With the Big 12-SEC Challenge this weekend and a break from conference play, I thought it was appropriate to take a look at where the conference race is. It's also easy to do so now, because every team has played 8 conference games, has 5 more home games, and has 5 more road games.
Here are the current conference standings, just in win-loss record, organized to show the divisions that have formed so far:
Seems like a pretty big gap between #6 and #7 (as most would expect).
A look at the "Tim Floyd" standings (+1 for road win, -1 for home loss, 0 for home win/road loss) confirms this:
In fact, the disparities between each team are identical in the actual standings and the Tim Floyd standings. It's obvious that there's a top six and a bottom four.
So I wanted to compare the roads ahead for those six contenders. Like I said earlier, each will play 5 home and 5 road games still, but the opponents vary somewhat wildly:
Oklahoma has the easiest remaining schedule, with only 2 of their 5 road games against other contenders. Meanwhile, West Virginia has to play 4 more road games against the top teams in the conference and only gets 1 against the bottom tier.
Baylor and West Virginia have the benefit of being a game up on KU, ISU, and UT right now. But it looks like West Virginia's advantage is expected to go away. Baylor's could come down to how well they can protect their home court.
In terms of breaking existing ties, OU has a huge advantage over both BU and WVU with remaining schedules, and KU and ISU have an advantage over UT.
My final take-away: Texas should finish 6th. Oklahoma should finish 1st. The rest are harder to call, but I would give BU, KU, and ISU a slight advantage on WVU, who should finish 5th. If either Kansas or Iowa State win at Baylor - they become the best challenger to take down or share a title with Oklahoma. And if Baylor handles them both at home, they're in the driver's seat for 2nd/tie for 1st.
Should be a fun February + week of March to finish this out.
Here are the current conference standings, just in win-loss record, organized to show the divisions that have formed so far:
Seems like a pretty big gap between #6 and #7 (as most would expect).
A look at the "Tim Floyd" standings (+1 for road win, -1 for home loss, 0 for home win/road loss) confirms this:
In fact, the disparities between each team are identical in the actual standings and the Tim Floyd standings. It's obvious that there's a top six and a bottom four.
So I wanted to compare the roads ahead for those six contenders. Like I said earlier, each will play 5 home and 5 road games still, but the opponents vary somewhat wildly:
Oklahoma has the easiest remaining schedule, with only 2 of their 5 road games against other contenders. Meanwhile, West Virginia has to play 4 more road games against the top teams in the conference and only gets 1 against the bottom tier.
Baylor and West Virginia have the benefit of being a game up on KU, ISU, and UT right now. But it looks like West Virginia's advantage is expected to go away. Baylor's could come down to how well they can protect their home court.
In terms of breaking existing ties, OU has a huge advantage over both BU and WVU with remaining schedules, and KU and ISU have an advantage over UT.
My final take-away: Texas should finish 6th. Oklahoma should finish 1st. The rest are harder to call, but I would give BU, KU, and ISU a slight advantage on WVU, who should finish 5th. If either Kansas or Iowa State win at Baylor - they become the best challenger to take down or share a title with Oklahoma. And if Baylor handles them both at home, they're in the driver's seat for 2nd/tie for 1st.
Should be a fun February + week of March to finish this out.
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