here I had this emailed to me by a donor, take it from what you will
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Folks, slow down and enjoy the ride. Patience is a virtue. There may be a few bumps in the road, but I think that by Friday morning we will all know where the road is going. This is a cough*prediction*cough
1. It looks like there is a strong chance that the Big 12 conference will no longer exist by Friday.
2. There is a strong chance that everyone will be a free agent late this week.
3. The Weak sisters of the poor want to have guarantees in place that the movement of teams will cease and that there will be stability in the future. To this end there will be a proposal on Thursday that the league disband and be reformed in the image of Texass University, TLN, and that there be severe penalties, greater than the present liquidated damage clause, for teams leaving the conference. To that end, the remaining members would rather cut Texas A&M loose and have future stability than the $12 to $18 million in liquidated damages. You see if Texas A&M does not agree the conference does not dissolve and Texas A&M is still free to leave by paying the money, just as Texas University, Oklahoma and OSU are free to leave. Survival can lead to strange things happening and we are talking life and death to Iowa State, Kansas State, Kansas and Missouri. The proposed three to six year TV revenue penalty to any school signing the new charter, would be crippling to any major school seeking to move to another conference and that clause cannot be placed on Texas A&M retroactively. To get the clause they must give Texas A&M freedom.
4. The majority is not thrilled with Beebe.
My prediction is that the Big 12 does not exist after Thursday, that a new conference is formed and that there are six or seven remaining members with SMU, TCU, Houston and BYU being offered membership in the new Big whatever. Texass University gets their new conference, minus Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas A&M and the chance to play in the BCS Championship game every year, due to a weak schedule. ala Boise State. Texas A&M walks to the SEC without paying anyone and without the threat of legal action, which would be gone when the Big 12 dissolves. Iowa State, Kansas State, Kansas, and Missouri would rather have security than money from Texas A&M and they have to cut A&M loose to get security. There will be at least five votes for dissolution and that is all that are needed. The conference is dissolved if it only has five members and it appears that may well happen. Baylor by refusing to sign the wavier has cost every remaining member of the conference $2 million dollars and security; therefore, no one is happy with Baylor. Last week the conference had a chance to have seven members, plus any new ones that would come and security.