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MLB: Twins outlook

mj4cy

mj4cy

Asst. Regional Manager
Staff member
Mar 28, 2006
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Iowa
The Twins have shown recently you can't write them off just yet. They are now only 4.5 games back with two more home games against Baltimore and then a home stand against Texas.

Chicago is only one game ahead of them but they are in the middle of a road trip to Boston AND then to the Bronx. IF the Twins can hold their own the next few games, it will be their best chance to pass up the White Sox.

Detriot is on a west coast trip with two more games at the Angels and then they come home to battle the Rays. If the Twins were ever to make a move, now would be it.

Surprisingly, Scott Baker (who I had pegged as their 5th best option starting this year) has become quite the stablility with a 12-7 record and going 6-0 in his last 9 starts. He hasn't lost since July 7th. Justin Morneau had the week off from an ear infection so hopefully that break will be enough to recharge him for the rest of the year. Joe Mauer has shown that a slump to him is having his average drop to .350. He's now back up to .375. If he played on the East coast, he would be the MVP hands down.

The road is still tough for the Twins as they struggle to keep a consistant starting rotation healthy. The pick ups of Orlando Cabrera and Carl Pavano at least show somewhat that they are wanting to win.

Here's to another win tonight for 5 in a row!
 
I'm a die-hard Twins fan but I just don't think they can get over the hump. More than likely this winning streak will get them back to .500 and nothing more.

It will be interesting to see what they do in the off season now that they have the new ballpark and the additional revenue coming up.

They need a proven veteran starter, not an ace necessarily but someone like Pavano who is a professional pitcher and can help counsel the young guys.

And they'll need to replace Crede (probably) at 3B and decide who stays and goes in the middle infield and middle relief.

Most importantly they need to show Mauer they are serious about getting better and winning and then lock him up. I taste a little vomit in the back of my throat every time I think about Mauer in pinstripes or playing for the Soxs.
 
They might make a run right now... but I just don't see how the pitching staff can get it done. We have two call ups starting this week.

I hope I'm wrong, but that just wont hold up against the likes of Verlander, Jackson, Washburn, Buhrle, ect., in the many division games come September.
 
IcSyU said:
This is the only part I really disagree with. He'd be MVP if the Twins were knocking on the door of the playoffs. Right now, Teixiera is probably the leading candidate because he's arguably the best player on the best team in baseball. If the Twins sneak into the playoffs, he'll have a shot at it, and he'll deserve it because he'll have to carry 'em there.
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:confused: The stats would not support this. Could you imagine Mauer's stats in a lineup like the Yankees? Mauer is clearly a better MVP candidate.

Teixiera:

BA HR RBI OBP SLG
.288 31 93 .385 .556

Mauer (missed an entire month and gets the typical catcher rest day):

BA HR RBI OBP SLG
.374 25 78 .445 .629
 
jtd9046 said:
They might make a run right now... but I just don't see how the pitching staff can get it done. We have two call ups starting this week.

I hope I'm wrong, but that just wont hold up against the likes of Verlander, Jackson, Washburn, Buhrle, ect., in the many division games come September.
Click to expand...


One thing I've noticed is the Twins have had Burhle's number this year.
 
I had pretty much written them off because of the onslaught their bullpen had been dealing with the last month and a half.

Hopefully Pavano and Baker can right the ship and get the rest of the rotation calmed down and go 6 deep.

Offense isn't the problem, the Twins are second in the division in runs scored (behind Cleveland...I sense a trend), but the pitchers are just getting blown up. You can't keep winning games if you have to score 8-9 a night. Baker's outing last night was encouraging and the Twins have the most favorable schedule of the Central, we'll see what they can do down the stretch here.
 
At this point I'm pretty much convinced that it's the Twins' goal this year to crush my soul. Every time they get to/above .500, and come within a couple of games of the Tigers, they head into a slump and I finally begin convincing myself that I can finally write them off for the season. Then they will string together a bunch of wins and crawl back into the position that they were in before the slump, effectively putting them back into the race.

Personally, if I were to make a judgment call right now, I don't think the Twins have the pitching to get it done. Baker is the only consistent arm in the rotation right now, however, the Pavano deal is looking like a good one at this point, even though he's given up a bunch of runs. The problem is that's pretty much where the rotation ends. Perkins, Slowley, and Liriano all being out is a killer for the team. Blackburn's confidence seems to have hit the wall, and I'm convinced there's something wrong with his delivery that badly needs to be corrected. Schwarzak has been promising, but earlier in the season it looked like he just wasn't quite ready for this level of competition, and now it looks like he's running out of gas. Duensing looked good the other day as a fill-in starter out of the bullpen, but who knows whether he's capable of putting together quality starts for the rest of the year. And then there's the bullpen, which has been undermanned and overworked for the better part of the year, especially since the All-Star Break when they've been called in to clean up Blackburn's and Schwarzak's messes very early in games.

