Searching for an offensive identity in the post-Niang era

[EarthIsMan]

Unlike previous years, ISU’s defense is formidable. While the prospect of an opposing post presence is worrisome, so far it appears to that this team’s can manage it in regard to rebounding and guarding opposing posts despite usually being undersized. However, our post defenders need to defend without fouling...out.

But this team’s offense has been schizophrenic and at this point lacks any identity.

As has been noted by many, this team does well and often wins when the assist rate is high and the correlations support this statement too.

In the losses (largest circles) and near losses (Indiana State) the assist rate has been very low. While this may not be surprising since most great offense teams are associated with great passing, there are still some very effective offenses that have low assist rates. These have players that create their own offense. Teams with low assist rates, but better offenses than ISU currently are:

So while offensive efficiency does not depend on assist rates, teams that get away with it have athletic guards who can reliably create and make shots while being heavily guarded. This does not happen to be Iowa State’s strength. The offensive of creation of Burton, Bowie, and Morris is too inconsistent to be relied upon.

Predictably, assist rates are confounded in the ability to make shots- especially 3s. So while dissecting a defense with the precise scalpel of passing is needed, ISU also sorely needs its shooters to make shots (duh!)

Offensively, ISU will go as far as Thomas, Jackson, or Mitrou-Long can shoot the 3 and open up defenses.

The keys offensively, I believe, are:

1. More transition offense to “neutralize” teams with post players. Rarely do you see a team as "small" as Iowa State try to grind out half court offensive possessions. We seem to only run on teams that much worse than we are.
   
   
2. Early actions in half court sets. Too much standing and waiting for the high ball screen late in the shot clock.
   
   
3. Ball reversal. Open of the defense with corner 3s. Constantly put pressure on the help defense rotations.
   
   
4. More sets to get open threes. Too often Thomas, Mitrou-Long, and Jackson are jab-stepping & head-faking their way into contested 3s. They are simply shooting too many of their shots without any rhythm.

Currently, this team is not always playing to its perceived strengths.

 

[acgclone]

Sample size is really small for rebounding. Half of our opponents have been 200+ in RPI (just an eyeball guess). I think we're going to get crushed on the glass in the B12.

 

[rholtgraves]

Sample size is really small for rebounding. Half of our opponents have been 200+ in RPI (just an eyeball guess). I think we're going to get crushed on the glass in the B12.

Especially if Holden continues to play. He is really bad. Bowie and Young are far superior rebounders.

 

[fsanford]

Basketball is an easy sport. When you have a layup or an open look make the shot a high percentage of the time, so that when you have contested shots, the impact of missing those is not as great.

 

[rholtgraves]

I really hope Prohm makes some lineup changes.

 

[Bryce7]

Walking the ball up court lets the enemy rest and get in place. Thought we had lots of players so pace could be kept up. Monte cannot make an assist too often if the other four stand around and they shoot bricks. Nitrou Long is a shooting disappointment. Matt comes and goes. Deonte needs to be the instigator. Monte has some weaknesses in his game in instigating action. That said, 6-7 centers are a tad small and lightweight. Reminds me of Ejim playing center. Really impresse d with hustle by Young and Jackson. Is simeon Clark still ion the team? Defense looks great but games are more boring.

 

[EarthIsMan]

Sample size is really small for rebounding. Half of our opponents have been 200+ in RPI (just an eyeball guess). I think we're going to get crushed on the glass in the B12.

I am concerned about this too, but in every game this season except for 2 (Cincinnati and Nebraska-Omaha) we had both a better offensive and defensive rebounding rate than the opposing team. That is actually pretty outstanding.

If this changes then I am concerned, but current evidence tells me this isn't a primary concern.

