The Road To #12 (New Year's Six)

delt4cy

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May 11, 2006
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Assuming we win out, making it to Dallas for the Big12 Championship game would be a pinnacle achievement for this program, but could we be in an equal or better situation even if we don't? Let me play devils advocate here. The Alamo Bowl or Camping World would be fantastic, but we are potentially in line for a NY6 if the chips fall our way. That could be better than making it to Dallas and getting bounced out of the Top 12. (happened to TCU last year)

Caveats: We win out (if not, this is all for moot)

Let me play out this scenario.

1. We win out and sit at 8-3 after KState. Creep up to somewhere between 10 and 14 in the CFB Playoff ranking.

2. #5 OU loses to #7WVU, ensuring a rematch a week later in Dallas. OU drops to #8-10, WVU climbs to #6

3. ISU pummels Incarnate Word to sit at 9-3 before "selection sunday". Primed to sit at around #10

Top 12 competition pool:
(SEC - Georgia, UF, UK, Alabama, LSU)
-UF, UK, and LSU likely win out and position themselves all in Top 12/14. I'm assuming Bama takes care of Miss. St
(Big 10 - Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State)
-Penn State could win out (home vs. Wisconsin) and be sniffing around Top 12 as well.
(Big 12 - OU, WVU, ISU)
- ISU hanging around Top 10. One of WVU or OU likely get bounced from Top 12.
(ACC - Clemson........lots of knock out rounds in next few weeks for Syracuse & BC)
-Clemson only realistic Top 12 shot at this point imo. Assumes ND beats Syracuse and BC loses to Clemson.
(Pac 12 - WSU)
-Will be Top 6 if they win out. Otherwise empty cupboards in Pac 12. Washington could make up some ground though.
Notre Dame
UCF
-touch match-ups left vs. Cincy, @USF, and AAC Champ game.

That's ~15 teams for 12 spots in New Year's 6 bowls.

We need to root hard for a couple of things to clear the path:

1. UCF to lose so they don't steal a NY6 spot. (This is most important imo) Edit. Scratch this. Top Group of 5 is guaranteed a NY6 spot.
2. UF and/or UK to drop lower than us in the CFP rankings tomorrow. 5 SEC in final Top 12 would be excessive.
3. WSU to get knocked out by CU or Arizona. We want them to beat UW, so they don't sneak up.

If that pans out, we could potentially have a Peach/Fiesta/Sugar/or .........dare I say Rose Bowl birth (if no Pac 12 option). If UCF is out, the field is full of appealing SEC and Big10 foes.

That would be a dream scenario and maybe even a better outcome than making it to Dallas and getting bounced by OU. (If we win out and win the Big12 Champ, we're obviously in the same spot, but much harder road to hoe) The fact that these scenarios are possible and quite realistic is incredible to me.

What an awesome time to be alive as a Cyclone! In the meantime, let's crush Baylor! Never Forget 71-7!
 
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Top Group of Six school is guaranteed NY6 so your point 1 doesn't matter. (i think)
 
Just like last year, we're on the cusp of a great season. The stunted beginning to the season and going to Purdy a game late may be what stands between this team and a NY6 game
 
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One other option. Sugar Bowl is a contract bowl this year and not part of playoffs (Like last year). They have to take the Conference winner or the second place team if the winner goes to the Playoffs.

Play a one loss OU in CCG. OU wins and goes to playoffs. ISU goes to Sugar Bowl. ISU wins CCG. ISU goes to the Sugar Bowl.
 
There is going to be a ton of people saying they would rather get to the Big 12 championship and win. i think we all agree on that, but I think OP is saying that if we don’t we can still make a NY6 and have a historical season. Maybe even a better season that getting to and losing the conference championship, which we wouldn’t of course anyways ;). I do not see OU falling behind us with a loss to WVU, however, since they have the head to head. Even though it was early, before we found our qb, and we are still the only team to keep OU’s offense in check. They won’t look past H2H. I could see WVU falling below us in that scenario because of our decisive H2H win though. So if your scenario played out I’m cheering for OU over WVU in the CCG.
 
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I applaud your effort, but if the committee didn't let TCU in the NY6 last year at 10-3 with 2 losses to OU, there is zero chance ISU makes it this year.

I see your point, but if we are winners of 8 straight we are in the Top 12.

TCU's fall was the result of loss timing and deeper pool of other teams vying for Top 12 slots. UW stole what should have been TCUs spot in the Fiesta against Penn State. They most certainly got screwed by playing in the Big 12 Championship game last year, especially considering how strong OU was.
 
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I applaud your effort, but if the committee didn't let TCU in the NY6 last year at 10-3 with 2 losses to OU, there is zero chance ISU makes it this year.

The B1G also had 3 NY 6 teams last year due to missing the playoffs. Even if they miss the playoffs again this year, I don't see 3 teams in the NY 6 again.
 
I see your point, but if we are winners of 8 straight we are in the Top 12.

