It's a pretty campus if I remember right was there in the 80s friend of mine went to grad school there.
Rank potential joiners to the Big 12
- Thread starter alexssdean12
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It's a pretty campus if I remember right was there in the 80s friend of mine went to grad school there.
My guess is the PAC and ACC (unhappily) stick together for this round and we dust off these lists around 2030, but just for fun:
Home Runs (that are never coming)
ND
FSU
Clemson
UNC
Miami
Oregon
Washington
I guess I can come up with scenarios where the bottom three don't have other options, but these schools are all no-brainers if they want in.
Definite Takes/Adds Value
VT - Would have the largest football stadium/attendance/fanbase/effective market (VA+DC) in the B12 if they joined. FB isn't good now, but they have a solid history and good ratings despite recent performance.
Louisville - Up and down in FB, but they have some pretty high highs, and are only behind FSU, Clemson, and Miami in ACC ratings. BB was a historic disaster this year, but historically they're a top 10-15 program. Built-in rivalry with Cincy.
Utah - I know, their fans are annoying, but unlike the other realistic PAC prospects they care about/are good at FB, and after all this their games vs BYU will be appointment TV.
Reasonable Adds/Netural-ish Value
Pitt - Poor man's Louisville. Nothing all that spectacular in FB/BB, but the rivalry with WVU is a plus.
NC State - Reminds me quite a bit of us actually, but more historical success and a bigger state.
ASU - Pretty decent FB history, and a huge enrollment and metro to draw from. Their recent trajectory doesn't inspire confidence though.
Arizona - Mediocre-to-bad FB mixed with pretty strong BB, and they're the second most popular school in a bigger state.
Virginia - Mediocre-to-bad FB mixed with pretty strong BB and they're the second most popular school in a bigger state. I know UVA gets all the B1G buzz, but if you take out academics and location I can't split them from AZ.
Colorado - I kind of like the idea of bringing the Buffs back, but their revenue sports have been struggling for a while now, and I don't think hitching wagons to Deion is going to end well.
GT - Would be a tier lower except for location. I know markets don't matter as much in a streaming world, and I know GT has a tiny share, but Atlanta is probably a top five college sports market, so let's take a flyer.
Stanford - Hard to rank. Probably a tier higher on value, but they're not at all aligned with what the B12 wants to be, and I don't see them coming.
Gonzaga? - I'm not big on the basketball-only schools idea. You lose stability if you add a bunch of schools with different priorities (see the Big East). But the Zags are enough of a unicorn that I'm at least lukewarm on them as a one-off if we expand that direction.
On the Fence
Duke - Also hard to rank. How do you weigh blue blood BB vs possibly the lowest FB potential of current P5 schools? A good question for the media partners, but I'm erring on the side of FB for now.
WSU - A school in a decent sized state with surprisingly strong FB ratings. I think they're underrated a bit, but geographically they're still on an island.
Syracuse - A less extreme version of Duke. I'm bearish on college FB ever becoming viable again in the Northeast.
Cal - For athletic purposes they're a poor man's Stanford.
Pass
OSU - Has WSU's drawbacks without the surprisingly high TV ratings.
BC - I don't see their FB reaching their previous heights again, and there's not much else there.
Wake - Decent in FB now, but historically not much to write home about, and a small fanbase.
UConn - Poor man's Duke. FB program is so bad and poorly supported it's disqualifying for me if it's an all-sports invite.
Memphis/Boise - I thought these were reasonable runners-up from the last round of expansion, but why reach now?
SDSU/etc. - See above, but with more drawbacks.
Home Runs (that are never coming)
ND
FSU
Clemson
UNC
Miami
Oregon
Washington
I guess I can come up with scenarios where the bottom three don't have other options, but these schools are all no-brainers if they want in.
Definite Takes/Adds Value
VT - Would have the largest football stadium/attendance/fanbase/effective market (VA+DC) in the B12 if they joined. FB isn't good now, but they have a solid history and good ratings despite recent performance.
Louisville - Up and down in FB, but they have some pretty high highs, and are only behind FSU, Clemson, and Miami in ACC ratings. BB was a historic disaster this year, but historically they're a top 10-15 program. Built-in rivalry with Cincy.
Utah - I know, their fans are annoying, but unlike the other realistic PAC prospects they care about/are good at FB, and after all this their games vs BYU will be appointment TV.
Reasonable Adds/Netural-ish Value
Pitt - Poor man's Louisville. Nothing all that spectacular in FB/BB, but the rivalry with WVU is a plus.
NC State - Reminds me quite a bit of us actually, but more historical success and a bigger state.
ASU - Pretty decent FB history, and a huge enrollment and metro to draw from. Their recent trajectory doesn't inspire confidence though.
Arizona - Mediocre-to-bad FB mixed with pretty strong BB, and they're the second most popular school in a bigger state.
Virginia - Mediocre-to-bad FB mixed with pretty strong BB and they're the second most popular school in a bigger state. I know UVA gets all the B1G buzz, but if you take out academics and location I can't split them from AZ.
Colorado - I kind of like the idea of bringing the Buffs back, but their revenue sports have been struggling for a while now, and I don't think hitching wagons to Deion is going to end well.
GT - Would be a tier lower except for location. I know markets don't matter as much in a streaming world, and I know GT has a tiny share, but Atlanta is probably a top five college sports market, so let's take a flyer.
