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***Official 2013 Bracketology Thread***

It feels so soft I just want to rest my pretty little head on it. March 7th, 2013 Bubble Tracker

America East - Vermont (1) - Next game vs. Albany for the Championship

A-10 - VCU, St. Louis, Butler, Temple (4)
Bubble - La Salle (RPI 40, BPI 53, SOS 85) (1)
Fringe - Xavier (RPI 77, BPI 71, SOS 30), Massachusetts (RPI 57, BPI 85, SOS 66) (2) - Great win by Temple. That gets them into the NCAA Tournament.

ACC - Miami, Duke, North Carolina, North Carolina State (4)
Bubble - Virginia (RPI 72, BPI 41, SOS 104) (1) - Virginia gets the win and effectively knocks out Maryland.

Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast (1)

Big 12 - Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State (3)
Bubble - Oklahoma (RPI 33, BPI 44, SOS 21), Iowa State (RPI 46, BPI 35, SOS 57) (2)
Fringe - Baylor (RPI 62, BPI 47, SOS 46) (1) - ISU got the two wins it needed. Oklahoma comes back to the bubble with that inexplicable loss to TCU. Baylor stays fringe with that insane win over Kansas. Baylor has a ton of work to do. the winner of Oklahoma vs. ISU becomes a solid lock for the NCAA Tourney.

Big East - Louisville, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Cincinnati (7)
Bubble: Villanova (RPI 52, BPI 60, SOS 26) (1)
Fringe: Providence (RPI 85, BPI 61, SOS 8) (1) - Missed chance for Providence. Could not get the win over UCONN. Will now need to get to the Big East championship game.

Big Sky - Montana (1) - Must win Auto Bid.

Big South - Liberty (1)

Big Ten - Indiana, Michigan, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota (7)
Bubble - None
Fringe - Iowa (RPI 71, BPI 49, SOS 58) (1) - Got the win over Nebraska, and need to go deep in the BIg Ten tourney. The non-con schedule is killing this team.

Big West - Long Beach State (1) - Auto bid or bust.

CAA - Northeastern (1) - Next game versus James Madison for the Championship. Must win Auto Bid

CUSA - Memphis (1) - Regular Season Champion. Next game versus winner of Tulane and Marshall.

Horizon - Valparaiso (1) - Next game versus Wight State for the Championship.

Ivy - Harvard - Clinched the Ivy.

MAAC - Iona (1) - Next game vs. Manhattan for the championship. Must win Auto bid

MAC - Ohio (1) - The Abreu arrest and subsequent collapse of Akron has shattered any hope of an at large dream. This has become auto bid or bust. Ohio look to be the favorite in this conference if Abreu does not come back.

MEAC - Norfolk State (1) - Next game vs. Bethune Cookman or Coppin State. Must win Auto Bid

Missouri Valley - Creighton, Wichita State (2) - Creighton the MVC Champion.

Mountain West - New Mexico, UNLV, Colorado State, SDSU (4)
Bubble: Boise State (RPI 38, BPI 45, SOS 83) (1)
Fringe - Air Force (RPI 69, BPI 86, SOS 87) (1) - Big win by Boise State over SDSU. They are looking very solid for the tournament. Air Force got a great win over New Mexico, but still need to make a run in the MWC tournament. This team has the potential to do so.

Northeast - LIU Brooklyn (1) - Next game versus Mount Saint Mary's for the Championship. Must win Auto Bid. League leader Robert MOrris eliminated.

Ohio Valley - Belmont - OVC Champion

Pac-12 - Oregon, UCLA, California, Arizona (4)
Bubble - Colorado (RPI 37, BPI 37, SOS 5) (1)
Fringe - ASU (RPI 92, BPI 67, SOS 75) (1) - Bad loss by Colorado to Oregon State. Still in ok position, but need one more win. ASU needs to win the Pac -12 tournament.

Patriot - Bucknell (1) - Fringe At Large candidate. Would be well served to win their tournament. Next game versus Lafayette for the Patriot League Championship. (RPI 51, BPI 58, SOS 169)

SEC - Florida, Missouri (2)
Bubble: Kentucky(RPI 50, BPI 46, SOS 39), Tennessee(RPI 55, BPI 59, SOS 27), Ole Miss(RPI 56, BPI 40, SOS 103) (3)
Fringe: Alabama (RPI 61, BPI 66, SOS 49), Arkansas (RPI 80, BPI 74, SOS 60) (2) - All bubble teams won on Saturday. Kentucky and Tennessee really helped themselves. The key for everyone is no bad losses. So, don't lose in the first round of the SEC tournament.

