Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[cyatheart]

While I agree with this take completely, in another sense Warren did them a favor. At least they know where they stand, rather than having a false sense of security.

I think he's right, that comment and "source" was the nail in the coffin for the PAC 10. It's over. Probably the ACC too.

Just a matter of if the SEC is good where they are at and if ND jumps. But the corner schools can't let this drag out for a year, they have to move.

I would be getting really nervous if I were wake forest or Syracuse too.

 

[WhoISthis]

Or we will go reach out to the SEC? Would be a horrific cultural fit but the SEC would take them just as much as the big ten did.

Independent funded by ESPN. If you are paid by the same network, are you really independent? Adds value to both SEC and ACC.

FOX didn't need an ultimatum. I don't think the BIG did either. FOX wanted consolidation into the BIG just like ESPN wanted OUT in SEC.

 

[cyatheart]

Again warren didn’t name names, an annonamous source did and we have all seen how bad a lot of unnamed sources have been.

It's McMurphy though, it's a real guy. he was told what to say.

 

[Gunnerclone]

It's McMurphy though, it's a real guy. he was told what to say.

The “National College Football” guys usually have pretty rock solid sources, too. Kind of the NFL guys that break everything. They are tied in directly to the conference leadership/leagues.

You can see Stewart Mandel is on the outside looking in. He’s doing “what about” and “what if” articles and McMurphy is mouthpiecing for the B10 leadership.

 

[2speedy1]

Ehhh….ND draw I get.

I’m not sure Stanford is markedly different than UC Berkeley on academics, prestige, or *location*. Research in raw dollars arguably more so, but that is due to the associated medical school being UCSF (which has no undergraduate programs).

Being a public school (and a Land-grant university at that) probably serves as a bigger differentiator than anything other than the ND-bait thing…

Regardless, even if you want to quibble over the at best nominal advantages Stanford has in these areas, UC Berkeley absolutely moves the needle compared to the Big 10 at large. If these things matter, that is…

As far as tying themselves together, ehhh…maybe in the sense of OU/UT preserving their rivalry if they can. Hard to believe either would turn down the Big 10 if an offer was extended to only one.

Ok.
Im not saying Stanford is a huge value over Cal But it is more valuable than Cal... However any of these mean this is what I am talking about.

Stanford- Historic ND rivalry
Stanford-#10 in Research funding Rank vs. Cal #30 Per National Science Foundation Ranking
Stanford-#5 vs Cal #22 In USNews best colleges (even though I hate this ranking, every rank list I found had similar results except Forbes had Cal at #1 Stan at #4.)

Stanford and Cal have very similar Football program values from every list, being:
Sanford valued between #34-40 vs Cal valued between #40-44.

In CBS best in college sports list last year
Stanford ranked #41 vs Cal #93

Viewership last year:
Stanford ranked #46 vs Cal #76

How much any of these matter, how much any of these push any over the other, I dont know. Some of these definitely matter to the Big 10 more than the Big 12. Overall Stanford is more valuable to anyone more than Cal, to some more than others.

But this is how I base my opinions of each on.

 

[2speedy1]

Well on one hand we have confirmed reports from the schools and the big ten about what happened and on the other we have total speculation. Maybe it’s just my science brain coming through but I tend to lean on the confirmed reporting from the two parties instead of speculation.

"Confirmed" Ok So the guy spreading the rumor confirmed he spread the rumor.

Like the guy lying is going to admit hes lying. Do you really think Warren is going to say he reached out to them first if it would mean a lawsuit. No everyone talked to a lawyer and said hey we better agree on how this went down, and they are sticking to that story....and they are "confirming" it.

Do you also believe everything you read on the internet or see on the news?

 

[WhoISthis]

I dont know I have read anywhere that the SEC "wants" a 2nd Florida team. I have read that they are interested in FSU. No one says that is because they are the Florida team in the ACC. It is because of the overall value of the program. I have also heard some speculation of Miami to the SEC, but that is purely speculation. But all is about the program value, not specifically about being a "second" Florida team.

I have heard people say that they may be adverse to adding FSU and Miami both with already having Florida, and I have heard that the 3 might not all want the others in the SEC.

These Conferences are adding for increasing value, and not for the prospect of building a program up to a future value either. Hypothetical or not.

You missed the point. But i have been told by a former college president in FL that the SEC wants a second FL school. Are you familiar with the population and economic growth in that area? Don't get caught up in state lines- they want another school near those multiple huge markets, several of which do well in CFB ratings.

But the point is, what is FSU in 14 years and $800 million deficit to peers? Is it even worth adding?, FSU MUST get out of the GOR. But if they can't then the SEC would consider other options on how to extract value from the south. This is being kicked around as motivation to get a settlement on ACC GOR. ESPN and ACC schools have incentive to not let such decay occur

The P2 are kingmakers. They can appoint schools as P2 worthy, and they will quickly be P2 worthy. That is why Cal and some of those PAC schools are still on the BIG list. Different game than what the Big 12 looks for.

 

[2speedy1]

Or we will go reach out to the SEC? Would be a horrific cultural fit but the SEC would take them just as much as the big ten did.

That is the Fight I am waiting for. Please let the B1G reach out and take a SEC team. Please. Just Do it. I want that melt down to happen.

Go take Texas and Mizzou. Do it. I want that war. For no other reason than I want to see the chaos hit.

 

[besserheimerphat]

Autocorrect.

It was intended as “Ponch”. “Ponch” was a character on a very popular television show set in Southern California back when USC and UCLA were simultaneously relevant in football and basketball, respectively.

