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MU v. ISU - Atomic Teeth

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Phenom

Member
Nov 14, 2008
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As promised, I've posted a somewhat statistical look, somewhat subjective look at this game on my site. It's pretty dimwitted, if I do say so myself.

Barking Carnival — Blog — Mizzou v. Cyclones - STMP

I'm still pretty confident that Mizzou will move the ball well. Most of Mizzou's turnovers have come when Gabbert gets pressured and ISU isn't going to get much pressure on him. I also think Arnaud will have to beat Mizzou as ISU won't be able to run the ball as well as normal. So, that's the short version. Check out the long version. And feel free to make comments telling me where I'm wrong.
 
Phenom, I agree with your final prediction and your analysis seems pretty sound to me. However, I will contend with you on one point:

The Des Moines Register submits its five ways to beat the Tigers. These are:
– Contain Danario Alexander
– Score More Points (DMR means more points than usual, not more points than the Tigers, but that’s, of course, a good way to win)
– Continue to “D” it up
– Own the Red Zone
– Get Robinson going
Click to expand...

You incorrectly assume that the DMR meant more points than usual. They do in fact mean "score more points than the other team" because that is the caliber of journalism we expect from that "publication."

btw, do you know Roger "Tuff as Rain" Sprague?
 
I was giving DMR too much credit, huh? That's funny. I thought about making fun of the "score more points" comment, comparing it to Mizzou's color commentator who is known for obvious statements, but decided it was clearly not what DMR meant.

I don't know Roger Sprague. Who is he?
 
Phenom said:
I don't know Roger Sprague. Who is he?
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Pretty much the greatest internet message board poster, ever. He's Tuff as Rain, a Tuff Tiger fan for life and can be spotted with his Gendower Banner.

Mr. Spague is the epitome of legends. His legacy will forever be remembered at CycloneFanatic.com and we hope someday - he will return to bestow us with his presence.
 
Roger is an internet legend. He showed up on this board a couple years ago in the middle of the season (long before we played MU), made 2 posts, then vanished forever. We eventually discovered that he put in appearances on OU, NU, and other boards, usually under the moniker TuffTiger. He gave us the Glendower Banner and rabbits with pancake hats.

Just wondered if you knew him.
 
The one thing I'll ask (good write up, btw. Nice to see stats instead of just fan prognostications).

But has MU played a team with a top RB and a "run first" QB like Arnaud? At least he is one, or close to being one, IMO.

I'll agree that his throwing this year is sub-par at best. But he still is very dangerous with his feet. Sounds like Baylor gave you fits? That was after their top QB went down, correct?

It's a challenge for D, particularly the linebackers and safeties, to drop into coverage when AA drops back, and still contain his run when he does take off.
 
glendowerbanner.jpg


someone should blow this up and take it to the MU game.
 
Phenom said:
It's pretty dimwitted, if I do say so myself.
Click to expand...

I am not going to call it dimwitted, and it is probably as well thought out as any other prediction. But as we all know, this is the Big 12 North and trying to predict games on paper is an entertaining, but fruitless exercise.

Just my $0.02 if you are a serious blogger. When you fill your "analysis" with a bunch of statements like this,

- Blaine’s giant arm is pretty useful there
- Gabbert is excellent
- big plays come raining down.
- how to contain Danario because, well, everyone knows that’s impossible
- Grant Ressel doesn’t miss.
- Robinson will not get going
- confident in knowing Mizzou has the superior athletes
- no way the Tigers look past the Cyclones

And then dismiss the opposition with statements like this, "That’s pretty nice for the Cyclones. Is there a skill that enables the Cyclones to get red zone turnovers? I doubt it."

Don't be surprised when no one takes you seriously.
 
DaddyMac said:
But has MU played a team with a top RB and a "run first" QB like Arnaud? At least he is one, or close to being one, IMO.
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Juice Williams and Colin Kapernick. I'd say Mizzou's crowning achievement in rush defense is holding Nevada to 200 yards. They average 350 and their top three runners average more than 7 yards/carry. Juice and Colin were pretty well contained.

That's good point though - Austen does bring more to the table.
 
1100011CS said:
If we're going to play that game - remove the Iowa game and it's back up there.
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I use only conference game stats, so the Iowa game isn't there to remove. It's customary to account for outliers. A +8 T/O game is an outlier - I'm not saying ISU didn't deserve that and is not capable of taking the ball away plenty. Just noting the outlier.
 
Phenom...what is the ticket (scalper/availability) situation over there in Columbia? Plenty to go around? Still trying to plan on going over there, but it is getting down to the last minute so we are trying to pick up tickets around the stadium.
 
Phenom said:
I use only conference game stats, so the Iowa game isn't there to remove. It's customary to account for outliers. A +8 T/O game is an outlier - I'm not saying ISU didn't deserve that and is not capable of taking the ball away plenty. Just noting the outlier.
Click to expand...

My bad. Guess I should check *my* facts before posting. Anyway, I don't have high hopes for Saturday but I will be there cheering for another NU 'outlier':yes:
 
Jarrods79 said:
Phenom...what is the ticket (scalper/availability) situation over there in Columbia? Plenty to go around? Still trying to plan on going over there, but it is getting down to the last minute so we are trying to pick up tickets around the stadium.
Click to expand...

same here
 
CycloneWarning said:
I am not going to call it dimwitted, and it is probably as well thought out as any other prediction. But as we all know, this is the Big 12 North and trying to predict games on paper is an entertaining, but fruitless exercise.