TCU's fall was the result of loss timing and deeper pool of other teams vying for Top 12 slots. UW stole what should have been TCUs spot in the Fiesta against Penn State. They most certainly got screwed by playing in the Big 12 Championship game last year, especially considering how strong OU was.

I don't think TCU's fall was so much of timing, as it was based off the beat down they took from Oklahoma in the CCG. If I remember correctly, TCU played Oklahoma close, but I have a feeling that blow out didnt go over to kindly with the selection committee.
 
Ranked losses ahead of us this weekend:

#11 Kentucky (3 L)
#14 NC State (3 L)
#16 Mississippi St. (4 L)
#17 BC loses (3 L)
#18 Michigan State (4 L)
#21 Iowa (4 L)

I'm guessing, Iowa State will rank ~17 in the CFP rankings. NC State, MSU, BC, MSU, & Iowa should all drop below us.

Texas will probably check in around ~14

Florida's comeback was unfortunate. Penn State will win out too, so was hoping for a Wisconsin win there.
 
If I had to predict, I see us winning out but just missing the champ game. If 9-3 is our consolation prize, I'll gladly take it.

Here's the problem though, even if we finish ahead of Texas in the standings and WVU and OU make NY6, won't the Alamo bowl pick Texas pretty much no matter what?
 
If I had to predict, I see us winning out but just missing the champ game. If 9-3 is our consolation prize, I'll gladly take it.

Here's the problem though, even if we finish ahead of Texas in the standings and WVU and OU make NY6, won't the Alamo bowl pick Texas pretty much no matter what?

Weren't there Alamo reps at the game Saturday? Hopefully they figure out if we can damn near fill a stadium on a day like that we will take over San Antonio. But then again it's not like Texas has a small fan base...
 
Weren't there Alamo reps at the game Saturday? Hopefully they figure out if we can damn near fill a stadium on a day like that we will take over San Antonio. But then again it's not like Texas has a small fan base...
You would think that the city would push for a school like ISU. Think how many more millions of dollars we’d put into that town. (Even though they’d still pick Texas).
 
Assuming we win out, making it to Dallas for the Big12 Championship game would be a pinnacle achievement for this program, but could we be in an equal or better situation even if we don't? Let me play devils advocate here. The Alamo Bowl or Camping World would be fantastic, but we are potentially in line for a NY6 if the chips fall our way. That could be better than making it to Dallas and getting bounced out of the Top 12. (happened to TCU last year)

Caveats: We win out (if not, this is all for moot)

Let me play out this scenario.

1. We win out and sit at 8-3 after KState. Creep up to somewhere between 10 and 14 in the CFB Playoff ranking.

2. #5 OU loses to #7WVU, ensuring a rematch a week later in Dallas. OU drops to #8-10, WVU climbs to #6

3. ISU pummels Incarnate Word to sit at 9-3 before "selection sunday". Primed to sit at around #10

Top 12 competition pool:
(SEC - Georgia, UF, UK, Alabama, LSU)
-UF, UK, and LSU likely win out and position themselves all in Top 12/14. I'm assuming Bama takes care of Miss. St
(Big 10 - Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State)
-Penn State could win out (home vs. Wisconsin) and be sniffing around Top 12 as well.
(Big 12 - OU, WVU, ISU)
- ISU hanging around Top 10. One of WVU or OU likely get bounced from Top 12.
(ACC - Clemson........lots of knock out rounds in next few weeks for Syracuse & BC)
-Clemson only realistic Top 12 shot at this point imo. Assumes ND beats Syracuse and BC loses to Clemson.
(Pac 12 - WSU)
-Will be Top 6 if they win out. Otherwise empty cupboards in Pac 12. Washington could make up some ground though.
Notre Dame
UCF
-touch match-ups left vs. Cincy, @USF, and AAC Champ game.

That's ~15 teams for 12 spots in New Year's 6 bowls.

We need to root hard for a couple of things to clear the path:

1. UCF to lose so they don't steal a NY6 spot. (This is most important imo) Edit. Scratch this. Top Group of 5 is guaranteed a NY6 spot.
2. UF and/or UK to drop lower than us in the CFP rankings tomorrow. 5 SEC in final Top 12 would be excessive.
3. WSU to get knocked out by CU or Arizona. We want them to beat UW, so they don't sneak up.

If that pans out, we could potentially have a Peach/Fiesta/Sugar/or .........dare I say Rose Bowl birth (if no Pac 12 option). If UCF is out, the field is full of appealing SEC and Big10 foes.

That would be a dream scenario and maybe even a better outcome than making it to Dallas and getting bounced by OU. (If we win out and win the Big12 Champ, we're obviously in the same spot, but much harder road to hoe) The fact that these scenarios are possible and quite realistic is incredible to me.

What an awesome time to be alive as a Cyclone! In the meantime, let's crush Baylor! Never Forget 71-7!

I almost pledged Delt. Wickedly smart. Them. Not me.
 
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