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Cyclone Fanatic College Football Playoff Committee Rankings

Sigmapolis

Sigmapolis

Minister of Economy
Aug 10, 2011
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Thirteen of us have a committee going with our own poll to rank college football teams.

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Eleven of us were able to vote this week. Here are our results for Week 9 with some analysis...

upload_2018-10-30_11-12-0.png

Some thoughts and analysis...

-- we all agreed in ranking Alabama, Clemson, and Notre Dame as 1-2-3, respectively

-- the fourth spot was (and probably will be) controversial in being split between LSU, Michigan, and Georgia, though games over the next few weeks should sort that out

-- the composition of the Top 8 was relatively uncontroversial, but all hell breaks loose after that

-- Oklahoma appears to be the Big 12's best hope, but would need some slip ups above them, which could happen if the SEC teams eliminate each other in the next month and Michigan drops another game, likely against Ohio State in Ann Arbor on November 24

-- the best hope after that is Iowa or Wisconsin winning the Big Ten championship game to eliminate Ohio State or Michigan... OU might need some help from the Hawks

-- Texas seems to vex us the most based on the standard deviation amid teams always appearing in the rankings, ranking anywhere from #13 all the way down to #24

-- Washington State, Kentucky, and UCF also produced some wide differences of opinion, though Kentucky's game against Georgia this weekend should settle much of that controversy, as will future WSU games, though UCF is always going to be an issue

-- filling out the back-half or back-third of the rankings was difficult for many of us... lots of teams with similar resumes, hard to slot the G5 teams with good records relative to the P5 teams

-- we ended up with 12 teams in others receiving votes, which will probably come down in future weeks with a greater sample size to work with

-- 3/11 of us were brave enough to rank Iowa State... #20 (me) and two at #25
 
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LSU is overrated. Granted they are a good team but they were unranked for much of the season but shot up with just a couple wins. Always happens with teams that are getting ready to play Bama.

Also what is up with Houston. Yes, they have a good offense but they got pasted by Texas Tech. No sign of Tech and yet we leave Houston in the Top 20? Too reliant on wins and losses.
 
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Cardinal and Gold said:
Is there any way to add an overall record column to the spreadsheet, and maybe even a conf. record column? Thanks for putting this thing together and to everyone that is voting.
Click to expand...

Sigmapolis said:
Sure. That is easy data to have from CFR and then an easy index/match. Good suggestion.
Click to expand...


Sig can do excel sheets in his sleep.
 
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Does anyone have a link or the name of the stat guys website that Chris has on KXNO. Can't seem to remember or find their site.
 
ArgentCy said:
LSU is overrated. Granted they are a good team but they were unranked for much of the season but shot up with just a couple wins. Always happens with teams that are getting ready to play Bama.

Also what is up with Houston. Yes, they have a good offense but they got pasted by Texas Tech. No sign of Tech and yet we leave Houston in the Top 20? Too reliant on wins and losses.
Click to expand...
I agree on both counts. I put LSU down at 7 (and have already gotten grief for it) and debated whether to put Houston in at all but finally ranked them 25th.
 
Balancing things between wins/losses and your "record" (sort of the old time newspaper way of doing the rankings) and modern analytics is always hard for me.

Iowa State is absolutely a Top 25, if not a Top 15 team, based on the computer rankings for per play or per drive efficiencies adjusted by the quality of the opponent. I might be a little biased, too, but those numbers are even better if you only include the Purdy era.

But our record is meh right now.

I usually end up doing a blend of the two with some of my own manual adjustments.
 
  • Agree
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Whatever the line is on Bama this week over LSU... Lay the points.
 
Sigmapolis said:
Balancing things between wins/losses and your "record" (sort of the old time newspaper way of doing the rankings) and modern analytics is always hard for me.

Iowa State is absolutely a Top 25, if not a Top 15 team, based on the computer rankings for per play or per drive efficiencies adjusted by the quality of the opponent.

But our record is meh right now.

I usually end up doing a blend of the two with some of my own manual adjustments.
Click to expand...

In my opinion Records are way worse to look at then even yards gained or allowed in a game. Completely useless unless you know who they played. I mean if we put Alabama to play the KC Chiefs schedule they would be winless and still be a great team.
 
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For now LSU is the #4 team. They've earned it, but chances are they will lose this weekend and be out of the top 4.
 
Sigmapolis said:
538 says we have an 8% chance of winning out.

If we do, they give us a 5% chance of making the CFP.

A lot would have to break our way.

8% * 5% = 0.4%

1 in 250
Click to expand...

Obligatory:

giphy.gif
 
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