So how good is the Big 12 in Basketball this year?

[jdoggivjc]

Just to reference the original question - how good are any other conferences?

The Big East to me looks like a great UConn, a frisky Marquette and Creighton, and then... very very average.
B1G is basically Purdue and a bunch of really meh and really bad teams. And all of them, including Purdue, have big flaws.
SEC looks good on paper, but Bama plays no defense, Tennessee has Rick Barnes, and Auburn is Auburn. I could see their next level down teams surprise though - SC, UK, FL.
Pac12 is Arizona, Wazzu, average Oregon, and then its pretty bad pretty fast.

I think the SEC is the only other conference where half the league isn't hot wet garbage.

It would be a good year to have say six or seven Big12 teams in the S16, but its always so random you can't count on anything.

Could also mean a year where the mid-majors shine, but outside of SDSU (who was better last year) and St. Mary’s (who is good but isn’t “Gonzaga at its peak” good), who would that be? There aren’t any mid-majors this year that are screaming “look at me” yet… then again, did anyone see FAU coming last year?

 

[HFCS]

Just to reference the original question - how good are any other conferences?

The Big East to me looks like a great UConn, a frisky Marquette and Creighton, and then... very very average.
B1G is basically Purdue and a bunch of really meh and really bad teams. And all of them, including Purdue, have big flaws.
SEC looks good on paper, but Bama plays no defense, Tennessee has Rick Barnes, and Auburn is Auburn. I could see their next level down teams surprise though - SC, UK, FL.
Pac12 is Arizona, Wazzu, average Oregon, and then its pretty bad pretty fast.

I think the SEC is the only other conference where half the league isn't hot wet garbage.

It would be a good year to have say six or seven Big12 teams in the S16, but its always so random you can't count on anything.

I can’t just ignore the past 5-10 seasons of actual ncaa tournament results.

To me it pretty much looks like:
P2: big 12 and big east
Group of 4: sec, acc, big ten, pac
High mid majors
Low mid majors

Purdue might change my mind and actually look like a high seed finally, but their results have been 10 seed results for a lot of years in a row. This is a pretty large sample size. The big 12 has done far more in 5 years than the big ten has done in 20…with just 10 teams!

 

[Texbudman]

The good news is that the B12 will get some pretty good seeds. Beyond that, the non-con makes it difficult to know for certain, at this point. They certainly pass the eye test and have some recent past results to hang theor hat on.

Agree on the eye test. Watching two Big 12 teams going head to head is like watching a different sport when compared to watching other conferences, especially the Big 10 where defense seems optional.

 

[rosshm16]

Here is, from what I can determine, some factors the selection committee considers (including but not limited to):

• NET and other computer rankings
• Injured players
• Performance in road and neutral-court games
• Conference strength of schedule
• Non-con strength of schedule
• Record against other tourney teams

If we give all those things roughly equal weight, I'd call it a wash between ISU and KU and the better seed should go to the team with the better record who also won the head-to-head matchup. But reality will likely be the "eye test" (one jersey says Kansas, the other says Iowa State) and we'll get a #3 to their #2, such is life as a redblood.

 

[cyclones500]

Could also mean a year where the mid-majors shine, but outside of SDSU (who was better last year) and St. Mary’s (who is good but isn’t “Gonzaga at its peak” good), who would that be? There aren’t any mid-majors this year that are screaming “look at me” yet… then again, did anyone see FAU coming last year?

MWC has possibilities beyond SD State - Utah State and New Mexico, perhaps. I don't really trust most of those teams to go deep, but it'd be the closest to an FAU comparison.

FAU '24 also is sort of like FAU '23. (But higher expectation, so maybe it doesn't count).

I feel like most of the mid-major-ish action might come 11/12/13 line with some teams that have dominated their conferences during regular season. Maybe it's only 1st round upset but some I could see going second weekend. More on those at some point later.