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Big12 School Media Value

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isucy86

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Apr 13, 2006
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As part of the realignment discussion, there has been conjecture:
  • Does the Big12 add select Pac12 schools (4 Corners Option) - 16 schools
  • Does the Big12 & Pac12 Merge - 22 schools
  • Something between 16 & 22 schools based on maximizing media $ per school
In thinking through those options, it seems a pretty clear hierarchy within the Pac12. But when I try to value Big12 schools, I have a tougher time because TV market size doesn't align with the best schools on the field/court. Teams in the biggest media markets, aren't the main state schools getting most attention and largest alumni bases (Houston & TCU). So just curious how other people would rank the new Big12 from Media Rights valuation.

  1. Okie State
  2. BYU
  3. Texas Tech
  4. Kansas (Having a historical top 5 hoops program saves them)
  5. West Virginia
  6. Iowa State
  7. Cincinnati
  8. Kansas State
  9. Baylor
  10. UCF
  11. Texas Christian
  12. Houston
I realize the upside of the AAC adds to the Big12 last fall, but if they were highly prized schools for the TV Networks, they would have already been P5 schools. OR the AAC TV contract would have been more lucrative.
 
ruflosn said:
Is WVU really higher than ISU?
Click to expand...

I think they would be. They are the only P5 school in the state. Marshall being the next biggest school. But WVU is the 39th most populous state, about 1.3M behind Iowa. But they are also 49th in median household income.

Part of the reason I struggle ranking Big12 teams. Doesn't seem to be any school that hits on all points TV execs might value.
 
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isucy86 said:
As part of the realignment discussion, there has been conjecture:
  • Does the Big12 add select Pac12 schools (4 Corners Option) - 16 schools
  • Does the Big12 & Pac12 Merge - 22 schools
  • Something between 16 & 22 schools based on maximizing media $ per school
In thinking through those options, it seems a pretty clear hierarchy within the Pac12. But when I try to value Big12 schools, I have a tougher time because TV market size doesn't align with the best schools on the field/court. Teams in the biggest media markets, aren't the main state schools getting most attention and largest alumni bases (Houston & TCU). So just curious how other people would rank the new Big12 from Media Rights valuation.

  1. Okie State
  2. BYU
  3. Texas Tech
  4. Kansas (Having a historical top 5 hoops program saves them)
  5. West Virginia
  6. Iowa State
  7. Cincinnati
  8. Kansas State
  9. Baylor
  10. UCF
  11. Texas Christian
  12. Houston
I realize the upside of the AAC adds to the Big12 last fall, but if they were highly prized schools for the TV Networks, they would have already been P5 schools. OR the AAC TV contract would have been more lucrative.
Click to expand...

I believe you have undervalued Houston in a P5 conference.
 
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I@ST1 said:
I believe you have undervalued Houston in a P5 conference.
Click to expand...
The bottom two of the OP's list are most frequently mentioned for PAC expansion due to them being in largest media markets in the B12 footprint. I would put UH at the bottom. The majority of their student and alumni base that watch CFB are either UT or aggy fans. Same deal with UCF and UC. A high % of UCF students/alums watch Florida or FSU and likewise with UC instead watching Ohio St. Viewing habits may trend upward for UCF and UC with B12 affiliation but don't count on it from UH. And the problem with TCU isn't student/alum devotion, it's the relatively small number of them.

Also, valuation models are changing. You constantly see them referred to by former Fox and ESPN execs who likely don't know jack about how Amazon and Apple would model their own valuations given their cash reserves and quest to increase streaming subs. They are likely willing to overpay compared to Fox/ESPN models and obviously ESPN and Fox are trying like hell to keep both out of the space. Hopefully, the B12 tells both ESPN and Fox to eff themselves and not play second or third fiddle to the SEC and B10.
 
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isucy86 said:
As part of the realignment discussion, there has been conjecture:
  • Does the Big12 add select Pac12 schools (4 Corners Option) - 16 schools
  • Does the Big12 & Pac12 Merge - 22 schools
  • Something between 16 & 22 schools based on maximizing media $ per school
In thinking through those options, it seems a pretty clear hierarchy within the Pac12. But when I try to value Big12 schools, I have a tougher time because TV market size doesn't align with the best schools on the field/court. Teams in the biggest media markets, aren't the main state schools getting most attention and largest alumni bases (Houston & TCU). So just curious how other people would rank the new Big12 from Media Rights valuation.

  1. Okie State
  2. BYU
  3. Texas Tech
  4. Kansas (Having a historical top 5 hoops program saves them)
  5. West Virginia
  6. Iowa State
  7. Cincinnati
  8. Kansas State
  9. Baylor
  10. UCF
  11. Texas Christian
  12. Houston
I realize the upside of the AAC adds to the Big12 last fall, but if they were highly prized schools for the TV Networks, they would have already been P5 schools. OR the AAC TV contract would have been more lucrative.
Click to expand...
Sports Illustrated just quantified this to some degree for all power five schools. Here are the results. Spoiler, we score pretty well
 
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Houston and UCF are interesting, because they are big. Of course the students going there probably had a P5 favorite if they even cared about sports. Similar to UNI being a lot of Iowa fans. It’ll take awhile, but their fan base WILL grow, and maybe even explode. It’s all about targeting the younger generation, and winning at the highest level.
 
