***Official 2013 Bracketology Thread***

[NorthCyd]

According the the bracket matrix on the bracket project, we are still in as a 12 seed even if you only factor in those brackets submitted after March 2nd. IMO win this Wednesday and our ticket is punched. The bubble is WEAK this year. Hell, the whole field is weak this year.

 

[Cy$]

The RPI is Not the Real Predictive Indicator | The Harvard College Sports Analysis Collective
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where's QuickQuestion at to say you're full of ********?

Anyways, that's spot on. RPI is heavily used but not accurate.

 

[awd4cy]

Lunardi has us back on the last 4 in. Really need the win on wednesday.

 

[Doc]

According the the bracket matrix on the bracket project, we are still in as a 12 seed even if you only factor in those brackets submitted after March 2nd. IMO win this Wednesday and our ticket is punched. The bubble is WEAK this year. Hell, the whole field is weak this year.

Yeah, it's weak (really it's probably just the new normal with 68 teams), but the at-large field can get stronger in a hurry if 2-3 mid-major teams that are out win conference tournament championships or a couple low bubble teams add some quality wins.

 

[TurbulentEddie]

where's QuickQuestion at to say you're full of ********?

Anyways, that's spot on. RPI is heavily used but not accurate.

Really, Sagarin ELO_SCORE/CHESS is a better measure of resumes and KenPom or Sagarin Predictor are better for SOS comparisons since they actually measure the strength of teams (not just W/L record). I know most on the committee (and many in media) like RPI for sake of "organize resumes", but it's not even a good resume metric. See how Oklahoma and New Mexico have gamed the system this year, for example.

On the plus side, the chairman of the committee (forgetting name at the moment) said he does look at Sagarin and KenPom regularly.

 

[cyclones500]

Baylor doing its darnedest to play its way out ...

 

[Clones21]

Baylor doing its darnedest to play its way out ...

They are done. I don't even think beating KU can get them in.

 

[Cydwinder]

They are done. I don't even think beating KU can get them in.

Baylor pretty much has to make the big 12 final to get back onto the bubble at this point. Even that might not be enough though.

 

[Clones21]

Baylor pretty much has to make the big 12 final to get back onto the bubble at this point. Even that might not be enough though.

Yup. Their record is 17-12. Thats not good.

 

[Wesley]

Yup. Their record is 17-12. Thats not good.

Even the Hoks have 18 wins with two to play.

 

[Madcyentist]

Jon Rothstein ‏@JonRothstein Big 12 will be a 5 bid league. Iowa State should be fine as long as they split final two games. Cyclones will add sizzle to the field of 68.

 

[Clones21]

Jon Rothstein ‏@JonRothstein Big 12 will be a 5 bid league. Iowa State should be fine as long as they split final two games. Cyclones will add sizzle to the field of 68.

I like hearing that. So if we lose to Okie State and just beat WVU, people still think we'll be in?

 

[zwclones51]

2006... LOL!



[video=youtube;5ktjk9HsnMA]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ktjk9HsnMA[/video]

Thats great. We were watching that in my history class junior year of high school. Our teacher/coach is huge hawk fan/graduate. Very superstitious and hyper. Once he hit the shot he jumped out of his seat, walked out of the classroom slamming the door behind him while all ISU fans are dying of laughter.

 

[cyclones500]

I like hearing that. So if we lose to Okie State and just beat WVU, people still think we'll be in?

Should be in decent shape, either way — but I think it's a better situation to beat OSU and fall at WVa at this point — lack of high-end wins probably trumps an additional sub-100 road loss.

 

[Mumbai1986]

Well, it's the start of conference tournaments. These are the schools we need to root for.

Akron - MAC
Belmont - OVC
Middle Tennessee - Sun Belt
Louisiana Tech - WAC
Memphis - CUSA
Wichita State and Creighton - MVC
Gonzaga and Saint Mary's - WCC

All these teams could be at large picks if they lose in their conference tournament.

Tournaments that are wide open in my opinion that could cause trouble for ISU
A-10 - Any team has a chance here. Teams like Xavier, UMASS, and early season favorite St. Joseph's can go on a run.
MWC - Any team has a chance to win this tournament. Top to bottom really tough league.
Pac-12 - USC, ASU, or Washington could go on a run.
SEC - Ole Miss, Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama or Arkansas all have a chance to get hot.

Currently these teams are out or barely on the bubble. Any run by them could be bad news for ISU.

 

[erikbj]

Well, it's the start of conference tournaments. These are the schools we need to root for.

Akron - MAC
Belmont - OVC
Middle Tennessee - Sun Belt
Louisiana Tech - WAC
Memphis - CUSA
Wichita State and Creighton - MVC
Gonzaga and Saint Mary's - WCC

All these teams could be at large picks if they lose in their conference tournament.

Tournaments that are wide open in my opinion that could cause trouble for ISU
A-10 - Any team has a chance here. Teams like Xavier, UMASS, and early season favorite St. Joseph's can go on a run.
MWC - Any team has a chance to win this tournament. Top to bottom really tough league.
Pac-12 - USC, ASU, or Washington could go on a run.
SEC - Ole Miss, Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama or Arkansas all have a chance to get hot.

Currently these teams are out or barely on the bubble. Any run by them could be bad news for ISU.

ISU controls their own destiny........if they win Wednesday they are no longer on the bubble. If ISU loses Wed and Saturday, then they don't deserve to be in the tourney.

 

[Cydkar]

Jon Rothstein ‏@JonRothstein Big 12 will be a 5 bid league. Iowa State should be fine as long as they split final two games. Cyclones will add sizzle to the field of 68.

If he was on the committee that would be cool. We can't split and then lose 1st game of B12T. Certainly not if that win is WVU.

 

[oldman]

Let's just win the Big 12 tourney and be done with it.

 

[Mumbai1986]

ISU controls their own destiny........if they win Wednesday they are no longer on the bubble. If ISU loses Wed and Saturday, then they don't deserve to be in the tourney.

We should also win one game in the Big 12 tourney to be completely safe. I am more fearful of the major conference teams than I am of the mid majors.

 

[CyFan61]

If ISU wins Wednesday, even if we lose the next two after it, I feel pretty good about getting in although I'll be somewhat nervous.

If ISU loses Wednesday, but beats WVU, and goes on to lose the first round of the tourney, I'll be sweating bullets on Selection Sunday.

If ISU loses out, there's nothing to hope for besides NIT.

If ISU wins two or more, there's nothing to worry about besides seeding in the NCAA's.