Southern - Davidson (1) - Next game versus College of Charleston for the Championship. Must win Auto Bid

Southland - Stephen F. Austin (1) - Must Win Auto Bid

SWAC - Southern (1) - Next game versus Alabama A&M or Grambling State. Must win Auto Bid

Summit League - South Dakota State (1) - Next game verus IPFW in the semifinals. Must win Auto Bid

Sun Belt - Western Kentucky (1) - Currently beating Arkansas State.
Bubble - Middle Tennessee (1) - Just like last year, MTSU loses in their conference tournament. Will need a lot of help to get into the tournament. (RPI 25, BPI 38, SOS 133)

WCC - Gonzaga (1)
Bubble - Saint Mary's (RPI 30, BPI 33, SOS 112)(1) - Escaped San Diego and now faces Gonzaga for the WCC Crown.

WAC - Denver (1) - Louisiana Tech has collapsed and the University of Denver is the team to beat.

Locks: 59
Bubble and Fringe: 21
With 59 locks, that leaves only 9 spots for 21 Bubble and Fringe teams.
 
Hoks put themselves in a tough spot. While they may be at this moment one of the best 68 teams in the country. Under the formula they killed themselves with the non conference slate.
 
I know I am not an expert, but even if ISU does lose handily to Oklahoma on Thursday, I can't see us falling past one of those First Four games in Dayton. I really do feel like that's the worst-case scenario here.
 
kucyclone said:
Andy Glockner ‏@AndyGlockner Man, Oklahoma-Iowa State in the early quarterfinal on Thursday? That's a big bubble game. Loser may get quite nervous.

(Glockner does the Bubble Watch and bracket for SI.com. He doesn't suck like Jerry Palm.)
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I don't see Baylor getting in over ISU or OU (unless they win the tourney). I don't think the Big12 gets only 4 teams in or do they get 6 (unless Baylor wins the tourney).

Since ISU and OU swept Baylor......there is no way Baylor should leap frog either.
 
The fact that MTSU is only two teams out from the last 4 in, they have a decent chance to get into the tournament. They just need help from hapless bubble teams.
 
Mumbai1986 said:
The fact that MTSU is only two teams out from the last 4 in, they have a decent chance to get into the tournament. They just need help from hapless bubble teams.
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With the reg season over, teams are more likely to be improving their stock than hurting it.
 
erikbj said:
I don't see Baylor getting in over ISU or OU (unless they win the tourney). I don't think the Big12 gets only 4 teams in or do they get 6 (unless Baylor wins the tourney).

Since ISU and OU swept Baylor......there is no way Baylor should leap frog either.
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Yes, it isn't like that would be a bad loss for either team. No idea why a loss would hurt OU or ISU.
 
A lot of people said that if we beat Okie State we would be in the tourney for sure, we beat them and then beat WVU and now we are a bubble team? We were a bubble team after beating Okie State but going into that game the magic number was always 2 wins to be a lock. They can say whatever we want but we are in even if we lose by 30 Thursday
 
It's getting rather annoying to keep being told one more gets us in. First it was in with a win over OSU, then it was in with a win at WVU, now it's in with a win over ou.
 
CyTwins said:
A lot of people said that if we beat Okie State we would be in the tourney for sure, we beat them and then beat WVU and now we are a bubble team? We were a bubble team after beating Okie State but going into that game the magic number was always 2 wins to be a lock. They can say whatever we want but we are in even if we lose by 30 Thursday
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I sure hope you're right, but when you're projected for the play in game or 1 team away from the play in game, I don't feel quite as confident.
 
cyman05 said:
I sure hope you're right, but when you're projected for the play in game or 1 team away from the play in game, I don't feel quite as confident.
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That's only in a handful of the many brackets. One of my favorites is the Bracket Matrix, which combines all of the major bracketology predictions into one average.

It has Iowa State in as the 6th-to-last at-large team, and 2nd-to-last with a bye. That's why I'm saying that ISU is in the field even with a loss on Thursday, but could fall into a First Four matchup.

Fun fact about the Bracket Matrix... it has Iowa in the First Four Out grouping.
 
Final42b said:
It's getting rather annoying to keep being told one more gets us in. First it was in with a win over OSU, then it was in with a win at WVU, now it's in with a win over ou.
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Welcome to the bubble.

Its been a long time, maybe never, since ISU was truly on the bubble. 2005 was probably the closest, as they needed to win 1 in the Big 12 tournament to secure their bid. Either way, winning on Thursday would be great.
 
Quite frankly I don't care what any of these "experts" are saying at this point. I will start caring what they are saying about ISU after the Cyclones beat Oklahoma and then send the Jayhawks packing down in KC.
 
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