Here is my annual, too long hype-train reminder PSA and what I consider to be realistic expectations for the season.
This has nothing to do with Chris or Brent’s Podcasts – their analysis is always very informative and level-headed.
I have said for 17 years on here that there is a perfectly scheduled hype cycle. Doesn’t matter how bad/good the past season was or who we lost/gain, the hype cycle stays the same. It’s inevitable and part of human nature. We all want the best and set our expectations accordingly, sometimes without intention. And it’s not “bad”, it just helps to understand why some are seen as optimistic and some pessimistic at different points in time.
January to March – some pessimistic, some realistic expectations for the upcoming season.
April/May – rumors and rumblings of standout players, transfers in increase expectations a notch.
June – a bit of realism settles in due to lack of in-depth team activities.
July – rumors and statements about position groups, depth, and a few standout players increase expectations 2 notches.
August – hype train hits full speed and expectations increase another 2-3 notches.
Mid-August to season start – sky high expectations rather than a balanced assessment of who we gained/lost, how each player performed last season, how much growth a single player can truly gain in an offseason, etc. Anybody that doesn’t share those expectations gets labeled a pessimist (myself included). Again, this is natural and isn’t “bad”.
Season progresses and people start reaching for pitchforks when their expectations aren’t met. Pessimism, frustration, and anger sets in. Emotions cause chaos, game day threads are unbearable. People that hadn’t bought into the hype train and better predicted realistic expectations work to pick those people up off the floor and brighten their spirits.
I’ve always said – never listen to any hype, especially when stated as broadly as a whole position’s potential. Look at how each game went the prior year to determine where the specific strengths and weaknesses were. Anticipate realistic growth potential and evaluate what the new recruits/transfers bring in – keeping in mind freshmen have large growing pains.
Last year is a great example. We lost a lot of very close games, most in the margins. Knowing that our coaching style is to keep games close, you have to dig into why we lost each of those games. OL blocking, ST, RB injuries, TE injuries and lack of separation, WR lack of separation and route trees, offensive play calling and predictability, etc.
Then you factor in players we lost/gained. We somewhat ignored the Portal so most new talent are true freshmen. A net loss of roughly 2 key defensive players, but in positions we have good depth at. We lost our standout receiver but have some potential young talent in both WR and TE rooms – TE especially. RB we gain health and a few new youngsters with high ceilings. OL missed out on Portal targets so growth, strength, and fundamentals are going to be the difference.
Finally, you must look at coaching. With changes on Offense and Special Teams, there are unknowns. One thing we know for certain is that while the offense will still be fully in the mold of Campbell’s philosophy, the play calling and situational adjustments can only get better. Likewise, a severe lack of development of skill positions and the offensive line has plagued the team for years. We must assume the coaching changes will impact that for the better, but you can only expect so much in one offseason.
Personally, when I look at everything on my scratchpad, I see a year likely in the 5-7 win range. If we win in the margins like our Fiesta Bowl season, it’s conceivable our defense and an improved offense can drag us to 8 wins. I think that is a stretch given the tough schedule, youth we have, and the lost development we’re now making up for. Anything less than 5 wins would be a disaster on the recruiting trail. 5 wins would still hurt a ton. 6 wins is most likely if you consider the tossup games as 50/50. 7 wins if we make some good strides with offensive development (OL, WR, TE) consistency.
No matter what, try to remember to enjoy the season. There will always be ups and downs, try not to overreact to either polar end.
This has nothing to do with Chris or Brent’s Podcasts – their analysis is always very informative and level-headed.
I have said for 17 years on here that there is a perfectly scheduled hype cycle. Doesn’t matter how bad/good the past season was or who we lost/gain, the hype cycle stays the same. It’s inevitable and part of human nature. We all want the best and set our expectations accordingly, sometimes without intention. And it’s not “bad”, it just helps to understand why some are seen as optimistic and some pessimistic at different points in time.
January to March – some pessimistic, some realistic expectations for the upcoming season.
April/May – rumors and rumblings of standout players, transfers in increase expectations a notch.
June – a bit of realism settles in due to lack of in-depth team activities.
July – rumors and statements about position groups, depth, and a few standout players increase expectations 2 notches.
August – hype train hits full speed and expectations increase another 2-3 notches.
Mid-August to season start – sky high expectations rather than a balanced assessment of who we gained/lost, how each player performed last season, how much growth a single player can truly gain in an offseason, etc. Anybody that doesn’t share those expectations gets labeled a pessimist (myself included). Again, this is natural and isn’t “bad”.
Season progresses and people start reaching for pitchforks when their expectations aren’t met. Pessimism, frustration, and anger sets in. Emotions cause chaos, game day threads are unbearable. People that hadn’t bought into the hype train and better predicted realistic expectations work to pick those people up off the floor and brighten their spirits.
I’ve always said – never listen to any hype, especially when stated as broadly as a whole position’s potential. Look at how each game went the prior year to determine where the specific strengths and weaknesses were. Anticipate realistic growth potential and evaluate what the new recruits/transfers bring in – keeping in mind freshmen have large growing pains.
Last year is a great example. We lost a lot of very close games, most in the margins. Knowing that our coaching style is to keep games close, you have to dig into why we lost each of those games. OL blocking, ST, RB injuries, TE injuries and lack of separation, WR lack of separation and route trees, offensive play calling and predictability, etc.
Then you factor in players we lost/gained. We somewhat ignored the Portal so most new talent are true freshmen. A net loss of roughly 2 key defensive players, but in positions we have good depth at. We lost our standout receiver but have some potential young talent in both WR and TE rooms – TE especially. RB we gain health and a few new youngsters with high ceilings. OL missed out on Portal targets so growth, strength, and fundamentals are going to be the difference.
Finally, you must look at coaching. With changes on Offense and Special Teams, there are unknowns. One thing we know for certain is that while the offense will still be fully in the mold of Campbell’s philosophy, the play calling and situational adjustments can only get better. Likewise, a severe lack of development of skill positions and the offensive line has plagued the team for years. We must assume the coaching changes will impact that for the better, but you can only expect so much in one offseason.
Personally, when I look at everything on my scratchpad, I see a year likely in the 5-7 win range. If we win in the margins like our Fiesta Bowl season, it’s conceivable our defense and an improved offense can drag us to 8 wins. I think that is a stretch given the tough schedule, youth we have, and the lost development we’re now making up for. Anything less than 5 wins would be a disaster on the recruiting trail. 5 wins would still hurt a ton. 6 wins is most likely if you consider the tossup games as 50/50. 7 wins if we make some good strides with offensive development (OL, WR, TE) consistency.
No matter what, try to remember to enjoy the season. There will always be ups and downs, try not to overreact to either polar end.