A rotation of Baker, Pavano, Blackburn, Schwarzak, and Duensing just does not illicit a lot of confidence out of me.

That being said, if the pitching staff could just hold opponents to 4-5 runs a game, the Twins could be leading this division right now. The sad thing is the Twins offense has put runs on the board unlike anything they have done in years. The real problem is the pitching staff has given up an insane amount of runs this year, and I can't even count how much offensive production has been wasted because of horrible pitching (dare I remember the 12-2 lead that Blackburn and Co gave up against Oakland?). But the odd thing is, for all of the pitching and other players that the Tigers and Sox have, they have not run away with the division.

I think I remember hearing that the Twins have not had a winning streak this season longer than 5 games. If the Twins want to win this division, that is going to have to change, especially considering they have the favorable schedule when compared to Detroit and Chicago. The problem is those two teams aren't going to fold just because they are facing more difficult competition.

IcSyU said:
This is the only part I really disagree with. He'd be MVP if the Twins were knocking on the door of the playoffs. Right now, Teixiera is probably the leading candidate because he's arguably the best player on the best team in baseball. If the Twins sneak into the playoffs, he'll have a shot at it, and he'll deserve it because he'll have to carry 'em there.
Click to expand...

I'm not necessarily sure you know what you are talking about, especially considering practically everyone in the media has all but handed Mauer the AL MVP trophy at this point. Mauer is putting up career home run numbers without sacrificing his average, which is 15-20 points higher than Ichiro, the second place guy. Plus his defense has been spot-on. The Twins may or may not make the playoffs, but it's pretty plainly clear that Mauer is the best player in the league without much discussion at this point. The only real discussion at this point is who's better between Pujols and Mauer...
 
IcSyU said:
This is the only part I really disagree with. He'd be MVP if the Twins were knocking on the door of the playoffs. Right now, Teixiera is probably the leading candidate because he's arguably the best player on the best team in baseball. If the Twins sneak into the playoffs, he'll have a shot at it, and he'll deserve it because he'll have to carry 'em there.
Click to expand...

You're so wrong that I can't even begin to dissect this.

Mauer is hitting .375 with 25 HR and 90 RBI.

He's on pace for around .365, 33 HR and 110 RBI. AS A CATCHER.

How can you not win the MVP with those numbers? Tex is going to be below .300.

The ONLY reason Mauer hasn't been delivered the trophy already is because of east coast bias. End of story.
 
jdoggivjc said:
At this point I'm pretty much convinced that it's the Twins' goal this year to crush my soul. Every time they get to/above .500, and come within a couple of games of the Tigers, they head into a slump and I finally begin convincing myself that I can finally write them off for the season. Then they will string together a bunch of wins and crawl back into the position that they were in before the slump, effectively putting them back into the race.

Personally, if I were to make a judgment call right now, I don't think the Twins have the pitching to get it done. Baker is the only consistent arm in the rotation right now, however, the Pavano deal is looking like a good one at this point, even though he's given up a bunch of runs. The problem is that's pretty much where the rotation ends. Perkins, Slowley, and Liriano all being out is a killer for the team. Blackburn's confidence seems to have hit the wall, and I'm convinced there's something wrong with his delivery that badly needs to be corrected. Schwarzak has been promising, but earlier in the season it looked like he just wasn't quite ready for this level of competition, and now it looks like he's running out of gas. Duensing looked good the other day as a fill-in starter out of the bullpen, but who knows whether he's capable of putting together quality starts for the rest of the year. And then there's the bullpen, which has been undermanned and overworked for the better part of the year, especially since the All-Star Break when they've been called in to clean up Blackburn's and Schwarzak's messes very early in games.

A rotation of Baker, Pavano, Blackburn, Schwarzak, and Duensing just does not illicit a lot of confidence out of me.

That being said, if the pitching staff could just hold opponents to 4-5 runs a game, the Twins could be leading this division right now. The sad thing is the Twins offense has put runs on the board unlike anything they have done in years. The real problem is the pitching staff has given up an insane amount of runs this year, and I can't even count how much offensive production has been wasted because of horrible pitching (dare I remember the 12-2 lead that Blackburn and Co gave up against Oakland?). But the odd thing is, for all of the pitching and other players that the Tigers and Sox have, they have not run away with the division.

I think I remember hearing that the Twins have not had a winning streak this season longer than 5 games. If the Twins want to win this division, that is going to have to change, especially considering they have the favorable schedule when compared to Detroit and Chicago. The problem is those two teams aren't going to fold just because they are facing more difficult competition.



