MESS named OC
- Thread starter Mycology
- Start date
Considering your sig, I expected this comment would come from you. :wink:
TV is horrible because it doesn't show enough of the field. It might show all 22 players before the snap, but at the snap you get to see the QB and maybe 10 yards downfield, and you can't see all the way to the perimter. Most receivers leave the screen quickly, and once the ball is thrown the view zooms in on the targeted receiver. You can't see what the other players are doing.
And you have yet to show that we haven't actually run many deep routes. We can find out how many pass plays there were in the season, or any particular game, or any particular drive. That information is easily accessible on Cyclones.com. For the season, or for a game, or even for a particular drive, how many times did we include a deep route on a pass play? If I could find that information I would certainly post it but I can't find it. If you can find it (or maybe you have it yourself since, you know, you watched the games on TV including the replays), send it to me and I'll crunch the numbers. I have no reason to trust your information either. We'll agree to disagree, and I'm fine with that.
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If Rhoads decided Herman should not have coached in the Pinstripe Bowl, do you all think Messingham would have been calling the plays?
The goal for every offense should be to take up as much space as possible and the goal for every defense should be to restrict space as best they can.
Barnett and Gary for sure. I want to say Lenz and there were a few others. I think Shontrell. I also don't follow everyone so I'm sure others too.
http://i1095.photobucket.com/albums/i468/isuagronomist/WRStats.jpg
Here is the condensed WR stat sheet I posted earlier in the "More on the Passing Game" thread (Thanks again ISUAgronomist for getting the formatting down for me).
James White caught 75% of his passes for an average of 7.9 yards.
Jarvis West caught 66% of his passes for an average of 5.9 yards.
Kurt Hammerschmidt caught 67% of his passes for an average of 9.7 yards.
Branderhorst caught 62% of his passes for an average of 5.5 yards.
Shontrelle Johnson caught 100% of his passes for an average of 8.0 yards.
Jeff Woody caught 80% of his passes for and average of 7.5 yards.
These guys caught the ball consistently, while close to the line of scrimmage where it is so "congested." We posed enough of a deep threat that these guys were all able to catch the ball underneath effectively. Reynolds, Lenz, Horne, Young, Gary and Darks all averaged >=10 yards per catch.
Physically, Reynolds was our best downfield threat. However, he caught less than half of the passes we threw to him (and we threw to him 22% of the time - a lot considering we played 7 real receivers, in addition to throwing to the RB/TE). We were not good at throwing deep passes, which necessitated our throwing shallower routes. And when we threw shallow to the guys listed above, we did alright. Not good enough to overcome the penalties and turnovers, but alright. Having Young, Gary and maybe Lenz as our main "deep ball receivers" next year will open up the short stuff just because they can catch, even without changing the scheme.
Can't remember who posted the data but it includes all regular season games (no bowl game).
I posted the stats originally in thread titled "More on the Passing Game." It is all regular season games. I have since added the Rutgers game, but overall it didn't make a big change in any particular stat. I took the receptions data from Cyclones.com, and tallied the available incompletions data from the ESPN play-by-play for each game. I know that my numbers are off some as ESPN occasionally just says "pass incomplete" rather than "pass incomplete to..." So truthfully the catch rates should be slightly lower than listed because every reception was accounted for (I assume, I took Cyclones.com stats to be legit) but not every incompletion was accounted for.
I've since also expanded the table to include yards/catch and yards/target but I haven't posted it. I also found the play-by-play on Cyclones.com, and I was thinking about cross-referencing that with the ESPN data to see if I could account for those incompletions that ESPN didn't get.
There's a website called FootballStudyHall.com that uses catch rates and target rates in game analysis (he mentioned from the bowl game that Reynolds and Darks combined for 3 catches on 14 targets - ugh). He's written some general analysis on catch rates and yards per target. Most receivers with significant targets in D1 are 60%+ on catch rate. The elite guys (Justin Blackmon, Kendall Wright, etc) can go as high at 85% catch rate for a season, even when they are targeted 15%+ of the time (which is a lot). Then, surprise surprise, the guys who catch the ball also end up picking up rediculous yards which leads to rediculous yards/catch (16+) and yards/target (12+). Most D1 receivers are in the 7 - 12 yards/target range.
