Can we talk about blown leads?

[Al_4_State]

During the first half of the Rhoads era, this program won quite a few close games including the 2 OT thrillers in 2011.

Since the end of the 2012 season, we've surrendered second half leads, or blew opportunities to win late in at least the following:

'13: UNI, Texas, TCU, Tech
'14: Texas, KSU, Tech, WVU
'15: Iowa, KSU, Toledo, OSU
'16: UNI, Baylor, OSU, KSU
'17: Iowa

Obviously Rhoads' results shouldn't be held against Campbell, but it doesn't seem like this is getting any better. Now, Campbell is young and is doing a lot of things right, but what needs to change to get this
program closing? The reason Paul Rhoads is gone is because those last three teams couldn't close. For all Campbell is doing right, this is starting to feel like a glaring trend. We won't get over the hump until we start winning these games.

Obviously execution is an issue. Butler's drop sealed the game, as did maybe the INT to Hesse. Was running the ball prior to Iowa's last regulation possession the right call? I'm not sure, but in terms of what Campbell has direct control over, I think we need to stay aggressive in those situations. There are situations where it will backfire, but more often than not I think dancing with who brought ya will lead to the optimal chances of victory.

I hope we can get this figured out, because at this point a 10-14 point lead in the 4th vs a team at or above our talent level is a guaranteed nut kick. We're obviously much improved, and have a great chance at a bowl, but the story of this program continues to be snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

 

[Cyched]

My issue isn't necessarily with the blown leads, but the fact that we never seem able to get just one more first down, or one more defensive stop, when we need it the most.

 

[Al_4_State]

My issue isn't necessarily with the blown leads, but the fact that we never seem able to get just one more first down, or one more defensive stop, when we need it the most.

That's where id advocate a more aggressive offensive approach late.

 

[CyBobby]

The only way to fix "blown leads" is to recruit better players.......

 

[JP4CY]

I think the tempo our offense usually runs has a lot to do with it. It seems like our D is trying to get a stop in the 4th but are just gassed from being on the field 35+ minutes. IMO, those were two pretty evenly matched teams but Iowa controlled the clock a lot better late in the game and tired us out.

 

[khardbored]

Nope, can't talk about it.

 

[Cyched]

That's where id advocate a more aggressive offensive approach late.

Absolutely. There were plenty of pass plays we had run all game that would have still been conservative enough for that drive where we burned Iowa's TO's. Or that option/pitch to Montgomery that had been working all day.

 

[madguy30]

CPR's leads felt hollow. Right now it feels more like 'this is what we want to do, and we're going to do it'.

Some of it is player execution and that comes down to talent.

My main concerns are that players seem to be out of position on defense and not being aggressive on the 2nd to last possession yesterday was tough to stomach. Get one down field past the markers and keep them honest.

 

[Bigman38]

Like everything it's a culmination of those things you mention. The coaches clamped up and went away from what worked, the player said started playing tight and blowing easy plays. At least yesterday the talent was more than enough, the offense was dominant. The problem is Iowa is an avg big 12 team at best. That edge in talent won't be there many more games.

It's not an easy answer, but it starts with the coaches. When they show that confidence it will filter down to the players.

 

[UNIGuy4Cy]

The offensive play calling with under 5 minutes in the game was atrocious, some of the worst in the Tom Manning era. Couple drops and play calling did us in.

 

[LarryISU]

I seriously considered leaving the game when, with a touchdown lead and 3 and 1/2 minutes left, I saw us once again run it for no gain on first down. I said right then, we just lost this game. I knew we would run three conservative plays and punt and then we would lose. Going back to McCarney and even before, that has been our M.O. Trying to "run out the clock" or force them to burn timeouts is a losing strategy when you don't have a strong, swarming defense.

This coaching staff is far too conservative overall, IMO. Before halftime we had the ball on the 30 with 45 seconds left. You could have thrown nothing but 40 yard passes and you could complete one or get a P.I. penalty on the other team. But no, we ran it up the middle and then stood there, players staring at coaches, until the clock said :00. We are underdogs in almost every game, so we can't just play straight up, by-the-book football and think that is going to change anything. I had hoped this staff would understand that and be more aggressive, but let's face it, they are more conservative than even Rhoads was. Hate to say it, but true. And it cost us another game yesterday.

As someone else said in another thread, when have we relied on our defense to win a game at the end, and they did it? The only example I can think of is the Texas game where Jeremiah George stole the ball from the running back at the one yard line, and we won the game (well, we literally and physically won that one, I realize the record books show it as a loss).

