I think you're on to something with the Bears.
Chicago is more than likely going to be playing New Orleans in the second week of the playoffs. On a neutral field, New Orleans would be favored in that game, but Soldier Field in January, with the Saint's style and injury situation? That favors Chicago. The game would be a tossup, in my opinion, and it would not surprise me at all if the Bears won it. From there, they would either travel to Atlanta, or host the Packers/Eagles.
Atlanta has a good home field advantage, but their offense is a type that the Bears D matches up against well, (Strong run game mixed with vertical passing) and a defense that will allow teams to move the football. I like Chicago's chances as much as anyone's.
And the Packers and Eagles are both teams that have gone to Soldier Field and lost, this year.
Like you said, I don't think the Bears are the best team in the NFC, but I think the way the seeding turned out, they have to be happy with the road laid out before them. It gives them a chance.
Then again, you can make a similar case for just about every other team in playoffs, (except Seattle)