 

[Gunnerclone]

Walking the ball up court lets the enemy rest and get in place. Thought we had lots of players so pace could be kept up. Monte cannot make an assist too often if the other four stand around and they shoot bricks. Nitrou Long is a shooting disappointment. Matt comes and goes. Deonte needs to be the instigator. Monte has some weaknesses in his game in instigating action. That said, 6-7 centers are a tad small and lightweight. Reminds me of Ejim playing center. Really impresse d with hustle by Young and Jackson. Is simeon Clark still ion the team? Defense looks great but games are more boring.

JFC...sometimes a nice reality check of what we're dealing with on this forum is useful.

 

[cydsho]

I like the offensive identity of scoring points. Don't really care how it's done.

 

[kingcy]

Niang was perfect for the players on the team. When you have guards that are spot up shooters, which that is about all he played with, he could pass to them at the right time. Dribble drive and pass, or dribble drive and score, or just score, he could do it all well. When you have players that cannot create their own shot and lack one thing or another in their game you will struggle at times. Niang covered up a lot of other players weaknesses because he was so good at everything and drawing defenders in.

 

[blutarsky]

Niang was perfect for the players on the team. When you have guards that are spot up shooters, which that is about all he played with, he could pass to them at the right time. Dribble drive and pass, or dribble drive and score, or just score, he could do it all well. When you have players that cannot create their own shot and lack one thing or another in their game you will struggle at times. Niang covered up a lot of other players weaknesses because he was so good at everything and drawing defenders in.

Exactly ... Watch how teams defend our high-ball screen game and pick-and-roll. They hedge hard and pressure Morris and all perimeter ball handlers. Opposing teams know Holden, Bowie and Young are not threats to score. The pressure stalls Morris and the entire offense becomes iso.

At some point Prohm needs to have a frountcourt player that can score/pass. If not this season is only going as far as our 3pt %. Naz, Thomas and Morris are all capable from 3, but not when they have to create their own shot.

AND ... Everybody in the building knows Burton can't use his right hand. Pretty easy to stop.

 

[AuH2O]

This years adjustment on the offensive end is huge. We have had fours years of successful half-court offense built primarily around Niang, Kane and Clyburn initiating the offense, getting in the lane and either scoring or other guys making plays off of that penetration. Burton can be that guy to some extent, and NWB might be able to as well. It also helped having bigs that were good shooters.

The other thing I haven't seen mentioned is that in Nader we lost the best transition offensive player we have had in some time. McKay was also a great finisher in transition. With the improved defense, there should be a lot more opportunities to run. The run against Gonzaga was a crazy pace. Burton was gassed, but he and the team went on a massive run.

More minutes for Bowie, Young and Babb. When Young gets position, give him the damn ball.

 

[AuH2O]

Exactly ... Watch how teams defend our high-ball screen game and pick-and-roll. They hedge hard and pressure Morris and all perimeter ball handlers. Opposing teams know Holden, Bowie and Young are not threats to score. The pressure stalls Morris and the entire offense becomes iso.

At some point Prohm needs to have a frountcourt player that can score/pass. If not this season is only going as far as our 3pt %. Naz, Thomas and Morris are all capable from 3, but not when they have to create their own shot.

AND ... Everybody in the building knows Burton can't use his right hand. Pretty easy to stop.

Bowie has shown he can score. He's scoring double figures despite having to do it almost all off of offensive rebounds. Young is also hard to say. He would get good position and our guards wouldn't feed him.

 

[Desiigner]

Walking the ball up court lets the enemy rest and get in place. Thought we had lots of players so pace could be kept up. Monte cannot make an assist too often if the other four stand around and they shoot bricks. Nitrou Long is a shooting disappointment. Matt comes and goes. Deonte needs to be the instigator. Monte has some weaknesses in his game in instigating action. That said, 6-7 centers are a tad small and lightweight. Reminds me of Ejim playing center. Really impresse d with hustle by Young and Jackson. Is simeon Clark still ion the team? Defense looks great but games are more boring.

