During the radio hour this week, @ChrisMWilliams and @brentblum wondered what ISU's computer rankings would look like without the UW-M or Missouri games dragging us down.
I did some quick calculations this evening to figure that out.
My chosen computer metric, while there are many out there, is the Simple Rating System (SRS) developed and maintained by Sports Reference. They are a lovely source. There is an overview of SRS here and details about its assumptions, methodology, and calculations here. I chose it because it is straightforward to interpret and, unlike some proprietary systems, like KenPom, the data and calculations to assess it are essentially public and easy to modify.
SRS gives you a number about how many points better/worse you are than the average team. Right now, counting all games, ISU has a +8.96 in SRS, which means we are 8.96 points better than the average team of the 351 in Division 1 basketball, which is somebody like College of Charleston or North Dakota State. The full list of teams right now by SRS is right here.
Anyways, with our +8.96, we are...
CURRENT RANKING
71. Marquette
72. Fresno State
73. Iowa State
74. UCLA
75. Virginia Commonwealth
I will not bore you all with the calculations, but without the UW-M game, we are a +12.06, so that one game docked us three game points in the rating. That would put us...
REMOVING UW-M GAME
54. Northern Iowa
55. Butler
XX. Iowa State
56. Utah
57. San Diego State
We just beat Northern Iowa, of course, and they were receiving some votes in the AP poll. This would put us about tied with K-State for last in the Big 12 by this metric.
If you take the Missouri game out, we are a +13.09, which puts us...
REMOVE UW-M & MIZZOU
49. Western Kentucky
50. Minnesota
YY. Iowa State
51. Alabama
52. Kansas State
Minnesota and Alabama are both receiving votes in the AP poll. This would put us just ahead of the Wildcats for ninth in the conference by this rating system.
Last year's team finished +20.51, for the record.
So those two losses cost us about four points in this computer ranking. They cost us around 5 or 6 points per 100 possessions in the KenPom rankings, if I have to estimate.
Teams in the 50th range last season were generally around the bubble...
Made it = URI (#11 AQ), Maryland (#6), VT (#9), Seton Hall (#9), VCU (#10)
Play-in game = USC (#11 versus Providence)
Missed it = Utah, Houston, Oklahoma, Alabama, Tennessee
Discount those two games, and our power rating projects a bubble team.
I did some quick calculations this evening to figure that out.
My chosen computer metric, while there are many out there, is the Simple Rating System (SRS) developed and maintained by Sports Reference. They are a lovely source. There is an overview of SRS here and details about its assumptions, methodology, and calculations here. I chose it because it is straightforward to interpret and, unlike some proprietary systems, like KenPom, the data and calculations to assess it are essentially public and easy to modify.
SRS gives you a number about how many points better/worse you are than the average team. Right now, counting all games, ISU has a +8.96 in SRS, which means we are 8.96 points better than the average team of the 351 in Division 1 basketball, which is somebody like College of Charleston or North Dakota State. The full list of teams right now by SRS is right here.
Anyways, with our +8.96, we are...
CURRENT RANKING
71. Marquette
72. Fresno State
73. Iowa State
74. UCLA
75. Virginia Commonwealth
I will not bore you all with the calculations, but without the UW-M game, we are a +12.06, so that one game docked us three game points in the rating. That would put us...
REMOVING UW-M GAME
54. Northern Iowa
55. Butler
XX. Iowa State
56. Utah
57. San Diego State
We just beat Northern Iowa, of course, and they were receiving some votes in the AP poll. This would put us about tied with K-State for last in the Big 12 by this metric.
If you take the Missouri game out, we are a +13.09, which puts us...
REMOVE UW-M & MIZZOU
49. Western Kentucky
50. Minnesota
YY. Iowa State
51. Alabama
52. Kansas State
Minnesota and Alabama are both receiving votes in the AP poll. This would put us just ahead of the Wildcats for ninth in the conference by this rating system.
Last year's team finished +20.51, for the record.
So those two losses cost us about four points in this computer ranking. They cost us around 5 or 6 points per 100 possessions in the KenPom rankings, if I have to estimate.
Teams in the 50th range last season were generally around the bubble...
Made it = URI (#11 AQ), Maryland (#6), VT (#9), Seton Hall (#9), VCU (#10)
Play-in game = USC (#11 versus Providence)
Missed it = Utah, Houston, Oklahoma, Alabama, Tennessee
Discount those two games, and our power rating projects a bubble team.
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