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Formula for the postseason

D

Dolokaju

Active Member
Jun 8, 2006
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I was looking through the schedule and right now we are 3-0 with 12 more non-conference games(4 on the road). Then there is the 16 games in conference plus at least one in the tournament for a total of 32 games. As I see it, unless we totally collapse I think we end up 11-4 non-conference at worst. Then if we were to go 6-10 in the conference and lose the first round, the team is 17-15 which probably gets them in that College Invitational tourney. Now to be more optimistic, if we were to say only lose to Houston and Hawaii(or Iowa) we'd be 13-2. Perhaps things come together for the younger guys and we are 8-8 in the conference and go 1-1 in the tourney. All of a sudden, we're 22-11 and talking NCAA though the NIT would probably be more likely.

From the improvement I've seen over the last 3 games, I think we should put our expectations around 17-22 wins before post-season.

Am I a total whack job thinking this?:wink:
 
I think 16-19 wins is most likely. 12 nonconference, 4-7 in conference. I do think we'll be closer to 18-19 total wins. 20 wins is a stretch at this point.
 
I don't think your a total whack job, but there is going to be a time in this season where most or some of our freshmen hit the "wall". I hope if/when it comes they are able to battle through it. I think someone alluded to it best in another thread where she/he said luckily if 1 or 2 of our guys are having an off day, 1 or 2 other shooters are probably going to be having a good day. I like that about this years team. But then again, you know how ISU doesn't play as well as they could on the road...we do have some big games and even some of the weaker opponents could bust out that perfect game against us and we'll struggle to pull it out...that's what she said

In reality, we could easily be 13-2 in non-conference, but we could also be 9-6 depending on a lot of variables. It'll be interesting how this team gels over the next week and everything. Nothing better than watching these boys turn into men in just a few short weeks.
 
There are a lot of games up for grabs in the Big 12. Lets see what happens a bit longer with this team before we make crazy predictions. Like I have said before as of now the biggest problems of the past seem to be on their way to being corrected.
 
I wanna see this team play on the road first before I entertain postseason. Those shots seem to fall a little easier in front of the home folks. This team needs to get over the hump of losing to sub-par teams like UNI, Drake(not last years Drake but normal Drake), Houston, etc. Those are three games I've got a close eye on. Iowa will always be tough in Carver but other than those 4 games I don't see them having too many problems until conference season.
 
This may not help your cause, but I don't think you're off base at all. It's too early to see where the team is headed for sure, but they're showing hints that we haven't seen for a while of being a real solid, quality team, and an exciting one at that!

I'm willing to say that either postseason tournament is a possibility. Not a guarantee, but certainly possible.

If we end up in the NIT, I'd think we'd be hosting a game. That would be a blast to watch from the rafters!!

If the Big Dance, and we're nearby (like Omaha or Dayton. I haven't looked up the venues for this year), that would make a great road trip!!!

If it was somewhere further, maybe a nice use of a company bonus:yes:

With the combinations of heart, chemistry, shooting that we've seen, and the schedule that we have (including winnable games in conference. Thanks, Nebraska!), it's all possible. Now it's just a matter of seeing what does develop!
 
scottie33 said:
In reality, we could easily be 13-2 in non-conference, but we could also be 9-6 depending on a lot of variables. It'll be interesting how this team gels over the next week and everything. Nothing better than watching these boys turn into men in just a few short weeks.
Click to expand...

If we go 9-6 with the NC schedule we have, then we are nowhere near where we need to be in year 3 of a coaching staff.

I think we may only lose 3 games in the NC and we win 6-8 games in conference and hover around 20 wins. Unfortunately unless the Big 12 surprises people, 8-8 and 21-11 I don't think gets us into the NCAA tournament. Hell, K-State when 10-6 a few years back and didn't get in because of a terrible NC schedule.
 
cycloneworld said:
If we go 9-6 with the NC schedule we have, then we are nowhere near where we need to be in year 3 of a coaching staff.

I think we may only lose 3 games in the NC and we win 6-8 games in conference and hover around 20 wins. Unfortunately unless the Big 12 surprises people, 8-8 and 21-11 I don't think gets us into the NCAA tournament. Hell, K-State when 10-6 a few years back and didn't get in because of a terrible NC schedule.
Click to expand...

With the player turnover we've had, I don't think this is a usual "year 3" progression for the coaching staff. I think it's basically another "year 2". I really don't have any expectations of this team contending for the tournament. Getting to the NIT, getting some post-season experience, and showing improvement is what I'm looking for from this season.
 
cycloneworld said:
If we go 9-6 with the NC schedule we have, then we are nowhere near where we need to be in year 3 of a coaching staff.

I think we may only lose 3 games in the NC and we win 6-8 games in conference and hover around 20 wins. Unfortunately unless the Big 12 surprises people, 8-8 and 21-11 I don't think gets us into the NCAA tournament. Hell, K-State when 10-6 a few years back and didn't get in because of a terrible NC schedule.
Click to expand...

That's probably about right.
A ticket to the NCAAs would require a win over Kansas, Baylor, Texas or Oklahoma, and maybe more that one (to offset Houston Baptist).

Still, there's a chance. We get three of those at home. Get the place packed, enthused, and maybe Hilton Magic moves us back home to the tournament!
 
the big 12 won't get it's usual amount of teams in this year. We have a couple really good teams at the top and then it really drops off. So I think our chances in general are slimmer because of that. We may win a few more games this year but it might not be enough.

Add to that I have no expectation of us getting to the dance anyway. But it'll all depend on our guard play....it's gotta be improved drastically over last year.
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We gotta figure out how to beat UNI and Drake. Both teams are beatable and there's no excuse to lose to either. Mac's 0-7 vs the MVC, IIRC.
 
We only make it if we pull off a few upsets. I think we will do pretty good in the non-conference (1 or 2 losses) and can pull off 7 or 8 wins in conference w/a couple being against the likes of Oklahoma or Texas. If we don't pull some of those off then we could be on the outside looking in come March. NIT is still a good option and a big improvement over what we have been doing.
 
if ISU is 22-11 this year, they should get a 8 or 9 seed in the tourney. Not many teams with over 20 wins in the big 12 don't get in to the big dance. with that said, it won't happen. once again maybe next year.
 
scottie33 said:
I don't think your a total whack job, but there is going to be a time in this season where most or some of our freshmen hit the "wall". I hope if/when it comes they are able to battle through it. I think someone alluded to it best in another thread where she/he said luckily if 1 or 2 of our guys are having an off day, 1 or 2 other shooters are probably going to be having a good day. I like that about this years team. But then again, you know how ISU doesn't play as well as they could on the road...we do have some big games and even some of the weaker opponents could bust out that perfect game against us and we'll struggle to pull it out...that's what she said

In reality, we could easily be 13-2 in non-conference, but we could also be 9-6 depending on a lot of variables. It'll be interesting how this team gels over the next week and everything. Nothing better than watching these boys turn into men in just a few short weeks.
Click to expand...

The freshmen may hit a 'wall', but we have enough non-freshmen to compensate for that. Really, Ike and Ham seem to be the freshmen who are going to play meaningful minutes, with Buckley getting some time as well. However, even if any of those three hit the wall, we have other options.
 
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