwards (ISU finished 39th in last season's 1-year ranking). My family and I went to the Spring Game this year for the first time and had a blast. I hope we get to another bowl game this year and win it. I would love to see us beat more than 3 conference teams for the first time. Both are possible! It's a fun time to be a Cyclone!
 
I usually expect us to beat the predictions but we have a very difficult schedule. I think this could be a low for the Coach Rhoads era.

However, I wouldn't be surprised if we beat expectations. I think I'll go into the season with low expectations and hopes for high results....
 
Dang... When you think of there only being 64 teams in the power 5 conferences, along with teams like Notre dame, byu, and Boise state, that puts us pretty darn low towards the bottom of teams
 
It is difficult to predict this year because it is filled with so many key unknowns. As a Fanatic, I choose to take that as the possibility for positive surprises. I don't expect an objective source to make the same predictions, but I like the taste of Kool-aid.
 
Cyrok said:
ESPN has an insider article written by Brian Fremeau, Football Outsiders, which uses drive efficiency data to evaluate and make predictions. For 2013 he has ISU 9th with a record of 3-9 and zero chance of winning the BigXII. He cites youth and thinks we could lose both the Iowa and Tulsa games.

2013 Projections
1 Texas
2 Oklahoma St
3 Oklahoma
4 TCU
9 ISU
Click to expand...

I looked at the website briefly but didn't see the past projections (Rhoads era) for ISU. I think it's safe to say that we'll be picked to finish with no more than three wins until the end of time, regardless of circumstances. By everyone.
 
Predictions are just best guesses anyways, but I don't understand how you can make predictions for the coming year based on what happend the past 5. You are basically talking about a whole new group of starters because you've gone through 2 classes worth of players, let alone any coaching changes that might help improve things.
 
This is going to be a tough schedule. The fact Jamie wasn't able to get us out of going to Tulsa (I say that like I know he tried) hurts. We could use 7 home games this year. But you know what Rhoads has always preformed well, no reason to think that won't be the same this year.
 
Last 5 years rankings

2008 83
2009 79
2010 85
2011 78
2012 61

I would say we are trending in the right direction. Really need to start having better performances against OU, and UT. Not saying we have to win but just be in the games more.
 
boone7247 said:
This is going to be a tough schedule. The fact Jamie wasn't able to get us out of going to Tulsa (I say that like I know he tried) hurts. We could use 7 home games this year. But you know what Rhoads has always preformed well, no reason to think that won't be the same this year.
Click to expand...

We will beat Tulsa handily. Book it.
 
I saw a comment on Ubben's blog yesterday about article. Someone said something about the prediction formula not accounting for Mack Brown.:twitcy:
 
boone7247 said:
Last 5 years rankings

2008 83
2009 79
2010 85
2011 78
2012 61

I would say we are trending in the right direction. Really need to start having better performances against OU, and UT. Not saying we have to win but just be in the games more.
Click to expand...

humm let me guess when ISU is in the 80's 1 win, 70's 2 wins, 60's 3 wins.
 
Cyrok said:
ESPN has an insider article written by Brian Fremeau, Football Outsiders, which uses drive efficiency data to evaluate and make predictions. For 2013 he has ISU 9th with a record of 3-9 and zero chance of winning the BigXII. He cites youth and thinks we could lose both the Iowa and Tulsa games.

2013 Projections
1 Texas
2 Oklahoma St
3 Oklahoma
4 TCU
9 ISU

At his website, BCF Toys - PFEI Five-Year Program Ratings, he has 5-year program ratings for all 124 FBS schools. ISU comes in at 61. The BigXII does fairly well with half of the conference in the top 20 (Oklahoma is number 2) and only Kansas bringing us down at 100.

I think we have come to expect ISU to be projected with a 2 or 3 win season the last 4 years AND we have come to expect ISU to beat those projections. I'm happy with the product Coach Rhoads, Jamie Pollard, and staff have put out on the field - it has been exciting and fun to cheer for. The 61st ranking out of 124 teams by Fremeau seems about right and the trend is upwards (ISU finished 39th in last season's 1-year ranking). My family and I went to the Spring Game this year for the first time and had a blast. I hope we get to another bowl game this year and win it. I would love to see us beat more than 3 conference teams for the first time. Both are possible! It's a fun time to be a Cyclone!
Click to expand...

Needs to read...

View attachment 19880
 
I would not put much stock in Football Outsiders preseason predictions. I have a math degree and actually find their statistical stuff interesting, but their predictions for ISU the last 3 years have been wildly inaccurate.

Each year they give each team a percent chance of winning a range of games. In 2010 the mean number of wins for ISU was 2.8 and they only gave ISU a 6% chance of winning 5 games or more, which they did.

In 2011 the projected mean number of wins for ISU was 2.7, and they only gave us a 1% chance of winning 6 games, which they did.

In 2012 the projected mean number of wins for ISU was once again 2.7, and once again we only got a 1% chance of winning 6 games, which ISU did again.
 
We will never be a power house in football, we are just cursed. Always at the bottom of the barrel.
 
scyclonekid said:
We will never be a power house in football, we are just cursed. Always at the bottom of the barrel.
Click to expand...

I've accepted the fact ISU will never be a powerhouse in football, and I would be happy with a bowl game on a consistent basis with 6-7 wins and be thrilled with an occasional 8-10 win season. I don't see the Cyclones ever really contending for the conference championship.
 
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