I also made a bet....
- Thread starter clonefan1
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Betting that they lose ALL four of those game was probably a dumb bet. Not the worst that you could have made, but too risky.
Historically Big 10/11 teams are overrated. Ohio State is typically, Michigan used to be annually, Penn State is usually, and anybody remember Iowa in 2005?
I think the big thing for Iowa this year is they have these teams on the road and they don't have SG to just turn and hand the ball to. Stanzi is going to have to do something and on the road in some very hostile environments it will be interesting to see how he does. I think after we see how he handles his first test in Ames will tell you right away how your bet is going to go. Personally I think he struggles without his safety blanket (SG).
Your analysis is generally sound, however you're leaving out one very important factor in the hawkeye's favor.....you're forgetting about the power of the neck beard.
I think Iowa loses 3 of those 4, but not all 4.
I also think they lose to us and 1 at home to finish 7-5 and probably make the nat'l championship still.
I also think they lose to us and 1 at home to finish 7-5 and probably make the nat'l championship still.
Not a dumb bet, but it's more likely they pull at least one of those out, probably either Wisco or MSU. Doubt we have much of a chance at OSU, and PSU is a longshot. I think MSU will compete for #3 in the conference, so winning there won't be easy either. Wisco's been a dumpster fire lately, probably the best chance for an Iowa road win out of those four.
I hope you got more than even money. Sure they can lose all four but even if they're a 4-1 underdog in all 4 games, basic probability says they're better than even money to win one of the four.
I think a reasonable bet would be:
at OSU (<1% chance of winning)
at PSU (30% chance of winning)
at MSU (35% chance of winning)
at Wisconsin (50% chance of winning)
Edit: side note, Kirk Ferentz is 0-4 at Michigan State, 0-3 at Ohio State, 2-3 at Wisconsin, and 3-1 at Penn State)
It works out to about a 25% chance of Iowa losing all 4, so I'd be looking for the other guy to put up more than $60 to my $20.
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Oddly enough Monty appears to possibly be partially correct here. The key lies in the accuracy of the a priori probabilities. As a Hawkeye fan, I concede that I'm certainly a bit biased, however, here's my take on the chances:
at tOSU (10% chance of winning)
at PSU (30% chance of winning)
at MSU (50% chance of winning)
at Wisconsin (70% chance of winning)
By my estimate, it works out to be about a 10% chance of Iowa losing all 4. Thus, just as Monty indicated ... I hope you got more than even money.
@ Wisconsin is nearly a lock IMO. We know Iowa will have a good/great defense, and Wisconsin's will be horrible....they lost the only two impact players on their defense last season (OLB/MLB), and their defense was bad last year. In addition to losing their best two players on D, they also lose 3/4ths of their DL and their #1 CB....further, Bielema just suspended both their starting safeties for an undisclosed amount of time for undisclosed reasons.....so their D will even be worse off for that.
To top off all of their defensive woes, they also lose 3/5ths of their OL (and listening to Badger fans, the 09 OL won't be very deep), and still have Dustin Sherer at QB (Sherer ='s Jake Christiansen wannabe).
Wisconsin has a charmin soft schedule in 09, but I still wouldn't be surprised to see them go 5-7 or 6-6...Bielema has lost that team.
You made a bad bet.
To top off all of their defensive woes, they also lose 3/5ths of their OL (and listening to Badger fans, the 09 OL won't be very deep), and still have Dustin Sherer at QB (Sherer ='s Jake Christiansen wannabe).
Wisconsin has a charmin soft schedule in 09, but I still wouldn't be surprised to see them go 5-7 or 6-6...Bielema has lost that team.
You made a bad bet.
Just a scheduling quirk - Iowa also plays Northwestern at Kinnick for the second season in a row.
Has something to do with the conference re-setting the scheduling cycle, basically starting over. Not sure exactly, but I think that's what's behind it.
Both guys were arguably in contention to start ... however, neither guy was "THE" starter at his respective position.
You are probably screwed. They will lose the OSU and PSU game, but I think Wiscy is where you will go down. Iowa always plays Wiscy tough, and as others have pointed out, the Badgers are down.
Also, I don't know when the game is, but MSU always seems to fade late in the season, so if it is a later game I would take iowa in that one too.
Also, I don't know when the game is, but MSU always seems to fade late in the season, so if it is a later game I would take iowa in that one too.
I never, ever bet on the Hawkeyes. They'll surprise you. For example, I had a friend who wanted me to go in on a lock, take-it-to-the-bank, lead-pipe-cinch bet a couple of years ago involving the Hawks. "No way the Hawks lose this game or don't cover the spread," he told me.
So I gave him $100.
Guess what? Iowa loses to Western Michigan the last game of the season at home with bowl trip on the line.
I also have never, ever bet on Iowa losing. I don't like to do it. It's sort of an "State of Iowa" pride thing with me.
I'm not overly thrilled when Iowa wins, and I don't go out of my way to cheer for them, but I have a hard time betting against any team from Iowa.
So I gave him $100.
Guess what? Iowa loses to Western Michigan the last game of the season at home with bowl trip on the line.
I also have never, ever bet on Iowa losing. I don't like to do it. It's sort of an "State of Iowa" pride thing with me.
I'm not overly thrilled when Iowa wins, and I don't go out of my way to cheer for them, but I have a hard time betting against any team from Iowa.
Cyrocks -
Sorry man, but that wasn't a very wise bet. Iowa had failed to put together a single complete game that entire season. There was no way that Iowa was a lock to win the WMU game.
Don't get me wrong, I thought that Iowa would likely win the game ... however, I'm sad to say that I wasn't exactly surprised by the outcome of that game either. WMU has a fine coach and they had personnel who were capable of giving Iowa's D troubles ... contrary to what most uninformed Hawkeye fans thought. On top of that, WMU traditionally has one of the better Ds in the MAC ... so you know that their coaching on D is pretty darn solid.
In fact, some of the mismatches that WMU presented are some of the same ones that ISU might enjoy against Iowa too. WMU had a big, physical, and talented WR in Simmons (ISU has Hamilton), WMU had a talented RB who was very solid contributer in the passing game (ISU has ARob), and WMU had a very good play-making QB in Hiller (ISU has Arnaud).
Thus, I wouldn't bet for Iowa to cover the spread against ISU either ....