 

[DeereClone]

A good offensive line goes a long ways to putting these types of games away.

 

[TheJackWePack5]

I saw it as one team that knows how to win took the game away from a team that hasn't won very often.

Having the confidence late to take a game away from another team is probably the most important thing to have.

The players have the ability, just between the ears they need to hold it together.

 

[clonedude]

My issue isn't necessarily with the blown leads, but the fact that we never seem able to get just one more first down, or one more defensive stop, when we need it the most.

So blowing leads isn't your issue... it's blowing leads that's your issue?

Getting one or two more 1st downs, or one more defensive stop, etc, is what you have to do to not blow leads.

Blowing leads has definitely been an issue in Campbell's short time here. We blew a lot of 4th qtr leads last year, and now again against Iowa yesterday. It is an issue that needs addressed. I felt like we got that 10 pt lead in the 4th, and then took the foot off the gas a bit and were only trying to kill clock and burn Iowa's TO's.

The other issue we've always had against Iowa is T.O.P., and I think it hurt us again yesterday. The defense was on the field too long, and tired at the very end a bit. As awesome as Butler's 74 yd TD was, which it was, the defense was probably thinking "we have to go back out there again already?".

Two very evenly matched teams yesterday. Stats couldn't be more close. IMO, if something were to happen to Wadley, Iowa would be screwed. He's the only one on their team that a defense has to be concerned about really. I still have no idea how ISU gave up a 46 yd TD on a 5 yd dump off pass with a minute and a half left in the game. That CANNOT happen. In that situation, you have to almost be playing a "prevent" defense.

Park might think this is a different team this year, but yet, we still are finding ways to lose games..... which has been an ISU curse since..... well..... forever.

 

[Omaha Cy]

I believe more than anything that when ISU finally gets some hosses up front, and ISU can run the ball very effectively this won't be an issue.

ISU had a decent/nice ground game yesterday. While very few runs popped for big gains, they consistently got 3-4 yards, and stuck with it. However, it wasn't something the offense could lean on, and late in the game that's where you get bailed out.

 

[UNIGuy4Cy]

A good offensive line goes a long ways to putting these types of games away.

Against that defensive front 7 against Iowa, ISU's offensive line was extremely good.

 

[Farnsworth]

I hate feeling so uncomfortable on 3rd and longs on defense again. Ugh.

 

[Cyched]

So blowing leads isn't your issue... it's blowing leads that's your issue?

Getting one or two more 1st downs, or one more defensive stop, etc, is what you have to do to not blow leads.

Blowing leads has definitely been an issue in Campbell's short time here. We blew a lot of 4th qtr leads last year, and now again against Iowa yesterday. It is an issue that needs addressed. I felt like we got that 10 pt lead in the 4th, and then took the foot off the gas a bit and were only trying to kill clock and burn Iowa's TO's.

The other issue we've always had against Iowa is T.O.P., and I think it hurt us again yesterday. The defense was on the field too long, and tired at the very end a bit. As awesome as Butler's 74 yd TD was, which it was, the defense was probably thinking "we have to go back out there again already?".

Two very evenly matched teams yesterday. Stats couldn't be more close. IMO, if something were to happen to Wadley, Iowa would be screwed. He's the only one on their team that a defense has to be concerned about really. I still have no idea how ISU gave up a 46 yd TD on a 5 yd dump off pass with a minute and a half left in the game. That CANNOT happen. In that situation, you have to almost be playing a "prevent" defense.

Park might think this is a different team this year, but yet, we still are finding ways to lose games..... which has been an ISU curse since..... well..... forever.

Talking about the aspects of the blown lead(s) that bothers me the most.

 

[clonedude]

Against that defensive front 7 against Iowa, ISU's offensive line was extremely good.

David Montgomery was good, the OL.... pretty average in run blocking IMO, great in pass protection. That option pitch play usually worked and seemed to be blocked well, but that's more dependent on good WR blocking, not OL blocking.

Just like the UNI game, Montgomery made his own yards nearly all on his own, not many holes there.

 

[IcSyU]

TOP is such a bull **** stat. Iowa had the ball for 15 more minutes but only ran 10 more plays.

If the defense wants to spend less time on the field, finish 3rd downs. How many 3rd and 10+ did they give up yesterday? I can think of at least 3. Opposing teams converting to 50% of their third downs won't lead to success for the defense.

Bottom line: The offense threw 38 on the board yesterday in regulation. That should be more than enough to beat a very average Iowa offense.