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Detailed Statistical Analysis through 20 games

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allenj32

Member
Dec 4, 2011
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After the loss to Texas last night, my brother and I are dumbfounded by the personnel Hoiberg continues to play and why he thinks he has the right combination starting, coming off the bench, etc. Numbers don't lie and while intangibles do play a key role outside of the statistics, when it comes down to the cold hard facts, I cannot fathom why Tyrus still isn't starting, why Melvin continues to jack up 3s, and what Hoiberg sees in Scott playing as many minutes as he does.

As we all know, our non-conference strength of schedule was 155 and we don't have a notable win that passes the "eye-test". Now that we've moved into conference play, competition has stiffened and we now are seeing which players are "contenders" and "pretenders".

Lets take a look at the numbers to see who is most "efficient" and who should be playing based off of offensive statistics. We cannot take into account the intangibles, as we know they play a significant role, but stats are more measurable in terms of offensive performance. These stats definitely show who needs to be in the game down the stretch.

These statistics trend towards who plays the best based on minutes per game.

R. White - 29.7 minutes per game

1 point every 2m 13s; makes 5 out of 9.35 shots taken per game
takes a shot every 3m 10s; makes a shot every 6m 18s.
Makes 3.25 out of 6.35 free throws per game
Shoots a free throw every 4m 16s
1 rebound every 3m 7s
1 assist every 6m 40s
1 turnover every 7m 56s

We all know Royce is a stat stuffer. He leads us in everything, including turnovers. He needs to eliminate some of the silly mistakes and has been doing a better job in the past 10 games. He is our catalyst and he must carry us through February and March. Free throws have to be above 60% come February/March for us to win. He is shooting a measly 39% in conference from the line currently.

C. Allen - 29 minutes per game

1 point every 2m 23s; makes 3.65 out of 10.15 shots taken per game
takes a shot every 2m 51s; makes a shot every 7m
3 pointers: makes 2 out of 5.8 per game; shoots a 3 pointer every 5m
Makes 2.8 out of 3.5 free throws per game
shoots a free throw every 8m 20s
1 rebound every 12m 3s
1 assist every 11m 7s
1 turnover every 12m 39s

Chris Allen needs to stop shooting fade away 3s and forcing terrible shots. Attempting more shots than points scored isn't efficient. He needs to get better looks with his feet set.

S. Christopherson - 30.4 minutes per game

1 point every 2m 52s; makes 3.4 out of 8.15 shots taken per game
takes a shot every 3m 42s; makes a shot every 9m 5s
3 pointers: Makes 1.65 out of 4.05 per game; shoots a 3 pointer every 7m 31s
Makes 2.25 out of 2.45 free throws per game
shoots a free throw every 12m 30s
1 rebound every 10m 31s
1 assist every 15m 9s
1 turnover every 17m 53s

Scott is one of the best 3pt shooters and our best FT shooter. He isn't getting enough touches or shots during game. He cannot keep up with faster players and needs to save his energy for offense in order to get more looks from 3s. We need to run more set plays to Scott so he can set his feet and shoot, while coming off of screens.

T. McGee - 20.6 minutes per game

1 point every 2m 13s; 2.85 out of 6.05 shots taken per game
takes a shot every 3m 24s; makes shot every 7m 15s
3 pointers: Makes 1.85 out of 4.1 per game; shoots a 3 pointer every 5m 2s
(68% of field goal attempts are from 3s)
Makes 1.75 out of 2.05 free throws per game
shoots a free throw every 10m 6s
1 rebound every 6m 4s (unreal for a guard)
1 assist every 33m 12s
1 turnover every 41m 40s

Tyrus should be a starter because he is the most efficient shooter, scorer, and rebounding guard. He has to play more in order for us to win. He rarely turns the ball over and is a firestarter on both ends of the floor. If he doesn't play more, we won't win the "resume builders" that we need in order to make the NCAA tourney.

C. Babb - 32.5 minutes per game

1 point every 3m 30s; 3.2 out of 8.1 shots taken per game
takes a shot every 4m 1s; makes a shot every 10m 12s
3 pointers: makes 2.3 out of 6.5 per game; shoots a 3 pointer every 5m
(80% of field goal attempts are from 3s)
Makes .85 out of 1.3 free throws per game
1 rebound every 7m 15s
1 assist every 20m
1 turnover every 36m 14m

Best lock-down defender, but has to stop being one-dimensional. With 80% of his attempts coming from 3s, he needs to drive the ball, in order to get to the line more. We know he can defend, but he must score for us to win.

M. Ejim - 22.3 minutes per game

1 point every 2m 46s; 2.8 out of 6 shots taken per game
takes a shot every 3m 42s; makes a shot every 7m 58s
3 pointers: makes 0.3 out of 1.55; shoots a 3 pointer every 14m 29s
(Shoots 19.4% overall; 8.3% in conference from 3pt)
Makes 2.15 out of 2.9 free throws per game
1 rebound every 3m 43s
1 assist every 22m 13s
1 turnover every 19m 36s

He is left open for a reason, but just because he's open, doesn't mean he has to shoot. Melvin is 8% in conference from 3s and must dribble drive instead instead of jacking up a prayer. They are leaving him open for a reason. Stop shooting 3s please MELVIN!!!! Great rebounder and finishes around the rim, but he is killing us by playing into the other teams scouting reports and taking too many open 3s.