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isucy86 said:
I think they would be. They are the only P5 school in the state. Marshall being the next biggest school. But WVU is the 39th most populous state, about 1.3M behind Iowa. But they are also 49th in median household income.

Part of the reason I struggle ranking Big12 teams. Doesn't seem to be any school that hits on all points TV execs might value.
Click to expand...

All of their alums just move to Ohio or Pittsburgh.
 
Than
8bitnes said:
Sports Illustrated just quantified this to some degree for all power five schools. Here are the results. Spoiler, we score pretty well
Click to expand...
Fun link.

If this is used as a guide, and I could see it as influential, Iowa State is a pretty desirable college sports commodity at #27. West Virginia, for instance, is not nearly so, and neither are many other schools that on the surface seem to have a leg up on us. The statistics given at the link give credence to us being a nice mix of scholastic, fan base, multiple sports success, and more.
 
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StClone said:
Than

Fun link.

If this is used as a guide, and I could see it as influential, Iowa State is a pretty desirable college sports commodity at #27. West Virginia, for instance, is not nearly so, and neither are many other schools that on the surface seem to have a leg up on us. The statistics given at the link give credence to us being a nice mix of scholastic, fan base, multiple sports success, and more.
Click to expand...

I think that is an interesting exercise by SI. But not sure academics or all-sport performance is going to factor into how TV Executives value realignment prospects. I agree with cykadelic2 in that Amazon/Apple/Paramount/Peacock might value a conferences media rights different from Fox and ESPN.

Obviously Disney is an interesting party in the TV Rights negotiation as they own ESPN, Disney+ and Hulu. They are dealing from both ends of the deck: the linear programing model & subscription based streaming.
 
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PredominantISU said:
I would have said that as well until I’ve seen their game attendance and tv viewership numbers. Absolutely abysmal
Click to expand...
Viewership is also strongly impacted by the channel, timeslot, and opponent. Theyve had about the worst of all 3 in the AAC. Not saying they will be great but i bet its much better, maybe even approaching mediocre.
 
isucy86 said:
I think they would be. They are the only P5 school in the state. Marshall being the next biggest school. But WVU is the 39th most populous state, about 1.3M behind Iowa. But they are also 49th in median household income.

Part of the reason I struggle ranking Big12 teams. Doesn't seem to be any school that hits on all points TV execs might value.
Click to expand...
Keep in mind cross border interest. Morgantown is at the far north end of West Virginia and over time has garnered a lot of tavern fans from adjoining states.
 
Oh, and KState EMAW hacks can continue to whine and moan about their supposed superiority...well, maybe they can in meat judging competitions...

Bottom line is that ISU is well placed in many of the necessary metrics...now the Big 12 simply needs to make the right decisions...
 
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knowlesjam said:
Oh, and KState EMAW hacks can continue to whine and moan about their supposed superiority...well, maybe they can in meat judging competitions...

Bottom line is that ISU is well placed in many of the necessary metrics...now the Big 12 simply needs to make the right decisions...
Click to expand...
Oh please…. They couldn’t hold a candle to our meat judging skills.
 
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isucy86 said:
I think that is an interesting exercise by SI. But not sure academics or all-sport performance is going to factor into how TV Executives value realignment prospects. I agree with cykadelic2 in that Amazon/Apple/Paramount/Peacock might value a conferences media rights different from Fox and ESPN.

Obviously Disney is an interesting party in the TV Rights negotiation as they own ESPN, Disney+ and Hulu. They are dealing from both ends of the deck: the linear programing model & subscription based streaming.
Click to expand...
I think it's about as good a guess as any have made on how to actually value teams. All of these things do factor, it's a matter of weighting. There are some serious misconceptions out there, such as:
- Basketball doesn't matter at all: For the PAC and Big 12 it actually does matter some. The ratio of basketball media value to football in the Big 12 in particular with KU is MUCH higher than the Big 10 and SEC. Football still drives it, but basketball has enough of a value where it actually makes a meaningful difference as a percent of Big 12 media dollars
- Attendance doesn't matter: Viewership is obviously a better measure of new media value, but it can be tough to get an apples to apples comparison due to opponent, time slot and network. Attendance, especially in leaner years, can get an idea of the floor of value, and tell you the "active" interest, i.e. who will seek out and pay for the product, not who just throws ESPN on for the day in the background and happens to catch whatever games are on.
- Market size is still most important: It still matters quite a bit, but there are some omissions that at least so far demonstrates conferences are not viewing this to be the case. It's hard to imagine this to be the case IF Cal and Stanford are not considered desirable, or post-OUT the PAC didn't make a play for a TCU, for example.

I'm not saying this is a great valuation, but putting a bunch of these factors, and applying some weighting IS how the conferences are going to value teams. The argument is how they are weighted. And we have to look at the moves by conferences and try to reverse engineer the weighting. We can't see UCLA, which has almost no football value, go to the Big 10 and say that only schools that bring value in football to the Big 10 are going to be taken. UCLA is simply a dance partner for USC and/or these other factors are being weighted more heavily than people think.
 
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