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Stats in W's vs L's

dahliaclone

dahliaclone

Well-Known Member
Mar 4, 2007
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I don't think many will find the overall stats of this that shocking...maybe some will. We are all aware that if Brockington and Hunter are the only ones scoring we lose. But I was curious what our ppg in Hilton was for Big 12 vs away. PPG neutral and non con away. What record was home and away when GGK (Gabe, Grill, Kunc) were scoring or not. Results below...

Summary is (again probably not too shocking just trying to show data) we need to be hitting at least 8 threes as a team and GGK needs to get a combined 25 or more for us to win. It's really about that simple. If those three are all off...we're toast which we knew.

Home was not great for GGK as you'll see with the stats.

And while it's a three game data point all from the non-con, away and neutral we play our best. Highest PPG, best 3 point % as a team, GGK with over 28 ppg.

Bolded stats are shocking to me...

PPG at Hilton vs Big 12 = 63 ppg
PPG away Big 12 games - 62 ppg
Neutral/Away non-con games = 75 ppg (only three games but noticeable)

Home game Big 12 losses stats:
  • 21 total team threes in 5 losses (that's unreal)
  • 21-104 from three for 20%
  • GGK stats = 21-94 FG shooting for 22%
  • GGK = 12 ppg total
Home game Big 12 wins stats:
  • 35 total team threes in 4 wins
  • 35-72 from three for 49%
  • GGK stats = 38-70 for 54%
  • GGK = 31 ppg total
Away Big 12 losses stats:
  • 28 total team threes in 5 losses
  • 28-101 from three for 28%
  • GGK stats = 28-81 FG shooting for 34%
  • GGK = 14 ppg total
Away Big 12 wins stats:
  • 27 total team threes in 3 wins
  • 27-67 from three for 40%
  • GGK stats = 21-53 FG shooting for 40%
  • GGK = 21 ppg total
Netural/Away wins stats:
  • 24 total team threes in 3 wins
  • 24-50 from three for 48%
  • GGK stats = 27-46 FG shooting for 59%
  • GGK = 28 ppg total
 
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Appreciate you taking the time to do this research. Aligns perfectly with my anecdotal observations which is that IB carries us and it’s a matter of whether or not (a) one of those 3 makes a material contribution and (b) if we’re ice cold from 3.
 
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We basically win games when we have two scorers besides brockington. We look like a terrible team when we have 1 other. And we look horrid when it’s only brockington.

That’s why getting a consistent scorer for next year is very important.
 
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In our wins we are averaging over 40% from 3 and 25% from 3 in our losses. I don’t think it as simple as just making or missing shots. We average 17 assists in our wins and 11 assists in our losses. The offense works when we are finding open cutters, driving to the bucket, and moving the ball to find the open shooter. When the offense gets stagnant like it did tonight, it can be really hard to watch.
 
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Long teams that ball pressure the perimeter DESTROY this team. They cant move the ball around well, and they dont have the size to get inside and succeed. And we dont have a skilled big to pass to inside to force them to collapse. Once or twice to Bob or GC4 isnt enough. Could Enarunna have helped last night? Idk.

The reason GGK have points in the wins is that teams let them have looks from 3. Kunc especially is a great shooter if he has time. But if rushed like last night, forget it.

The scout is sell out to pressure the perimeter and dont worry abt defending the paint at all. Esp if you have a big guy inside who can block shots and rebound. If you do that, and can stumble to 50 points yourself, you win.
 
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Teams that score a high percentage of three's score off a set play that results in an open shot at the 3 point line. Shooting from 10 feet beyond the ark may get you close, but rim out. Throwing up hurried shots most never goes in.

Having said that, I have never seen so many missed layups and turnovers off a steal. I can understand why some of the layups are missed against athletic teams. Better plan is to pull up and shoot a 3.
 
PPG at Hilton vs Big 12 = 63 ppg
PPG away Big 12 games - 62 ppg
Neutral/Away non-con games = 75 ppg

Can't wait to see them play non-B12 teams in the tournament. Should help the offense immensely not going up against a physical top 10 defense like they've been doing. I'm hopeful the undefeated non-con is a sign.
 
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Jkclone15 said:
PPG at Hilton vs Big 12 = 63 ppg
PPG away Big 12 games - 62 ppg
Neutral/Away non-con games = 75 ppg

Can't wait to see them play non-B12 teams in the tournament. Should help the offense immensely not going up against a physical top 10 defense like they've been doing. I'm hopeful the undefeated non-con is a sign.
Click to expand...

The tourney is a chance to push 'reset' and start anew.

Would be fun to see them get one win on a bigger stage.

Luckily last night was on ESPN+. I say that as an ISU fan and for any general college basketball fans that didn't have to watch that.
 
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dahliaclone said:
I don't think many will find the overall stats of this that shocking...maybe some will. We are all aware that if Brockington and Hunter are the only ones scoring we lose. But I was curious what our ppg in Hilton was for Big 12 vs away. PPG neutral and non con away. What record was home and away when GGK (Gabe, Grill, Kunc) were scoring or not. Results below...

Summary is (again probably not too shocking just trying to show data) we need to be hitting at least 8 threes as a team and GGK needs to get a combined 25 or more for us to win. It's really about that simple. If those three are all off...we're toast which we knew.

Home was not great for GGK as you'll see with the stats.

