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Chances of winning the North

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Phenom

Member
Nov 14, 2008
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Gents,

I was here a lot last year. I'm sure I'll drop in plenty the week of the ISU/Mizzou game, but for now wanted to share the new gadget we've developed for guaging the odds of winning the North.

Barking Carnival — Blog — Predict-a-North - 4 Games to Go

It's Predict-a-North. As you know, chances are long for your Cyclones, but they exist. So close.... the KSU and KU games were killers. You've got to be happy about your team, though. The video of Rhoads after the NU game gave me chills....

Good luck this weekend.
 
At this point, I just want the team to play their guts out and win as many of their remaining games as possible and get into a bowl game. We have an opportunity to knock off a Top 25 team, grab a solid win over a conference opponent that should be firmly below us, and compete for another win on the road. When our games are complete and if we are standing in first place in the North, that would be amazing. But our goal right now should be to get a bowl game, and the let the other chips fall where they may.
 
ISU won't win the north, and that's ok. I'd like to beat CO and MO, then we go bowling and have the best record in at least 5 years.
 
chuckd4735 said:
IMO, the only way ISU wins the north is if they win out.
Click to expand...

Hell, knowing our history, we will beat OSU and CU, only to blow a late FG against MU that costs us the title -- again.

I would be perfectly excited with 6-6. Winning the North is a great goal for the team, but I am not going to sweat it for a minute.
 
1. Why is KSU not the favorite to win the north according to your projections? I understand the road game at NU is pretty pivotal, but they control their own destiny and have 2 home games to work with.

2. Why is KSU beating KU good for MU? KU has 1 conf win...so does MU. if KSU beats KU, then it looks like the north race is about over.
 
FD Cyclone said:
1. Why is KSU not the favorite to win the north according to your projections? I understand the road game at NU is pretty pivotal, but they control their own destiny and have 2 home games to work with.

2. Why is KSU beating KU good for MU? KU has 1 conf win...so does MU. if KSU beats KU, then it looks like the north race is about over.
Click to expand...

KSU is not favored to win the North because KSU is not favored to win any of its remaining games. If you think that's wrong, you can adjust the lines as you see fit. They're an underdog at home this weekend to KU, so I think it's pretty accurate.

If K State beats KU, the Cats have four wins with Mizzou and NU left, and KU is then maxed out at 4 wins. In reality, that games means almost nothing for Mizzou. It shifts the probabilities less than 1%.
 
ISU is a 8 point dog to OSU, but a 14 point dog to MU???? I think that OSU is twice the team MU is, I know one game is at home and one is on the road - but something is skewed there.
 
erikbj said:
ISU is a 8 point dog to OSU, but a 14 point dog to MU???? I think that OSU is twice the team MU is, I know one game is at home and one is on the road - but something is skewed there.
Click to expand...
That'd say that Iowa State is 11 points worse than OSU on a neutral field and Mizzou is 11 points better than Iowa State on a neutral field. MU is not >>>> OSU.
 
Phenom said:
KSU is not favored to win the North because KSU is not favored to win any of its remaining games. If you think that's wrong, you can adjust the lines as you see fit. They're an underdog at home this weekend to KU, so I think it's pretty accurate.

If K State beats KU, the Cats have four wins with Mizzou and NU left, and KU is then maxed out at 4 wins. In reality, that games means almost nothing for Mizzou. It shifts the probabilities less than 1%.
Click to expand...

Well, we don't want KSU to get a 4th win...so that projection isn't going to be popular here. Cyclone Rules '09: Root against the entire state of Kansas, favoring KU over KSU.
 
CycoCyclone said:
ISU won't win the north, and that's ok. I'd like to beat CO and MO, then we go bowling and have the best record in at least 5 years.
Click to expand...

Wouldn't that be in three years; since we had 7 wins in '05? It does seem like longer though.
 
erikbj said:
ISU is a 8 point dog to OSU, but a 14 point dog to MU???? I think that OSU is twice the team MU is, I know one game is at home and one is on the road - but something is skewed there.
Click to expand...

I hear what you're saying, but that's irrelevant, right? You change the odds. You make them whatever you think they'll be. Now it's just one guy throwing crap at the wall.
 
Win the North or not, I couldn't be happier with where this team is. All things considered, I could have seen us winning 1-3 games. Helluva job so far!
 
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Yes we can. And, I predict on Decmeber 6 in Arlington, under the leadership of Santa Anna Rhoads, Iowa State will pummel the Longhorns to such an extent that the State of Texas will forget the Alamo.
 
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chuckd4735 said:
IMO, the only way ISU wins the north is if they win out.
Click to expand...

I disagree. I think ISU has just as good of shot as anyone if we win our last two. I don't think KSU can win another game and it will be a tough road for Kansas to get back on top. Wins over Nebraska and Missouri would put us in good shape. I think our most crucial loss right now was the loss to KSU.
 
You can break who will win the Big XII North down so many ways right now. We have a chance to win it this far into the season, which most thought wasn't possible at the beginning of the season. We'll see...
 
jaretac said:
I disagree. I think ISU has just as good of shot as anyone if we win our last two. I don't think KSU can win another game and it will be a tough road for Kansas to get back on top. Wins over Nebraska and Missouri would put us in good shape. I think our most crucial loss right now was the loss to KSU.
Click to expand...

I think its a little irrational to think K-State wont win another game this season when they have 2 straight home games coming up against teams that are 1-3 in conference play currently. I can see where Kansas will give them problems, but I don't see where K-State will have any problem beating Mizzou in Manhattan. That would put them at worst at 4-4.

I truly think the K-State/NU game this year in Lincoln is going to decide who takes the North crown. However, there could potentially be a 3 or 4 way tie at 4-4, but if that's the case I think Kansas will have beaten every North team, giving them the tie-breaker. Again, I think ISU has to win out to win the North.
 
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I swear I read someone that if NU, KSU, and ISU all finish at 4-4 atop the North that ISU would have the tiebreaker. Is that accurate?
 
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