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Non-ISU odds of Big 12 championship

cyrocksmypants

cyrocksmypants

Well-Known Member
Dec 29, 2008
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We’ve seen the breakdown for ISU of what needs to happen or not happen to clinch (I’ve already bought my tickets, plane ticket and booked my hotel, so I feel pretty confident in us there).

But what about potential opponents? Let’s assume we win against WVU. I assume OU has the most likely chance of being our opponent by just winning again? What scenarios have to play out for OSU to get in against us?
 
cyrocksmypants said:
We’ve seen the breakdown for ISU of what needs to happen or not happen to clinch (I’ve already bought my tickets, plane ticket and booked my hotel, so I feel pretty confident in us there).

But what about potential opponents? Let’s assume we win against WVU. I assume OU has the most likely chance of being our opponent by just winning again? What scenarios have to play out for OSU to get in against us?
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OU has to royally poop the bed. I would shocked if their sheets don’t stay clean. They’ve been keeping a very tidy house.
 
CYCLNST8 said:
I would assume it’s as simple as Okie Lite winning out and West Virginia beating the Sooners. Which would be preferable as I like our chances in a rubber match with the ‘Pokes.
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Yes. Assuming ISU over WVU, OU needs to lose at least one game (WVU or Baylor) and OSU needs to win out. If either team has 2 games cancelled, by my math, it’s possible they may not be eligible (depending on total games cancelled throughout the conference).
 
I have the most confidence in OU with how they've looked.

I can easily see OSU losing this weekend by a touchdown or two. Their defense is cashed out.
 
JM4CY said:
For whatever reason, OSU clearly played their best game of the year against us.
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They looked really fresh and crisp that game and lately it's hard to convince anyone that they really had a nice defense.
 
cyrocksmypants said:
It’s the only game they had pretty much everyone important fully healthy.
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This. For the second year in a row. Last year, their stud WR was out for the rest of the year after our game.

OSU does not scare me at the moment. Unfortunately, OU is as we expected - I believe CW said at the time that he'd rather play OU early in the year than late... well, looks like we'll probably get to do both this year. I'm not saying we can't win that game, but OU will be better than when we played them the first time around.
 
nrg4isu said:
This. For the second year in a row. Last year, their stud WR was out for the rest of the year after our game.

OSU does not scare me at the moment. Unfortunately, OU is as we expected - I believe CW said at the time that he'd rather play OU early in the year than late... well, looks like we'll probably get to do both this year. I'm not saying we can't win that game, but OU will be better than when we played them the first time around.
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I’ll go into OU hopeful but not expecting a win. If it was OSU, I don’t see any reason why I shouldn’t expect we’d win that game.
 
Pat said:
Yes. Assuming ISU over WVU, OU needs to lose at least one game (WVU or Baylor) and OSU needs to win out. If either team has 2 games cancelled, by my math, it’s possible they may not be eligible (depending on total games cancelled throughout the conference).
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I agree with all of this. Note that every cancellation is essentially a win for OU and OSU since the conference looks only at the loss column when ranking teams.

The conference requires each team in the championship game to have played no fewer than the average number of conference games played (rounded to the nearest whole number) minus 1. In other words:

If one or two games are cancelled, the average number of games played is 8.8 or 8.6, which both round up to 9. So you must play at least 8 to be in the championship game.

If three or more games are cancelled, the average number of games played is 8.4 or less, which rounds down to 8. So you must play at least 7 to be in the championship game.

As a result, there's really no way for OU or OSU to miss the championship game due to having too many games cancelled UNLESS either one has both games cancelled AND zero other games are cancelled.
 
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