Stanford - Hard to rank. Probably a tier higher on value, but they're not at all aligned with what the B12 wants to be, and I don't see them coming.
Gonzaga? - I'm not big on the basketball-only schools idea. You lose stability if you add a bunch of schools with different priorities (see the Big East). But the Zags are enough of a unicorn that I'm at least lukewarm on them as a one-off if we expand that direction.
On the Fence
Duke - Also hard to rank. How do you weigh blue blood BB vs possibly the lowest FB potential of current P5 schools? A good question for the media partners, but I'm erring on the side of FB for now.
WSU - A school in a decent sized state with surprisingly strong FB ratings. I think they're underrated a bit, but geographically they're still on an island.
Syracuse - A less extreme version of Duke. I'm bearish on college FB ever becoming viable again in the Northeast.
Cal - For athletic purposes they're a poor man's Stanford.
Pass
OSU - Has WSU's drawbacks without the surprisingly high TV ratings.
BC - I don't see their FB reaching their previous heights again, and there's not much else there.
Wake - Decent in FB now, but historically not much to write home about, and a small fanbase.
UConn - Poor man's Duke. FB program is so bad and poorly supported it's disqualifying for me if it's an all-sports invite.
Memphis/Boise - I thought these were reasonable runners-up from the last round of expansion, but why reach now?
SDSU/etc. - See above, but with more drawbacks.
Based on recent rumors its sure seems like we better put Colorado and Arizona at the top of the list because if there is anything to whats out there they appear to be on their way to the Big 12. Personally I don't have any issue starting with those 2 schools. Arizona bring a great BB program and tradition and they have had some football succcess in the past and it just opens more recruiting in that state which we've had success with in the past. Bringing Colorado back is kind of cool and who knows what Deion is going to do there, it will at least be entertaining and bring some eyeballs. After those two maybe just sit tight and see what other PAC schools might want to jump ship and see what happens with the ACC.
Feels like this will be what we see at some point in the near future I think.
Central Florida
Cincinnati
Connecticut
WVU
Iowa State
Kansas
K-State
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Baylor
TCU
Houston
Arizona
Arizona State
BYU
Colorado
Central Florida
Cincinnati
Connecticut
WVU
Iowa State
Kansas
K-State
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Baylor
TCU
Houston
Arizona
Arizona State
BYU
Colorado
CO and AZ seem like top of the list at the moment. Assuming those two both come over, do Utah and ASU really stick with the PAC? It just seems suicidal at that point.
The more I think about adding UConn, the less I hate it, particularly in light of positioning the B12 as a basketball powerhouse. They could even up the numbers if ASU or Utah come to their senses, but one decides to go down with the PAC ship. That said, I prefer to wait and bring them board as part of the next media deal. Same goes for Gonzaga and any other BB-only (or BB first) options).
All of this depends entirely on Fox & ESPN ponying up for the additions to keep them revenue neutral, at a minimum. If bringing WA and OR meant more money for ISU, I'm fine bringing them on board knowing that they very well might only be here through the 2030-31.
I know people are worried about Oregon and Washington leaving, if they some how end up in the Big12. “The Big12 is done being poached”. There very well could be a new team who rises up and wins multiple Big12 championships and has some playoff success. That(or those) to be determined team(s) could be subject to poaching in the future. Or hopefully lead to closing the media gap instead.
UCONN isn’t a terrible add, but it’s a backup plan for a reason. Obviously great basketball, but who knows what their football team could develop into with more funding and being in the Big12 rather than independent or BigEast before that.
Im glad im here to add some Eastern football insight.
If Big 12 could only take 4:
1. Miami (they are not going anywhere). Neither BIG or SEC want a small private school. Big 12 cant be as picky. name brand/location
2. VT-probably should be ahead of Miami. Getting into Virginia with a solid top 25 program would be a steal. VT is more likely to end up in the SEC than Miami.
3. NC State-good football, but better state. Getting into north carolina would be huge for next media deal.
4. Pitt-big city, good recruiting state, great football history with a national championship in my lifetime.
Meh. Louisville has the city of louisville and that's it for fans. That is Kentucky's state.
5-9 in no particular order, colo., AZ., Arz state, utah.
If Big 12 could only take 4:
1. Miami (they are not going anywhere). Neither BIG or SEC want a small private school. Big 12 cant be as picky. name brand/location
2. VT-probably should be ahead of Miami. Getting into Virginia with a solid top 25 program would be a steal. VT is more likely to end up in the SEC than Miami.
3. NC State-good football, but better state. Getting into north carolina would be huge for next media deal.
4. Pitt-big city, good recruiting state, great football history with a national championship in my lifetime.
Meh. Louisville has the city of louisville and that's it for fans. That is Kentucky's state.
5-9 in no particular order, colo., AZ., Arz state, utah.
There are a few downsides:
- They could drag out negotiations on the 2031 on beyond media deal if a B10/SEC invite isn't already on the table (I suspect that's at least part of why the PAC is still negotiating theirs).
- If they join the B12 and finish in the top 3 in FB consistently, they're keeping another B12 program from rising. This could also work against the B12 for the next media deal should they get a B10/SEC invite.
- If they do get poached in 2031 (or 2036), it doesn't help the public perception of the B12, particularly if they've been two of the most successful programs in the conference. At the same time, if that happens, the B12 is in exactly the same place they are right now without them.