And while it's a three game data point all from the non-con, away and neutral we play our best. Highest PPG, best 3 point % as a team, GGK with over 28 ppg.

Bolded stats are shocking to me...

PPG at Hilton vs Big 12 = 63 ppg
PPG away Big 12 games - 62 ppg
Neutral/Away non-con games = 75 ppg (only three games but noticeable)

Home game Big 12 losses stats:
  • 21 total team threes in 5 losses (that's unreal)
  • 21-104 from three for 20%
  • GGK stats = 21-94 FG shooting for 22%
  • GGK = 12 ppg total
Home game Big 12 wins stats:
  • 35 total team threes in 4 wins
  • 35-72 from three for 49%
  • GGK stats = 38-70 for 54%
  • GGK = 31 ppg total
Away Big 12 losses stats:
  • 28 total team threes in 5 losses
  • 28-101 from three for 28%
  • GGK stats = 28-81 FG shooting for 34%
  • GGK = 14 ppg total
Away Big 12 wins stats:
  • 27 total team threes in 3 wins
  • 27-67 from three for 40%
  • GGK stats = 21-53 FG shooting for 40%
  • GGK = 21 ppg total
Netural/Away wins stats:
  • 24 total team threes in 3 wins
  • 24-50 from three for 48%
  • GGK stats = 27-46 FG shooting for 59%
  • GGK = 28 ppg total
Click to expand...
Great stuff thanks! This gives me hope for the future since this team was thrown together and appears the focus was mostly defense. One or two more reliable scorers will make a world of difference plus as Hunter improves he will be a more reliable scorer - the future is bright.
 
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jsb said:
We basically win games when we have two scorers besides brockington. We look like a terrible team when we have 1 other. And we look horrid when it’s only brockington.

That’s why getting a consistent scorer for next year is very important.
Click to expand...
I AGREE, That's why TJ needs to go out and recruit 2 or 3 good shooters
 
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VegasCy said:
In our wins we are averaging over 40% from 3 and 25% from 3 in our losses. I don’t think it as simple as just making or missing shots. We average 17 assists in our wins and 11 assists in our losses. The offense works when we are finding open cutters, driving to the bucket, and moving the ball to find the open shooter. When the offense gets stagnant like it did tonight, it can be really hard to watch.
Click to expand...
At least I wasn't disappointed with the offensive scheme, meaning I thought we found open cutters last night a lot, did some driving to the bucket, found gaps galore (Kunc several little 6 footers)........we JUST DIDN'T FINISH and/or GOT BLOCKED! Of course if we threw it out, the open 3's didn't go either. If all of Kunc, Grill, and Gabe can't make 3's, it makes it pretty impossible to win.
 
Jkclone15 said:
PPG at Hilton vs Big 12 = 63 ppg
PPG away Big 12 games - 62 ppg
Neutral/Away non-con games = 75 ppg

Can't wait to see them play non-B12 teams in the tournament. Should help the offense immensely not going up against a physical top 10 defense like they've been doing. I'm hopeful the undefeated non-con is a sign.
Click to expand...

Agree. For reference, Oklahoma State has the 9th best defense in the country, according to KenPom. Using Bracket Matrix, we are a 7 seed. Here are the 4 10 seeds and their defensive efficiency rankings and then a few more teams in the vicinity seedwise. So while getting out of the Big 12 should help, there are still good defenses as potential matchups, which I found surprising.

Moral of the story: Hope for a matchup with Davidson and not San Diego State or Boise State.

San Francisco (20)
Davidson (152)
Creighton (23)
Notre Dame (69)
San Diego St (1)
Wyoming (79)
Xavier (64)
Seton Hall (30)
Boise State (17)
 
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LanningIsBakersDaddy said:
Specifically Caleb Grill is shooting 27.8% ( 25/90) from 3 at home and 58.1% (25/43) from 3 in away / neutral court games....

Somebody convince this guy Hilton is a road game!
Click to expand...
I think they said on the radio he was 20/35 from 3 in big 12 away games and like 4/30 or something like that. Definitely a mental block, he has a good stroke when he’s shooting it with confidence. After he missed a couple early yesterday it just didn’t seem like he was as aggressive or wanted the ball. Just shoot it young man and don’t worry what the fans think. Maybe they should have run a lob for him to start thing off like was suggested on the corner 3 pod. Just to have a little fun.
 
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CascadeClone said:
Long teams that ball pressure the perimeter DESTROY this team. They cant move the ball around well, and they dont have the size to get inside and succeed. And we dont have a skilled big to pass to inside to force them to collapse. Once or twice to Bob or GC4 isnt enough. Could Enarunna have helped last night? Idk.

The reason GGK have points in the wins is that teams let them have looks from 3. Kunc especially is a great shooter if he has time. But if rushed like last night, forget it.
Click to expand...
To my eyes, it's a confidence thing with the GGK trio. Kunc had a few wide open looks early that didn't hit, and the trigger git more doubtful as the gane progressed to the point he wasn't looking when he had space/time later.

Not trying to single Kunc out, all three seem to get a boost of confidence if they see the ball go through the hoop and each have shown a streaky tendency.

Grill has gone off early and late in the season, but he's also had a long stretch where he's shot 20-25%.

It all averages out when you look at season #s, I just wish we could string together more consistent ~30% shooting to get there rather than strings of 45-50% and 20-25%
 
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