Sounds right.
We have gotten premium players from the transfer market, but not necessarily premium recruits. Twocoach is full of his normal ignorance in hoping that the transfer market will be less kind to ISU in the future. Fred has rebuilt the program in large part by having success with guys that most of the top programs thought were not worth it for one reason or another (average talent, baggage, 2 for 1). The other large parts have been due to circumstance (prior relationship, fear of flying)- which is always big in any type of recruiting. This will not change, and certainly is not some systemic advantage we had that is going away like twocoach hopes.
Now that Fred has more to sell and there continues to be more transfers, it is reasonable to expect ISU to have just as much success, if not more, in transfer recruiting. Elites may start to devote more efforts in recruiting the Tarik Black transfers or the Ryan Anderson's, but they are not going to be lining up for the Chris Allen, Chris Babb, or even Kane's. To think otherwise ignores the huge opportunity cost at places like UK or UNC. However, the elites going after more transfers (especially redshirts), will help push down more elite high school recruits, just as ISU's profile goes up.