I'm not necessarily sure you know what you are talking about, especially considering practically everyone in the media has all but handed Mauer the AL MVP trophy at this point. Mauer is putting up career home run numbers without sacrificing his average, which is 15-20 points higher than Ichiro, the second place guy. Plus his defense has been spot-on. The Twins may or may not make the playoffs, but it's pretty plainly clear that Mauer is the best player in the league without much discussion at this point. The only real discussion at this point is who's better between Pujols and Mauer...
Click to expand...

Great post, but Mauer is a clear #2 to Pujols at this point, IMHO.
 
DolphLundgren said:
The ONLY reason Mauer hasn't been delivered the trophy already is because of east coast bias. End of story.
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Well, the only reason Mauer hasn't been delivered the trophy already is because we are 2 months away from when the MVP is delivered.

And Morneau's MVP in 2006 should put to rest any accusations of east coast bias in MVP voting. The real bias is toward playoff teams.

If the Twin's even make a race of it in Sept, Mauer will win.

If they finish 10 games under .500, then he may not, but it'll be because of the Win/Loss record, not geography.

Some Mauer MVP poetry, if you haven't seen this yet:
AL MVP: Mauer, by a landslide - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
 
jdoggivjc said:
but it's pretty plainly clear that Mauer is the best player in the league without much discussion at this point. The only real discussion at this point is who's better between Pujols and Mauer...
Click to expand...


I just heard this morning from analysts that Tex is the front runner.
 
DolphLundgren said:
Great post, but Mauer is a clear #2 to Pujols at this point, IMHO.
Click to expand...

I tend to agree that Pujols is #1 at this point, but I think it's a lot more arguable than you make it. As you mentioned earlier, Mauer hits .375 while playing behind the plate, and this year he's begun hitting for power this year without sacrificing his average. Pujols puts up those numbers while playing 1B, which traditionally is an offense-friendly defensive position. Not saying that Pujols is just a bat that they put out at first base, because he's also one of the best defensive 1B players in the game. But the wear and tear at 1B certainly isn't what it is behind the plate.

I think Pujols gets the nod simply because he's been doing it longer than Mauer. But Mauer is closing that gap - quickly (to the point where the Twins are discussing which position to move him to in upcoming years because he's just too valuable of a bat to allow him to take the wear and tear being the team's catcher).
 
jdoggivjc said:
I tend to agree that Pujols is #1 at this point, but I think it's a lot more arguable than you make it. As you mentioned earlier, Mauer hits .375 while playing behind the plate, and this year he's begun hitting for power this year without sacrificing his average. Pujols puts up those numbers while playing 1B, which traditionally is an offense-friendly defensive position. Not saying that Pujols is just a bat that they put out at first base, because he's also one of the best defensive 1B players in the game. But the wear and tear at 1B certainly isn't what it is behind the plate.

I think Pujols gets the nod simply because he's been doing it longer than Mauer. But Mauer is closing that gap - quickly (to the point where the Twins are discussing which position to move him to in upcoming years because he's just too valuable of a bat to allow him to take the wear and tear being the team's catcher).
Click to expand...

Where do you move him, though? Morneau is too good of a 1B to lose. I see Morales as a viable replacement to Mauer if you move him from behind the plate.. but to where? Third base?
 
I got all amped up about this debate last week and posted some stats for some Tex fans to chew on. Keep in mind these are from last week.

The only other real candidate is Tex. His numbers:
73R, 130 Hits, 33 2B, 31 HR , 89 RBI, .283 AVG, .381 OBP, .557 SLG, .937 OPS

The guy who you say won't win it unless the Twins make the playoffs..
73R, 139 Hits, 21 2B, 25 HR, 77 RBI, .380 AVG, .448 OBP, .648 SLG, 1.095 OPS
 
DolphLundgren said:
Where do you move him, though? Morneau is too good of a 1B to lose. I see Morales as a viable replacement to Mauer if you move him from behind the plate.. but to where? Third base?
Click to expand...

Third base is probably the only realistic option. I'd say outfield is could be an option, but it's pretty much set with Cuddyer, Span, and Gomez. That and everyone knows that Crede was never going to be the permanent solution to 3rd base. The question then becomes does Mauer have the ability to make the switch.
 
Actually, an even better Baker stat

"After opening the season 2-6, Baker has gone 10-1 with a 3.67 ERA since June 1."
 
jdoggivjc said:
Third base is probably the only realistic option. I'd say outfield is could be an option, but it's pretty much set with Cuddyer, Span, and Gomez. That and everyone knows that Crede was never going to be the permanent solution to 3rd base. The question then becomes does Mauer have the ability to make the switch.
Click to expand...
ah crap, i forgot mauer throws righty...well that certainly offers more possibilities. i bet if he wanted to mauer could pitch (he's got a gun for an arm) and then play the field the other four days. thats how good of an athlete he is. that obviously won't happen....but i could see him taking over for crede after next season.
 
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