View attachment 101069

It was supposed to be "paunch." Relatable to B1G fans.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

That is the Fight I am waiting for. Please let the B1G reach out and take a SEC team. Please. Just Do it. I want that melt down to happen.

Go take Texas and Mizzou. Do it. I want that war. For no other reason than I want to see the chaos hit.

Oh I meant USC reaching out to the SEC as the ultimatum. Also to your other comment when both side confirm it no reason not to believe it. Also what lawsuit? You mean the same one everyone was saying would happen to OUT? Their is no lawsuit to be had here otherwise the schools that are getting crushed would have filed it.

 

[isucy86]

While I agree with this take completely, in another sense Warren did them a favor. At least they know where they stand, rather than having a false sense of security.

Warrens comments could be aimed at cutting the share future Pac12 teams receive if they join the Big10.

USC & UCLA supposedly joined receiving a full Big10 share immediately.

By de-stabilizing the Pac12 and encouraging 2 or more among UA, ASU, UU or CU to join the Big12- it could result in the Big10 only having to pay UW, OR, Cal, Stanford, etc partial shares.

 

[2speedy1]

You missed the point. But i have been told by a former college president in FL that the SEC wants a second FL school. Are you familiar with the population and economic growth in that area? Don't get caught up in state lines- they want another school near those multiple huge markets, several of which do well in CFB ratings.

But the point is, what is FSU in 14 years and $800 million deficit to peers? Is it even worth adding?, FSU MUST get out of the GOR. But if they can't then the SEC would consider other options on how to extract value from the south. This is being kicked around as motivation to get a settlement on ACC GOR. ESPN and ACC schools have incentive to not let such decay occur

The P2 are kingmakers. They can appoint schools as P2 worthy, and they will quickly be P2 worthy. That is why Cal and some of those PAC schools are still on the BIG list. Different game than what the Big 12 looks for.

I understand what you are saying. I think I had said similar recently. If the ACC schools dont find a way out of their horrible deal and the other conferences get better deals, which we already know the SEC and B1G will, the programs will fall so far behind they may not be worth adding to the P2.

They will have to be added to a stepping stone league. ie the P3 Big 12, to build to the level of the P2.
What we can hope is that the Big 12 can get a deal at least between the ACC and the P2 to be that, and at least be the next up.

The ACC in its current deal will be relegated. And if the Pac remains with 25-30M pay. they will be the same.

We need to be somewhere between the P2 and what the ACC/Pac are talking.

 

[StPaulCyclone]

Yep, when the package was switched to + they managed to get a cut also.

I assume they got paid for away games that appeared on +. I guess that makes sense…

 

[BCClone]

I assume they got paid for away games that appeared on +. I guess that makes sense…

Did we get paid for away games on the LHN?? Same deal. Home team gets the dough.

 

[isucy86]

The coastal elites would drop football before going to the SEC and the b1g is well aware of that.

Coastal elites like money too. If it came down to <$30M (Pac12) or $100M annually (Big10 or SEC), the coastal elites would settle for the SEC.

After all, who knows where CFB is really headed. Might as well head there from high ground.

 

[CascadeClone]

IMO the Big10 is waiting on ND.

If ND joins, the Big10 takes 3-5 more Pac12 teams. If ND doesn't join they take 2 more teams.

ND has stratosphere media rights value- maybe top 5. That can compensate for a group of schools whose value might be at or slightly below the projected average school payouts in the new Big10 contract.

Interesting how quiet Washington is during the realignment talk. I think they know they are Big10 bound.

The big question is how long does the Big10 wait on ND. Could it be a year? Or more?

I do think the Big10 would prefer to make one final group of additions instead of 2 at a time.

I agree, except i think its 1-3 plus ND not 3-5. Prob Stanford, Cal, and UW.

And if ND just cant be got then its 2 or 4. Oregon has a shot as #4.

That would put them at 20, waiting for their choice of 4 more ACC when that time comes.

None of which will include the Mountain 4.

 

[Cloneon]

Tell me the last time a P5 conference raided another P5 conference, then a few weeks later went back for more. What you’re saying doesn’t make any sense.

Dominoes as a strategy

 

[Jkclone15]

the ACC GOR ends (or close enough):

B1G adds Miami, Florida State, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech (not that confident about the last pick)

SEC adds Virginia, UNC, Clemson, Louisville

Big 12 adds Pitt, NC State, Virginia Tech, Syracuse

The SEC would add NC State or Virginia Tech before Louisville.

All your other takes are reasonable.

 

[Cloneon]

Oh I meant USC reaching out to the SEC as the ultimatum. Also to your other comment when both side confirm it no reason not to believe it. Also what lawsuit? You mean the same one everyone was saying would happen to OUT? Their is no lawsuit to be had here otherwise the schools that are getting crushed would have filed it.

And you were doing so well, The mere 'threat' of a lawsuit has played well into the B12's hands. So, 'lawsuit' was definitely in play.

 

[JUKEBOX]

Oof. Stew just got murdered here.

Yes it seems like the B1G commissioner is using McMurphy in an attempt to destabilize the Pac 12 further. I'm guessing to add a few of the members listed at a discount (partial shares for a number of years).

It seems like their strategy is to destabilize the Pac 12 leading the Mountain schools to make the rational decision to join the Big 12 or risk being left out.

I think the Big 12 initially could potentially take 2-4 schools. If we only take 2, I think that destabilizes the Pac 12 and then probably allows us to take another 2 at a discount potentially. If all 4 schools are onboard though, maybe we take them all in one swoop.