It's Carter not clark and Ive been wondering the same thing. What's the point of having him on scholarship if Prohm refuses to play him. Stu has as many minutes as Carter does

 

[Bryce7]

Meanwhile, in ft wayne

http://dleague.nba.com/games/20161210/TEXFWN/

 

[Gunnerclone]

Meanwhile, in ft wayne

http://dleague.nba.com/games/20161210/TEXFWN/

Georges vs 2013-14 Baylor.

 

[Billups06]

Niang was perfect for the players on the team. When you have guards that are spot up shooters, which that is about all he played with, he could pass to them at the right time. Dribble drive and pass, or dribble drive and score, or just score, he could do it all well. When you have players that cannot create their own shot and lack one thing or another in their game you will struggle at times. Niang covered up a lot of other players weaknesses because he was so good at everything and drawing defenders in.

The more you think about it, this is spot on. I'd be curious to the percentage of FG's that Niang scored/assisted on last year. I think we're seeing how much we relied on Niang to create (Nader in transition as well).

Our offenses were so efficient the past four years because we had a post player that could play outside. Simply put, we don't have that this year. That's a significant change in offense for all these guys. In the next month, I sure hope I'm looking back on this and wondering why I was so worried about this team.

 

[Sigmapolis]

The keys offensively, I believe, are:

1. More transition offense to “neutralize” teams with post players. Rarely do you see a team as "small" as Iowa State try to grind out half court offensive possessions. We seem to only run on teams that much worse than we are.
   
   
2. Early actions in half court sets. Too much standing and waiting for the high ball screen late in the shot clock.
   
   
3. Ball reversal. Open of the defense with corner 3s. Constantly put pressure on the help defense rotations.
   
   
4. More sets to get open threes. Too often Thomas, Mitrou-Long, and Jackson are jab-stepping & head-faking their way into contested 3s. They are simply shooting too many of their shots without any rhythm.

Currently, this team is not always playing to its perceived strengths.

This is good stuff, and I agree with all of it. However, I am going to play Devil's Advocate (or the opposing scouting report, setting up a defensive plan against ISU) for fun.

1. Opposing teams can take one look at our roster, starting lineup, minutes played, and reputation and know this is going to be a guard-heavy, perimeter-oriented teams. Teams like that often want to run. You can heavily limit the running that your opponent does in the full-court by conceding on the offensive boards and sending four or five men back when the shot goes up, forcing a half-court game. UVA did this to a T on us this spring, confident that their half-court game was better than our half-court game. If I'm preparing to guard ISU, I notice their weakness in half-court offense and how creative Morris, Mitrou-Long, and Weiler-Babb can be in streaking to the basket on the other end. Preventing that is a trade I want to make.

We also lack that "trailing post" who is willing and able to make a three and the end of a break. Georges was a master at that. Burton, maybe, but nobody obvious.

Georges was super unique, to say the least.

I would actually want Prohm to play a more pressure style on defense, as well as wanted to play more of a full-court game on offense. That style worked pretty well against Iowa during our runs at comebacks in the second-half. We have plenty of bodies and fouls to give playing like that -- not saying go full Press Virginia, but tell your guys to go out there, play hard, go for the ball, go up and down, and not worry about fouling or fatigue so much. We have enough men to do it. Just doesn't seem to be Prohm's emphasis with game management now.

2. If I'm an opponent, I'm dang fine with ISU trying to work the pick-and-roll. That's a very NBA sort of offense, but we lack a guard with the shooting/driving ability and a post with the screening and "pop" abilities to really make it hum. I'm fine watching ISU try to run an offense through that. I think the more interesting point to address are in #3 and #4, however.

3. I am less concerned about this than I might otherwise be because of the nature of ISU's interior offense. Hoiberg stressed having a big who could shoot to open up the lane for drivers and creating a 1v1 situation for a big man, and most college big men can beat a defender 1v1 down low. Georges certainly could beat just about anybody, so could Melvin down there, too. Kane had a heck of a post-up game and size, too, for that matter, particularly against little point guards that he could bully around. That ability is going to cascade throughout the rest of the defense, because if you find yourself in that situation and have to send help, you are leaving a man uncovered, leaving somebody streaking to the basket for a pass or a shooter on the perimeter (often that stretch big named Georges Niang) uncovered for a moment. That is all it takes.