P. Gibson - 11.2 minutes per game

1 point every 2m 29s; 2.05 out of 3.22 taken per game
takes a shot every 3m 28s; makes a shot every 5m 28s
makes 0.39 out of 1 free throw per game
1 rebound every 4m 40s
1 assist every 202m
(has to be the worst in the nation)
1 turnover every 25m 12s

Most efficient scorer on the team. Needs to be more physical crashing the boards and being a presence down low. He is raw and will continue to get better. He does have the best assist of the year and yes, he only has 1 assist the entire year. High-Low needs to be implemented in offensive sets in order to get him involved more.


A. Booker - 12.2 minutes per game

1 point every 3m 13s; 1.37 out of 2.63 taken per game
takes a shot 3m 47s; makes a shot every 5m 57s
3 pointers: makes 0.53 out of 1; shoots a 3 pointer every 12m 12s
makes 0.53 out of 1.05 free throws per game
1 rebound every 4m 41s
1 assist every 57m 57s
1 turnover every 21m 4s

Takes what the defense gives him. Ejim needs to take a few notes from Booker on how shot selection plays into winning games. Booker knocks down open looks. He is a decent rebounder, but needs to get to the line more. If he continues to knock down 3s off the bench, we will continue to win games.
 
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Good job, thanks for the effort. I'm not sure that looking just at the offensive stats is enough.

It would also help to look at how many points below a scorer's average our players are keeping the players they guard. Also, what is the team's efficiency in scoring/defense when a player is in the game vs. not in the game. For example, having Scotty in the game may keep the other team's defense focused on him thereby leaving other players more open to score.

I look forward to your analyses on these points as well. ;)

Thanks for the work; it's much appreciated.
 
This will be about the 4,000th time this is repeated on the boards but it doesn't matter who starts. What matters is minutes played and McGee's continue trending upward.

And Scotty needs to sandbag on defense to play offense? How about Scotty plays solid defensively and he doesn't need to score a ton of points. Scoring 15/game doesn't matter when he gives up 20.

Exact opposite story with Babb. He doesn't need to score a ton. He locks down his guy and puts 10 on the board and only gives up 6 or 8? That's more than helping the team.
 
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Psiclone said:
Good job, thanks for the effort. I'm not sure that looking just at the offensive stats is enough.

It would also help to look at how many points below a scorer's average our players are keeping the players they guard. Also, what is the team's efficiency in scoring/defense when a player is in the game vs. not in the game. For example, having Scotty in the game may keep the other team's defense focused on him thereby leaving other players more open to score.

I look forward to your analyses on these points as well. ;)

Thanks for the work; it's much appreciated.
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I can't tell if this is sarcasm or not...also you can't calculate these statistics. Those things are in the intangibles more because of things such as switching on defense. You would have to watch every minute of every game and note every time a specific person on the opposing team scored. These stats were based off things that you can calculate just by looking at the numbers.
 
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I'm sure Coach Hoiberg has got things under control. After all, he was one of the best players to ever play at Iowa State, he played 10 seasons in the NBA, and is now a D1 basketball coach.

It continues to amaze me how we always find something to ***** about after a loss.
 
allenj32 said:
After the loss to Texas last night, my brother and I are dumbfounded by the personnel Hoiberg continues to play and why he thinks he has the right combination starting, coming off the bench

...blah blah blah...lots of crap deleted
Click to expand...

Thanks for the morning humor.
 
nallen34 said:
I can't tell if this is sarcasm or not...also you can't calculate these statistics. Those things are in the intangibles more because of things such as switching on defense. You would have to watch every minute of every game and note every time a specific person on the opposing team scored. These stats were based off things that you can calculate just by looking at the numbers.
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I would bet that our staff is aware of such stats for our team, and I would also bet that they favor the rotation that the staff is using.
 
I just emailed Pollard to recommend that he fire Coach Hoiberg and hire you allenj32. You obviously know more than Fred about his players that he sees everyday. Statistically speaking I bet Fred has more clout walking into a living room and closing the deal than you do. Give it a rest. Lets do a run down here about Fred Hoiberg:

1. One of the best and most popular (if not the most popular) player in ISU history, Hes a home town kid who stayed home to become a legend.
2. Look up in the rafters, his number is retired.
3. He lives and breathes ISU, a school that has a hard time getting professional athletes to admit during NFL intros that they played there.
4. He is a 10 year respected NBA Veteran with his career cut short due to a heart ailment, hes lucky to be alive.
5. He was a respected front office member of the Minnesota T-Wolves
6. He has turned around the Cyclone program that might as well have been served the death penalty. He has increased the talent to a level that hasnt been seen here in a long time by going the transfer route.
7. In his 1st year coaching EVER with a rag tag bunch of guys he wins 16 games and instilled hope for the future after the trainwreck that pretty much has summed up ISU basketball for a decade.
8. His 2nd team has started to gel and has stomped 2 conference opponents on the road by more than 20 points for the 1st time since 1932.

