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Chances of being 14-2 going into KU game?

CloneJob

CloneJob

Active Member
Jan 10, 2009
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I'd say 75% odds we can be 14-2 going into KU game. Tonight is a win against Chicago State. Virginia should be close. Depends on how we shoot on the road. Northern Illinios is a win. And Neb could be a win, again depending on how we shoot on the road.

At 14-2... Tourney talk starts to become very real.
 
CloneJob said:
I'd say 75% odds we can be 14-2 going into KU game. Tonight is a win against Chicago State. Virginia should be close. Depends on how we shoot on the road. Northern Illinios is a win. And Neb could be a win, again depending on how we shoot on the road.

At 14-2... Tourney talk starts to become very real.
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IMO, we will lose at least 12 games in conference play. NIT maybe but I doubt it.
 
Odds of being 14-2? I'd say 25%. That means we would have to win 2 games on the road against decent teams.
I see us losing at least one of those games, possibly both.
 
I'd say there's about a 10% chance we start 14-2, and about a 1% chance we have to worry about the NCAA tournament. We're going to get abused in a bad way inside once we started playing real basketball teams.
 
Virginia had a close one this weekend against a team I didn't think was good, but didn't see it and don't even know that they arent good - only going by name. Made me feel better about our chances though.
 
14-2 = 25%
13-3 = 40%
12-4 = 34%
11-5 or less = 1%

I think we will win one of those 2 road games. But, I think our chances of losing both of those road games are greater than winning both of them.
 
99% chance we beat Chicago St
50% chance we win at virginia
95% chance we beat Northern Illinois
50% chance we win at Nebraska

______23.5125% chance of winning all four
 
We are underdogs in both the UVa and NU games, so each of those games have less that 50% of us winning. kenpom gives us a 48% chance in the UVa game and a 32% chance in the NU game. By my (probably quite incorrect) math, that comes out to 20% chance to win both of them, which sounds about right to me.
 
I think 13-3 is probably the most likely and I don't think that'd be anything to scoff at. Especially when you think that up until this point we've beaten every team that I'd say we SHOULD have beat and gone 2-2 in games that could be considered even. At 13-3 even with a loss to VA or Nebby we still wouldn't have a bad loss in IMO. Tourney talk will still probably need to hold off until we got a signature win but wouldnt be unthinkable. Now that there are a few lower tier tourneys I think we'd have a shot with 18 wins. People tend to bash the cbi and collegeinsider tourneys but I'd love to see this staff get a few extra weeks of practice and get our young guys some tournament atmopshere experience, I'll be happy win ANY post season tourney.
 
bawbie said:
We are underdogs in both the UVa and NU games, so each of those games have less that 50% of us winning. kenpom gives us a 48% chance in the UVa game and a 32% chance in the NU game. By my (probably quite incorrect) math, that comes out to 20% chance to win both of them, which sounds about right to me.
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15% :wink:
 
Virginia beat Norfolk State (1-8 record) 50-49 at home last night. It'll be a tough game for us, but by no means is it unwinnable. Nebraska isn't good, especially without Standhardinger. We'd have to stumble big-time to drop one of the home games.

I dont view 14-2 as probable, but I like our odds a lot better than I did after the UNI game.
 
heitclone said:
I think 13-3 is probably the most likely and I don't think that'd be anything to scoff at. Especially when you think that up until this point we've beaten every team that I'd say we SHOULD have beat and gone 2-2 in games that could be considered even. At 13-3 even with a loss to VA or Nebby we still wouldn't have a bad loss in IMO. Tourney talk will still probably need to hold off until we got a signature win but wouldnt be unthinkable. Now that there are a few lower tier tourneys I think we'd have a shot with 18 wins. People tend to bash the cbi and collegeinsider tourneys but I'd love to see this staff get a few extra weeks of practice and get our young guys some tournament atmopshere experience, I'll be happy win ANY post season tourney.
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This is what I've been saying since the surprising start to the season. NCAA are prob a reach but NIT or CBI or insider is going to happen. I say 12-3 nonconference and 4-6 wins in conference leaves us 16-18 plus big 12 tourney. This will be a great first year for CFH.
 
I put it closer to 10%. @Virginia will be a very tough game. Don't let our record fool you, we haven't faced a strong road challenge yet. UNI was the best we've faced and we lost to them. Iowa doesn't have their team clicking yet and that was a tight game. The neutral Creighton game was last second shot worthy.

Virginia has wins over Minnesota and VT on the road. Plus wins over Oklahoma and Oregon. Their only losses are @Stanford (3 time zones away), vs a rated Washington, and to against a solid Wichita State team.

That game could be a BIG loss as far as margin IMO, and after it people will be jumping off bridges like the season is doomed because it's the closest thing to Big 12 competition we will have seen (totally ignoring the game being on the road).

We'll go 3-1 over the next 4 games (with a tight game at Nebby just going our way).
 
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