With our situation, however, you want kind of the opposite -- you want to draw the defense inwards to clog the lane but open the outside. UVA comes to mind again, partially because that game was so important, because I respect Bennett's program, and because a friend of mine is a UVA graduate so we talk about this stuff rather often. They are famous for their "pack line" defense, which basically involves guarding only the ball on the perimeter and, otherwise with your other four, "packing it in" inside of the arc. That style works really well at taking away passing lanes, post-ups, and chances for driving that many teams thrive upon. They did *not* play the pack line against ISU in Chicago last year, however. They played, essentially, a press man-to-man, not letting our shooters have open looks, figuring that, if we were going to beat them, a hot night from three was going to be how, trusting Brogdon and their other bigs could contain Georges.

And they were absolutely right. It worked perfectly and, towards the end of the game, Prohm was just giving the ball to Georges at the top of the key and telling him to beat somebody 1v1 with everybody else in an iso set far away from the ball. Georges got 30 this way, but it wasn't near enough. Teams are basically doing a version of that against us now. They do not worry too much about us getting the ball inside on them, so they are staying tight on shooters. This limits the opportunities for reversals (the whole point of a reversal is to catch a defense out of position on a rotation... hard to do when they don't need to rotate much) and means our shooters are not getting many open, in-rhythm looks. Thomas, Jackson, and Mitrou-Long can knock it down when they are feeling it. We know this. But none are Curry or Klay who are so quick and can fake a defender out of position themselves and hit just about anything. They need help.

4. Mostly falls under #3.

I think and know we can play better than we have. I think there is even more we can do on defense, and the offense has opportunities to improve. But that UVA tape (well, gave, I was there, live) is burned into my memory as well as the beginning to this season. We're going to see game plans like these to mitigate our strengths. We just do not have much of an offensive post presence to "compact" a defense the same way you need shooters for spacing purposes. You need *space* so guys can make plays... you do not have much space when the opponent can confidently put their five on our five, not really worry about anybody getting beaten 1v1 much, or needing to worry much about help or positioning and rotations.

I would like us to start playing to those strengths to start, however. We will see if they can be neutralized if we actually start using them well.

 

[Gunnerclone]

The more you think about it, this is spot on. I'd be curious to the percentage of FG's that Niang scored/assisted on last year. I think we're seeing how much we relied on Niang to create (Nader in transition as well).

Our offenses were so efficient the past four years because we had a post player that could play outside. Simply put, we don't have that this year. That's a significant change in offense for all these guys. In the next month, I sure hope I'm looking back on this and wondering why I was so worried about this team.

It's not really that hard to figure out. We had two NBA draft picks that were offensive specialists on the same team. Sometimes the blue bloods don't even have that. That's why it's almost criminal the Prohm is going to try and go away from Hoiball this year when we need it the most. Say what you want about it sometimes the ball didn't move and we looked like **** in Hoiball but that's not what was supposed to happen.

I have no idea what we're doing on offense right now it looks like the play selection for my 4th grade SACC team.

 

[CyBobby]

It's not really that hard to figure out. We had two NBA draft picks that were offensive specialists on the same team. Sometimes the blue bloods don't even have that. That's why it's almost criminal the Prohm is going to try and go away from Hoiball this year when we need it the most. Say what you want about it sometimes the ball didn't move and we looked like **** in Hoiball but that's not what was supposed to happen.

I have no idea what we're doing on offense right now it looks like the play selection for my 4th grade SACC team.

4th Grade Team.....Now that's hiliarious Gunnerclone...Keep up the Great Postings my friend....lol