But yet a lot of you guys think you actually know more about basketball/coaching/recruiting than he does. I find that extremely interesting
 
160px-Frink.png


Prof. Frink said:
My friends and I are poindexterous rather than dexterous.
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Scott gets plenty of touches. He just will have a hard time getting open or driving the ball without turning it over during conference play.
 
CycloneVet said:
I just emailed Pollard to recommend that he fire Coach Hoiberg and hire you allenj32. You obviously know more than Fred about his players that he sees everyday. Statistically speaking I bet Fred has more clout walking into a living room and closing the deal than you do. Give it a rest. Lets do a run down here about Fred Hoiberg:

1. One of the best and most popular (if not the most popular) player in ISU history, Hes a home town kid who stayed home to become a legend.
2. Look up in the rafters, his number is retired.
3. He lives and breathes ISU, a school that has a hard time getting professional athletes to admit during NFL intros that they played there.
4. He is a 10 year respected NBA Veteran with his career cut short due to a heart ailment, hes lucky to be alive.
5. He was a respected front office member of the Minnesota T-Wolves
6. He has turned around the Cyclone program that might as well have been served the death penalty. He has increased the talent to a level that hasnt been seen here in a long time by going the transfer route.
7. In his 1st year coaching EVER with a rag tag bunch of guys he wins 16 games and instilled hope for the future after the trainwreck that pretty much has summed up ISU basketball for a decade.
8. His 2nd team has started to gel and has stomped 2 conference opponents on the road by more than 20 points for the 1st time since 1932.

But yet a lot of you guys think you actually know more about basketball/coaching/recruiting than he does. I find that extremely interesting
Click to expand...

No one is saying he isn't famous or a terrible coach. These are opinions based off of the statistics. What's so wrong about showing stats? Relax dude.
 
I didn't see anyone suggesting that Hoiberg was a bad coach.

I too have a hard time seeing Chris Allen's value and feel his minutes should decrease significantly. Obviously, having Bubu around would really help with that.
 
McGee has been averaging 1 min more per game than Allen for the past 3.

Early in the conference season McGee got lost in the shuffle a little bit, but since coming on strong early against OSU he has been seeing a significant increase in PT.
 
I knew in posting these statistics that negativity would resonate around this topic. These statistics were posted in order to see the value of each player and what they are doing for the team, while they're on the court. This isn't to take a stab at Coach Hoiberg and what he is doing in Ames. I think he needs to change a few things, but so does every Iowa State fan. There will always be some things we won't like as fans and other things that they are addressing behind the scenes that we are unaware of. This was purely analysis and once again I would like to reiterate that the intangibles cannot be concretely calculated into all of these stats.

Conclusions you can draw from this analysis:
1) Tyrus must play more than Chris Allen. It doesn't matter if he got more minutes in these last couple of games. He needs to start. What would be so bad with giving him a chance starting? He is our "purest" shooter. He averaged 36ppg in high school and was the junior college player of the year for a reason. He has proven that he is better than Chris Allen and has earned starting in front of him. Chris Allen may have more experience in big games, but he has shown his inexperience at the point and his shot selection is horrendous. Looking at his efficiency, he is making only 3 out of every 10 shots which is horrible. Tyrus needs to start for us to win in big games. Us beating the bottom feeders won't get us into the tournament.

2) I'm not saying Scott should sandbag on defense, but we cannot have him guarding someone like Myck Kabongo, who is five times as fast as he is. Scott loves going under screens and he is trailing his defender constantly. We need to have him guard someone else who isn't such an intricate part of their offense, so he can work hard on offense coming off screens and having his legs under his shot.

3)I never once said Hoiberg was a bad coach or that I disagreed what he was doing. He has done a great job thus far and is moving us in the right direction. Once again, the INTANGIBLES cannot be factored in. We are analyzing statistics that can be looked at as far as efficiency goes. You can see from these stats that Tyrus, Booker, Percy, and Royce are the most efficient when in the game. I understand why Babb is playing the most minutes because he is our best defender and is keying on their best player, but Chris Allen hasn't done much in the past 10 games and if you compare his non-conference vs. his confernce stats, he isn't contributing like Tyrus is. I am saying give Tyrus a chance at point. He takes care of the ball and takes better shots. Chris Allen coming down and taking a fade away 3 with 28 on the shot clock is unacceptable as well as Ejim jacking up a 3 in the corner when he is wide open. Fred needs to address our shot selection. I know we live and die by the 3, but we don't have to. We need to be able to run set plays or run a 5 out set with Royce running the point to setup our shooters after defenders swarm him. He is our best passer and finds the open man better than anyone on the team. He leads the team in everything for a reason. He has to touch the ball every possession and is our catalyst.
 
Your statistics ignore the interactions between players. Additionally, it doesn't take position played into account (SC might be more efficient as a 2 and not a 1).

In actuality, while the stats are nice, there are too many other factors which should be taken into account before I can draw any meaningful conclusions.
 
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