Just my $0.02 if you are a serious blogger. When you fill your "analysis" with a bunch of statements like this,

- Blaine’s giant arm is pretty useful there
- Gabbert is excellent
- big plays come raining down.
- how to contain Danario because, well, everyone knows that’s impossible
- Grant Ressel doesn’t miss.
- Robinson will not get going
- confident in knowing Mizzou has the superior athletes
- no way the Tigers look past the Cyclones

And then dismiss the opposition with statements like this, "That’s pretty nice for the Cyclones. Is there a skill that enables the Cyclones to get red zone turnovers? I doubt it."

Don't be surprised when no one takes you seriously.
Click to expand...

I am going to have to agree with CycloneWarning on this one. I don't feel your analysis was bad, but a little juvenile in your writing. Try to review opinions and instead of using phrases like giant arm, say Gabbert has shown his ability to perform in this situation, or instead of Danario being impossible to stop, state that no one has been able to stop him.

Just some constructive criticism.
 
CycloneWarning said:
I am not going to call it dimwitted, and it is probably as well thought out as any other prediction. But as we all know, this is the Big 12 North and trying to predict games on paper is an entertaining, but fruitless exercise.

Just my $0.02 if you are a serious blogger. When you fill your "analysis" with a bunch of statements like this,

- Blaine’s giant arm is pretty useful there
- Gabbert is excellent
- big plays come raining down.
- how to contain Danario because, well, everyone knows that’s impossible
- Grant Ressel doesn’t miss.
- Robinson will not get going
- confident in knowing Mizzou has the superior athletes
- no way the Tigers look past the Cyclones

And then dismiss the opposition with statements like this, "That’s pretty nice for the Cyclones. Is there a skill that enables the Cyclones to get red zone turnovers? I doubt it."

Don't be surprised when no one takes you seriously.
Click to expand...

What's a serious blogger?

People seem to take me seriously. Way more seriously than I take myself.

I don't even know what you're getting worked up about. To take them one by one, Blaine's giant arm is useful in getting big plays. How is that wrong? He throws the ball deep a lot. Gabbert is excellent - hey, I called Robinson quality. Should I take that back? Mizzou gets lots of big plays - so what that I said "raining down?" Danario comment was a nod to his greatness - I can't help that. You're right - Grant Ressel has missed one field goal. He's made 18. He's our red zone GOD. So what? I explained why I thought Robinson would not get going using stats - and I was clever enough to put it in the language of the DMR, which I was referring to throughout. I don't think the Tigers will look past the Cyclones because the Cyclones are too good to look past. Am I wrong?

And, please let me know if there is a separate skill for forcing T/O in the red zone. That sounds like a clutch hitter, which doesn't exist.

I might be an idiot, but your points re the analysis make no sense.
 
Jarrods79 said:
Phenom...what is the ticket (scalper/availability) situation over there in Columbia? Plenty to go around? Still trying to plan on going over there, but it is getting down to the last minute so we are trying to pick up tickets around the stadium.
Click to expand...

That won't be a problem. There are always a lot of people selling tickets outside the tunnel leading into the stadium. If you're there around game time, you should be able to get tickets for face value or a little less.
 
"Austen Arnaud will have to play extremely well for ISU to win. That’s not impossible, but not probable. His passer ratings the last two games are barely over 100. He’s completing just 55% of his passes this year. I just don’t see ISU scoring enough points to win this game."

This is a key question mark. Which Arnaud will show up? He has been up and down throwing this year, and not as effective throwing as last year, especially the latter half of the year. Two key questions: 1) How is his hand? Those last two games were coming off the injury, so hopefully that is better. More importantly, with another week of practice and taking snaps, hopefully he is back closer to midseason form. 2) Which offensive line will show up? At times the ISU line has looked dominate, and at others, such as against the CU pass rush last week, they looked porous.
 
BooneCy said:
I am going to have to agree with CycloneWarning on this one. I don't feel your analysis was bad, but a little juvenile in your writing. Try to review opinions and instead of using phrases like giant arm, say Gabbert has shown his ability to perform in this situation, or instead of Danario being impossible to stop, state that no one has been able to stop him.

Just some constructive criticism.
Click to expand...

Seriously? I am writing for fun - I will use "giant arm" when explaining that Gabbert throws deep all the time from now until I die. Anyway, your suggestions doesn't even explain anything (is the ability good or bad, his ability to do what?). I am not a journalist for pete's sake.

I was in a hurry today or there would have been porn and pop culture references galore. I'm just having fun - I'm not trying to win a Pulitzer. You guys need to lighten up.
 
We need a vomiting smiley, this is pretty homer-ish.

It's very hard to write both objectively and subjectively at the same time.

phenom said:
DMR’s call for D’ing it up is pretty much a call for getting turnovers. Yeah, we don’t want that to happen.
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"we don't want that to happen", might want to stay away from we, I, you, me, your statements.

Aside from this being a good matchup for the Tigers, I am also confident in knowing Mizzou has the superior athletes. That always helps.
Click to expand...
This sentence and paragraph do not flow from the previous paragraph talking about ISU's scoring offense.
 
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