I've since also expanded the table to include yards/catch and yards/target but I haven't posted it. I also found the play-by-play on Cyclones.com, and I was thinking about cross-referencing that with the ESPN data to see if I could account for those incompletions that ESPN didn't get.
There's a website called FootballStudyHall.com that uses catch rates and target rates in game analysis (he mentioned from the bowl game that Reynolds and Darks combined for 3 catches on 14 targets - ugh). He's written some general analysis on catch rates and yards per target. Most receivers with significant targets in D1 are 60%+ on catch rate. The elite guys (Justin Blackmon, Kendall Wright, etc) can go as high at 85% catch rate for a season, even when they are targeted 15%+ of the time (which is a lot). Then, surprise surprise, the guys who catch the ball also end up picking up rediculous yards which leads to rediculous yards/catch (16+) and yards/target (12+). Most D1 receivers are in the 7 - 12 yards/target range.
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Very cool. Those are key guys. If they are positively impacted and are responsive to Messingham, that is a good sign for the future.
I dont WANT to hate it, I just want reasons to like it other than that he is a likable guy...and nobody has provided me with that yet.
Do you really think, based on his hiring track record that Rhoads just thought "well, ****. Court's a nice guy. Let's give him the job"?
There are plenty of reasons in this thread. He's not the sexy hire we all were hoping for, but he's had success as a position coach, knows the system the head coach wants to run, has been a good recruiter, sets a precedent of hard work/good results being rewarded under Paul Rhoads, and has had his hands in pretty much every part of the offense over the years.
Given the publicity we've gotten in the past couple years, I have no doubt that we could have hired the "next Tom Herman" or a guy like Tony Franklin. Rhoads made this decision for a reason, and it wasn't because he couldn't get anyone outside of the program.
Is there any place that keeps statistics of "droped passes"? I mean I see that Money had a 50% catch rate but how many of the passes to him were "uncatchable" and how many were drops.
Not questioning you just wondering if some of our WR look a bit worse than they should because of some bad passes. Example if Money was our typical deep target (seems that he was) it makes sense that he would have lower % catch rate than Horne/West who we used a lot of Screens etc.
I have the complete 2010 D1 (not just BCS) catch and target data from Football Study Hall in Excel. ISU's 2010 receiving data is included in this data set. 2011 data hasn't been posted yet. I compared our receivers 2011 performance with the entire D1 NCAA receivers' 2010 performace. While it's not going to be exactly the same, I assumed that the total difference in all NCAA passing stats would be consistent from 2010 to 2011. Here's what I found...
- For all receivers with more than 10 passes thrown to them in 2010, the average catch rate was 63.4% (stdev 12.3%). ISU's total catch rate was 51%, which is worse than 84% of the receivers in this category. Individually, Reynolds and Darks were worse than 82% of the receivers in this category. West, Hammerschmidt, Lenz, White and Gary were all above the mean catch rate.
- For all receivers with more than 10 targets in 2010, the average yards/target was 7.3 (stdev 2.3). ISU's total yards/attempt was 5.7, which is worse than 75% of 2010 D1 NCAA football. Horne, Gary and Reynolds were individually above the mean. Gary was better than 82% of the receivers in this category.
- For all receivers with target rates >=10% in 2010, the average catch rate was 62.7% (stdev 9.5%). For ISU, Reynolds, Horne, Lenz and Darks had target rates >10%. Their combined catch rate was 56.6%, worse than 72% of receivers in this category. Individually, only Lenz was above the mean.
- For all receivers with target rates >=20% in 2010, the average catch rate was 61.9% (stdev 8.0%). Only Reynolds had a target rate >20%, and his individual catch rate was 50.6% or worse than 92% of similarly targeted receivers.
That's weird, I thought the goal for the offense was to score points and the goal for the defense was to not let the opponent score points.